#268 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Aug 25, 2011 4:02 pm
UP TO 115 KNOTS!
WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 16.5N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 124.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.0N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.1N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.2N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.5N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 22.3N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.6N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 24.6N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 123.8E.
TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM
HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND SHOWS A 10 NM EYE
WITH SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 100 TO 130 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND EXCELLENT
DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE REMAINING PERIPHERIES. TY 14W CONTINUES TO
TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). A 25/12Z UPPER LEVEL SOUNDING INDICATES DEEP EASTERLY FLOW,
ALTHOUGH STILL WEAK. TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING POLEWARD
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR.
TY 14W SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IS SKIRTS THE COAST OF LUZON.
IT WILL THEN RE-INTENSIFY WITH IMPROVED OUTFLOW INTO THE APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT; HOWEVER IT
HAS BEEN UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE PERSISTENT MOTION. THEREFORE, THIS
FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST IS FARTHER
WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS BECAUSE THE STR TO THE NORTH IS
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION IS
NO LONGER CONSIDERED PLAUSIBLE WITH THE INCREASING DISTANCE FROM TS
15W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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