ATL: IRENE - Models

[Rgv20]

TVCN has the center of Irene 75miles east of Miami by 96hrs.....way to close for comfort.

Yeah, and the NHC's track will follow suit inching in closer to it, I don't think they want to move the track too far east just yet, it will give eastern FL a false sense of security at this point if they do so.

In my opinion it will be best for the NHC's track to still show a landfall in florida at least on the 5pm and 10pm track update.

[Bocadude85]

TVCN has the center of Irene 75miles east of Miami by 96hrs.....way to close for comfort.

Thats certainly very close to land, far too close to discount a motion a little further west.

And about 45 miles on the closest approach to West Palm Beach.

Yes close enough to bring TS condtions to South Florida... lol 45 miles does not leave much room for error

[jinftl]

From 11am to 2pm today, Irene reached the latitude forecast point that she wasn't supposed to reach until 11pm tonight....about 100 miles east of the forecast that came out just 3 hours earlier (17.5N). In 180 minutes, the actual position ended up being as far north but 100 miles east of where the NHC put her at by 11pm tonight.

Margin of error. It exists in the short-term. In the long term, it is all about the trends of the models and not the nitty gritty details. If the consensus of models showed a storm over florida with this mornings runs, and now they show tracks just east of florida, and then tomorrow morning, the models show tracks 150 miles east of florida, that is a trend of significance.

[ROCK]

Interesting, just ran cities overdue on weather channel last night. Of Course Savannah was one of them. It has been a while since Charleston too (a few were predicted to hit Charleston but hit NC instead). The overdue people will have a heyday. At least the models are.. still leaving us out of it so far.

TWC stating one particular area is overdue is sort of wierd...since no area is overdue in the true sense of the word as it relates to hurricanes....JMO...

[sunnyday]

Looking much better for SE Fl, right? I always say that Florida looks like a sitting duck in the Atlantic, yet so many storm destined for the state manage to miss! Perhaps it dodges the bullet once again, huh? Time will tell. This is my opinion only--see the NHC site for accurate info.

[plasticup]

Granted I've only checked a few pages back in this thread only. But I haven't seen any posting by Cycloneye. It looks like he's about to get nailed. Any word on conditions there?

He just posted at 2:04 in the discussion thread.

And the "Who is online" box at the bottom shows him being active. I'm sure he knows to stay safe!

[breaking wind]

I just dont see how Hispaniola doesnt have Irene as a visitor for a good bit, very bad news for them unfortunately. On a positive note, it won't dissipate Irene but should give it a pretty good black eye. I have no faith in any model until it passes that Island nation.

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like Accuweather track is closer to the models than NHC.

[jinftl]

Agree, it is not like the troughs forecast to turn her more north are already in place and doing their magic on her track. Forecasting a system that will be turning....and not even factoring in the impact of a landmass like hispanola into that...is tricky and prone to error.

We thought Ike was heading for Miami less than 96 hours out.

I guess it is the difference between using model runs to derive your forecast vs. understanding what is happening in the environment that is causing the model runs and seeing if it is reasonable. Is there anything so concrete right now that 'seals the deal' that this will never make it west of 80W...or is it because the latest runs suggest it? If those model runs shift west tomorrow, do we start talking about a texas threat again?

[emeraldislencguy]

just saw some of the new models
it looks like it could be more of a threat to nc
i will definitely start paying attention
i really appreciate the remarks of the pro mets
yall keep up the good work

[SFLcane]

By Tuesday/Wednesday it's probably out to sea with these east trends.

[UpTheCreek]

just saw some of the new models
it looks like it could be more of a threat to nc
i will definitely start paying attention
i really appreciate the remarks of the pro mets
yall keep up the good work

Hey EI guy! Long time, no see!

It's had my attention for about a day or so! "Bears" watching, that's for sure!

[Scorpion]

By Tuesday/Wednesday it's probably out to sea with these east trends.

There is no trough that is picking it up. Absolutely not recurving. Almost no chance it goes out to sea.

[NDG]

A closer look at the 18z TVCN concensus model.
Its track has Irene within 40 miles from the Palm Beach area all the way up to the Daytona area.
Also, it shows her to move at only around 10 mph as it tracks to the east of central FL, close enough for some torrential rains and possibly large rainfall amounts.

[chris_fit]

A closer look at the 18z TVCN concensus model.
Its track has Irene within 40 miles from the Palm Beach area all the way up to the Daytona area.
Also, it shows her to move at only around 10 mph as it tracks to the east of central FL, close enough for some torrential rains and possibly large rainfall amounts.

Nice graphic. Looks like it's closest approach to FL is at the Cape on that run.

[emeraldislencguy]

thanks up the creek
so what do you think about the odds for nc

[KWT]

By Tuesday/Wednesday it's probably out to sea with these east trends.

Take a good look at the set-up aloft, its not recurving if the GFS/eCM are right...at least not before its well inland...

[TwisterFanatic]

By Tuesday/Wednesday it's probably out to sea with these east trends.

Nope. This isn't a recurve situation.

[Steve H.]

I am due west of that 2am plot on the East Central FL coast. Too close for comfort. Anything between Grand Bahama and the Peninsula is way too close. But that is looking at that one model. As was discussed before, I would be surprised if the NHC moves that far east on it's next advisory from the 11am track. Not enough data points yet to do that.

[Nimbus]

Maybe they should leave the track offshore till they know what effect Hispaniola and the first weakness are going to have on it? Its close enough that everyone on the east coast of Florida will hear about it and prepare.