ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[brunota2003]

[stormreader]

Visible is very impressive. But I can't remember the last time (if ever) that I've seen such a discrepancy between the visible (so positive) and the water vapor (so negative). Even though the 40 percent would appear too conservative for many, I think I'm going to have to go with the NHC on this (40 percent and not higher) until there's a better representation on WV (without that shear blowing everything off to the southeast).

[xironman]

Looks like it stays weak and heads NE, that low forming over the Virginia capes probably doesn't help

[wxman57]

Global models didn't initialize the low well at all. It's not surprising they don't show much development and/or are not in good agreement on a possible track. Recon isn't far from the LLC now. NE winds 15-20 kts just to its west. Not surprising winds are <30kts west of the center, as convection is minimal there.

[Sanibel]

Convection shows intensification.


Big difference now here. Disturbance setting off thunderstorms nearby. No wind.

[KWT]

Visible is very impressive. But I can't remember the last time (if ever) that I've seen such a discrepancy between the visible (so positive) and the water vapor (so negative). Even though the 40 percent would appear too conservative for many, I think I'm going to have to go with the NHC on this (40 percent and not higher) until there's a better representation on WV (without that shear blowing everything off to the southeast).

Whilst true, its clearly going to have a closed low when recon gets there and I have few doubts this is a TD...as Wxman57 said there is NO WAY a TD/TS would get downgraded if it looked like this...

I've rarely seen such a good looking system on Vis not go on to become a TD more than 12hrs later, perhaps the one exception I can remember being Dolly from 08 which looked like a TS for quite a long time whilst it was only an invest...

[drezee]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171822
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 16 20110717
181230 2802N 07922W 9813 00314 0172 +229 +169 038015 016 022 000 00
181300 2801N 07920W 9813 00315 0174 +229 +171 042015 015 021 000 03
181330 2801N 07919W 9812 00315 0173 +228 +173 038013 014 020 000 00
181400 2801N 07917W 9813 00315 0173 +228 +174 035014 014 019 000 03
181430 2801N 07915W 9816 00312 0174 +226 +175 028014 015 022 000 00
181500 2801N 07914W 9813 00315 0174 +226 +177 027014 015 021 000 00
181530 2801N 07912W 9813 00315 0173 +228 +178 032014 014 021 000 00
181600 2801N 07910W 9818 00311 0173 +230 +179 036014 015 022 000 00
181630 2801N 07909W 9813 00315 0172 +229 +181 037016 016 023 000 03
181700 2801N 07907W 9815 00311 0172 +227 +182 044017 017 026 000 00
181730 2801N 07905W 9813 00312 0170 +229 +183 048018 019 025 000 00
181800 2801N 07904W 9819 00306 0170 +228 +183 047018 019 027 000 00
181830 2801N 07902W 9814 00311 0171 +228 +184 044017 017 026 000 00
181900 2801N 07901W 9810 00315 0170 +227 +184 040016 017 023 001 00
181930 2801N 07859W 9814 00311 0170 +226 +185 029017 018 020 000 00
182000 2801N 07857W 9813 00311 0171 +225 +185 022014 015 019 000 00
182030 2801N 07856W 9813 00311 0171 +223 +185 022016 017 020 001 00
182100 2801N 07854W 9815 00310 0170 +223 +185 022016 017 021 000 00
182130 2801N 07852W 9812 00312 0170 +221 +185 020014 014 018 000 00
182200 2801N 07850W 9813 00311 0170 +220 +185 018014 015 018 000 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

The Smurf measured winds of 26 knots on the surface (no flag)...but flight level fairly unimpressive thus far on the weaker side of the system. Question is, when they reach the center, how well defined will the wind shift be?

[HURAKAN]

very impressive system

[NDG]

Still not that well organized at the surface, IMO. Looks better at the mid levels than at the surface.

[KWT]

Very impressive banding, thats a very impressive MLC if nothing else, one of the best looking invests I seen, at least on the Vis imagery!

Any circulation it seems is on the SW side of the convection from the looks of recon...

Ps, recon finding constant FL winds of 30kts and surface wind estimates are also between 28-35kts.

[brunota2003]

Look at the wind directions measured

000
URNT15 KNHC 171832
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 17 20110717
182230 2801N 07849W 9810 00314 0170 +220 +185 013015 015 018 000 00
182300 2801N 07847W 9813 00311 0170 +220 +185 011014 015 019 000 00
182330 2801N 07845W 9815 00310 0170 +220 +185 030013 014 018 000 00
182400 2801N 07844W 9815 00309 0170 +220 +185 044016 018 020 000 00
182430 2801N 07842W 9814 00309 0168 +220 +185 048017 017 019 000 03
182500 2801N 07840W 9814 00306 0166 +220 +185 041016 017 021 001 00
182530 2801N 07839W 9812 00308 0165 +219 +185 045017 017 021 000 00
182600 2801N 07837W 9814 00305 0163 +217 +185 047017 019 024 001 00
182630 2801N 07835W 9814 00304 0162 +225 +186 047019 020 021 001 00
182700 2802N 07834W 9813 00304 0162 +220 +185 047018 019 019 000 00
182730 2802N 07832W 9811 00305 0161 +218 +185 046018 018 020 000 00
182800 2802N 07831W 9817 00299 0161 +217 +186 054018 019 021 000 00
182830 2802N 07829W 9812 00304 0160 +217 +186 062017 018 020 002 00
182900 2802N 07827W 9808 00308 0161 +216 +186 076020 022 027 002 00
182930 2802N 07826W 9814 00300 0159 +218 +186 081023 024 027 000 00
183000 2803N 07824W 9809 00304 0159 +215 +185 083023 025 027 001 00
183030 2803N 07823W 9817 00299 0159 +215 +185 088025 025 029 002 00
183100 2803N 07821W 9804 00308 0158 +215 +185 093026 028 030 000 03
183130 2803N 07820W 9813 00299 0156 +215 +184 095027 028 031 001 00
183200 2804N 07818W 9857 00261 0158 +215 +184 103029 030 033 000 03
$$
;

[KWT]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171842
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 18 20110717
183230 2804N 07817W 9890 00230 0155 +217 +184 103031 031 033 000 00
183300 2804N 07816W 9882 00235 0153 +217 +184 107030 031 033 000 00
183330 2804N 07814W 9885 00232 0153 +221 +184 109032 032 035 001 00
183400 2805N 07813W 9885 00233 0153 +221 +185 110032 032 034 000 03
183430 2805N 07811W 9884 00236 0155 +220 +186 108031 032 033 000 03
183500 2805N 07810W 9885 00233 0154 +219 +186 109031 032 033 000 03
183530 2805N 07810W 9885 00233 0156 +218 +187 109030 032 033 001 00
183600 2806N 07807W 9884 00235 0156 +217 +188 109029 030 034 000 00
183630 2806N 07805W 9884 00237 0157 +219 +188 108030 031 033 000 00
183700 2807N 07804W 9885 00235 0156 +218 +188 109029 031 033 001 00
183730 2807N 07802W 9884 00236 0156 +219 +188 110030 030 032 001 00
183800 2807N 07801W 9882 00238 0156 +217 +189 113028 028 031 001 00
183830 2808N 07759W 9885 00236 0157 +216 +189 114027 028 032 000 00
183900 2808N 07758W 9883 00238 0157 +215 +189 114027 028 031 000 00
183930 2808N 07756W 9884 00238 0157 +218 +190 113029 030 032 000 00
184000 2809N 07755W 9884 00238 0159 +216 +190 111028 029 031 000 03
184030 2809N 07754W 9884 00239 0161 +215 +190 112027 027 031 001 00
184100 2809N 07752W 9884 00241 0161 +215 +190 111026 026 030 000 00
184130 2809N 07750W 9884 00239 0161 +215 +191 109024 025 030 001 00
184200 2810N 07749W 9883 00242 0162 +214 +191 111024 025 030 000 00
$$

[Aric Dunn]

34 -35 kt unflagged winds from recon

[NDG]

Question is with TD force winds and a pressure of only 1015mb found so far, will they upgrage it to a TD?

[Hurricaneman]

If im guessing, I think they will upgrade but only if the circulation is pronounced, which it seems to be

[JTE50]

822
WHXX01 KWBC 171846
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1846 UTC SUN JUL 17 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110717 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110717 1800 110718 0600 110718 1800 110719 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.9N 78.2W 27.8N 78.7W 27.9N 79.3W 28.1N 79.2W
BAMD 27.9N 78.2W 27.4N 78.4W 27.2N 78.6W 27.2N 78.9W
BAMM 27.9N 78.2W 27.6N 78.6W 27.6N 79.0W 27.6N 79.1W
LBAR 27.9N 78.2W 27.7N 78.5W 28.1N 79.2W 28.8N 79.9W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 46KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 46KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110719 1800 110720 1800 110721 1800 110722 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.4N 78.8W 29.3N 77.0W 30.5N 74.3W 31.7N 70.8W
BAMD 27.4N 79.2W 27.9N 80.0W 28.2N 81.3W 28.7N 83.9W
BAMM 27.9N 79.0W 28.7N 77.6W 29.2N 76.0W 30.1N 74.5W
LBAR 29.8N 80.3W 30.7N 80.7W 32.1N 79.7W 33.9N 78.6W
SHIP 50KTS 50KTS 44KTS 37KTS
DSHP 50KTS 50KTS 44KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.9N LONCUR = 78.2W DIRCUR = 155DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 28.8N LONM12 = 78.5W DIRM12 = 151DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 29.8N LONM24 = 79.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[northjaxpro]

Question is with TD force winds and a pressure of only 1015mb found so far, will they upgrage it to a TD?

Good question NDG. I am thinking NHC will probably go ahead and classify it as a TD. Pressure at 1014-1015 mb will hold it as a TD. Recon still in there, so we will know all the findings shortly.

[brunota2003]

My GE stopped updating

EDIT: it's back

[KWT]

Pretty agressive forecast from SHIP there it has to be said, gets upto 50kts, whilst the global models do pretty much nothing with it.