ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[South Texas Storms]

current steering....would suggest west or WNW....over all I see two areas with low level turning....one moving wnw closer to the Yucatan and another more north towards the NGOM which looks to moving wnw as well...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

I see the same thing Rock. That is why I question the GFS showing this going NW from the get go. Not gonna happen with that ridge to its north.

[Buck]

Obviously not a good analog for 93L considering it is August and this storm was in October, but talk of it meandering in the gulf reminded me of this strange bird that wandered in the gulf the first year I started tracking storms.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at199517.asp

She certainly was memorable for lots of reasons.

[Ptarmigan]

If the storm is large like Frances, a good portion of the Gulf coast can get rain.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like we will probably have a depression sooner rather than later... tomorrow afternoon of course when recon gets there.. lol realistically before than but.....

And from my unerstanding, it's probably going to be sitting in the gulf of mexico warm bathtub for several days, correct?

From the 8 PM TWO.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

yep got to love those technicalities.. the definition of a tropical cyclone does not include shear... lol closed well defined warm core low ... even barely even says much about convection.. clearly this has convection and the LLC is still developing not quite well defined as of yet but its doing so quite rapidly so they will of course wait till recon unless is ends up looking like a TS before they get there.. was just saying...

[txagwxman]

Well back 1st time since winter...

And the models of course have to be a mess...if the GFS right, then no worries, but that model always tends to pull systems too far north too quick.

Problem later in the forecast is the ridge building behind the trough, that would push Lee back into the Gulf...that is why the ECMWF did what it did. It should be a dp by tomorrow.

[surfer_dude]

OK, What's the ETA for this event....? I have a road trip planned for Labor Day from Houston to Atlanta GA. Scheduled to leave Houston Late Thursday Night around midnight taking I-10 East from Houston through Mobile, Alabama then cutting north from their to Atlanta. I'll be Departing Atlanta early Monday Morning to drive back to Houston. I'd hate driving through a Storm/Hurricane coming or going So I need to make a decision on if it will be safe to take this road trip and not get stuck somewhere waiting it out.

around tue/wed of next week

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 93, 2011090100, , BEST, 0, 245N, 875W, 30, 1010, DB

[txagwxman]

In 4 days the Euro pulls that upper-level trough west into Brownsville, thus providing excellent outflow for 93L if it is still in the Gulf. Could be very interesting set up if the Euro is right.

[South Texas Storms]

Well back 1st time since winter...

And the models of course have to be a mess...if the GFS right, then no worries, but that model always tends to pull systems too far north too quick.

Problem later in the forecast is the ridge building behind the trough, that would push Lee back into the Gulf...that is why the ECMWF did what it did. It should be a dp by tomorrow.

Welcome back txagwxman! I'm now one semester closer to becoming an Aggie meteorologist like you!
I agree with you about the GFS tending to pull systems too far north. Do you agree with today's 12z Euro?

[Macrocane]

Did you noticed that they're not using the word subtropical anymore, I didn't understand what could have made this subtropical anyway.

[Buck]

It does look like a big mess right now, but these things can get their act together quick... especially over the boiling gulf.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

429
WHXX01 KWBC 010024
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0024 UTC THU SEP 1 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110901 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110901  0000   110901  1200   110902  0000   110902  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.5N  87.5W   26.0N  89.5W   27.2N  91.1W   28.0N  92.6W
BAMD    24.5N  87.5W   25.5N  88.8W   26.3N  89.9W   27.0N  90.6W
BAMM    24.5N  87.5W   25.7N  89.2W   26.6N  90.7W   27.3N  91.8W
LBAR    24.5N  87.5W   25.7N  89.1W   27.0N  90.5W   27.9N  91.7W
SHIP        30KTS          34KTS          43KTS          51KTS
DSHP        30KTS          34KTS          43KTS          51KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110903  0000   110904  0000   110905  0000   110906  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    28.3N  93.5W   26.7N  94.2W   25.4N  90.4W   28.6N  87.4W
BAMD    27.9N  90.9W   28.8N  90.9W   29.1N  91.2W   28.0N  90.9W
BAMM    27.6N  92.3W   27.0N  91.3W   28.9N  88.2W   31.5N  87.7W
LBAR    28.6N  92.4W   29.6N  93.1W   29.8N  93.2W   29.8N  92.3W
SHIP        63KTS          80KTS          83KTS          80KTS
DSHP        63KTS          80KTS          83KTS          48KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  24.5N LONCUR =  87.5W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  23.6N LONM12 =  86.5W DIRM12 = 320DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  21.4N LONM24 =  84.5W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[txagwxman]

Well back 1st time since winter...

And the models of course have to be a mess...if the GFS right, then no worries, but that model always tends to pull systems too far north too quick.

Problem later in the forecast is the ridge building behind the trough, that would push Lee back into the Gulf...that is why the ECMWF did what it did. It should be a dp by tomorrow.

Welcome back txagwxman! I'm now one semester closer to becoming an Aggie meteorologist like you!
I agree with you about the GFS tending to pull systems too far north. Do you agree with today's 12z Euro?

Not to sure yet...although UKMET liked it too. A few ECMWF ensemble members like the GFS solution.

[KWT]

Hmmm interesting to see the NHC go as high as 60%, they've gotta have a good reason to go that high quite so quickly...

I'm guessing the strong model support for development is also helping to boost the confidence.

[Dean4Storms]

I think the near 90F Sea Surface Temps will help this system deepen with marginal upper level wind shear. I don't think it will need ideal conditions with all that heat energy.

[SootyTern]

Obviously not a good analog for 93L considering it is August and this storm was in October, but talk of it meandering in the gulf reminded me of this strange bird that wandered in the gulf the first year I started tracking storms.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at199517.asp

She certainly was memorable for lots of reasons.

I remember that one. Had the Police song stuck in my head for days!

[Texashawk]

Well, let's not get TOO excited in Texas...
After all, Texas *did* swallow an entire tropical storm!!
RIP, Danny. RIP.

[Rgv20]

0z 850mb Vorticity certainly looking good this evening.

[BigB0882]

This disappeared off the graphic, has it been repositioned?

[surfer_dude]

models have this thing all over. And I am afraid they are under-estimating its intensity. We could easily have a Category 3 on our hands before Sunday. Conditions are great for development and the dry air to the north has lifted out.

[/quote][/quote]

I don't think anyone should prepare for a Cat 3 just yet. As far as intensity goes, we cant be sure what Cat it will be--What is certain is its going to be a very large storm, especially since there's an 80% chance the low over the Bay of Campeche will get pushed into Invest 93l. You are right though, the ingredients are there.