ATL: IRENE - Models

[KWT]

Well, I think the David '79 track would probably be the best reference to use potentially with Irene in regards to the potential track she may take in a few days. Plus David was on a very similar track through the Caribbean as Irene is currently as well.

The obvious difference is David came into Hispaniola as a 5 and emerged far weaker system, sure it did strengthen but quite a few models suggests this could be a more signifcant hurricane then David was after Hispaniola.

[SeminoleWind]

Looks like those models that take it into the northeast Bahamas well off the Florida coast take it north of Puerto Rico.

On its current trajectory thats not happrning.

yes that is why i am not totally sold on a Carolina hit yet the current movement versus what model are saying.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

See this, the shift that has happened in the past 24 hr, is why I said yesterday until an actual defined llc formed no need getting hyped over theoretical model storm varients. Matter of fact things will likely still flip around for awhile, perhaps several days, yet before a good consensus solution is finally reached. In closing, trust the NHC cone nothing else.

[JPmia]

Looks like we have a new trend wnw to the central bahamas and then nnw with a landfall in the carolinas.. This will be a powerful hurricane I imagine. I am breathing a little sigh of relief (only a little). I won't be completely sold until I see models with the G-IV data inputted in them.

[Tampa_God]

I don't think the NHC will move their track much in their 5 pm advisory. I don't think they're a 100% convince with a more east location of this storm come Thursday/Friday.

[KWT]

BAMS is quite a cool track, goes due WNW, then due west, then sharp turn due north till 96hrs!

The TVCN looks a little west of where the global models are overalll so they may just go east to reflect the strong agreement by the best global models and the HWRF.

[northjaxpro]

Well, I think the David '79 track would probably be the best reference to use potentially with Irene in regards to the potential track she may take in a few days. Plus David was on a very similar track through the Caribbean as Irene is currently as well.

The obvious difference is David came into Hispaniola as a 5 and emerged far weaker system, sure it did strengthen but quite a few models suggests this could be a more signifcant hurricane then David was after Hispaniola.

Yeah, plus David went on after traversing Hispaniola to move over Eastern Cuba to get downgraded briefly to tropical storm status before re-emerging over the Bahamas to restrengthen back to a Cat 2 storm.

Hopefully God forbid Irene will never reach that catrosphophic level of intensity, but now it's possible that she may miss interaction with Cuba after dealing with Hispaniola if the current model trends hold.

[Nimbus]

Ivanhater, what is impressive now is the agreement that this won't go over Cuba and once it emerges from Hispaniola its got a nearly clean run when it comes to strengthening in 48-60hrs till landfall...

The CMC is a right outlier BUT even that run is probably close enough to the Outer Banks at that strength to cause signicant problems.

Its fairly flat along the north coast of Hispaniola so the high mountains may just tighten up the core and strip some of the outer bands. It would be different if Irene were tracking up from the south over the high mountains, the low level circulation would get shredded in that case.

Could theoretically get to Cat 2 off Florida or Cat 3 further up the gulf stream if it takes that route towards the Carolinas.

[KWT]

Just one hour till the next GFS run begins, I suspect a more northerly first 24-48hrs followed by a broadly similar track to before, maybe focusing in on GA/SC this time.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Dont think it will shift off of FL for the time being...Not saying it wont eventually but one of thier favs in the GFDL is being stubborn and still well west of rest...I say they keep the 5:00 over FL till GFDL lays off...

[bella_may]

It'd be funny if the nhc track shifted west since everybody is saying it will shift east. Not saying it will happen, but it will be a shock if it does LOL

[breaking wind]

When this clears Hispaniola, the NHC track will be accurate to 75 miles in either direction, until than, everyone is just using their ouija board.

[KWT]

Dont think it will shift off of FL for the time being...Not saying it wont eventually but one of thier favs in the GFDL is being stubborn and still well west of rest...I say they keep the 5:00 over FL till GFDL lays off...

Given the current models and importantly the consensus line, i suspect they will go offashore and take it more or less up the east coast of Florida as a strengthening hurricane, probably peaking it as a 2 this time...

We will see soon enough what they think of the current round of model forecasts!

[vacanechaser]

Dont think it will shift off of FL for the time being...Not saying it wont eventually but one of thier favs in the GFDL is being stubborn and still well west of rest...I say they keep the 5:00 over FL till GFDL lays off...

Given the current models and importantly the consensus line, i suspect they will go offashore and take it more or less up the east coast of Florida as a strengthening hurricane, probably peaking it as a 2 this time...

We will see soon enough what they think of the current round of model forecasts!

agree.. florida still well within the cone.. but east and up the coast..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Emmett_Brown]

Sorry to ask a silly question, but for me and those that might not have the link, can you share a link to the Euro and GFS ensembles... I lost my link and this thread is just too big to find it, although i know others have posted it.

[Blown Away]

Dont think it will shift off of FL for the time being...Not saying it wont eventually but one of thier favs in the GFDL is being stubborn and still well west of rest...I say they keep the 5:00 over FL till GFDL lays off...

They will do the skim the SFL coast with landfall at NE FL/Ga, which will never happen.

[SFLcane]

Sorry to ask a silly question, but for me and those that might not have the link, can you share a link to the Euro and GFS ensembles... I lost my link and this thread is just too big to find it, although i know others have posted it.

GFS...http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html

EURO...http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html

[boca]

As soon as South Florida is in the 5 day cone I usually breath a little easier,but thats just me.

[tolakram]

Please, when you post images, make a copy instead of direct linking.

copy of the track plot

[tolakram]

copy of Euro landfall 144H