ATL: IRENE - Models

[Mouton]

My sense is it passes a little north of the Hispanoila coastline...little intereaction means little weakening, if any. Something is pulling these models north, perhaps they see something in the coming troughs to do it but I think it is over done. Were I to guess at this point, and given it is a ts now and not a developed HC, I say a path very close to the coast of Florida, slight west of due north with the closest passage near cape Canaveral as a cat 3 and then into the Brunswick to Savannah area for land fall then exiting NC near Wilmington.

Just my guess, not in anyway an official forecast and probably just the ramblings of someone with a keyboard and some time to kill.

[Dean4Storms]

Just about all those 18z Models show Irene passing to the north or north side of PR already gaining latitude and that is NOT happening. The center is now near St. Croix and still moving more westward looking to pass just south of PR.

[Rainband]

I agree and that's why the NHC is being cautious. West shift coming soon imho.

[Emmett_Brown]

Sorry to ask a silly question, but for me and those that might not have the link, can you share a link to the Euro and GFS ensembles... I lost my link and this thread is just too big to find it, although i know others have posted it.

GFS...http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html

EURO...http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html

Excellent, thanks for your help

[boca]

Lets hope for the best as far as track goes for us in South Florida with a miss to the east.

[Battlebrick]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chsv3

60 kt (70 mph) gust.

[tolakram]

Image save, CMC 120H

[EDR1222]

It certainly appears as if the models are starting to shift east. It will be interesting to see if the GFDL also shifts further east in the next set of model runs and how it will effect the NHC forecast track for tonight, or perhaps tomorrow mornings advisory. I am hoping to wake up and find a signficant shift east with the NHC's cone. The downside obviously would be more time over water and more of a possibility of a threat to our friends in the Carolinas.

[tolakram]

Image save, GFDL 126H

[OuterBanker]

5pm tpc track puts landfall near Miami tracking to Orlando.

[Emmett_Brown]

The shift in the models between 24 hours ago and now is pretty big... And I dont think it is all due to the center relocation. The ridge is a bit weaker at day 5 today than it was depicted yesterday. Makes me wonder if this is just an anomaly, and that a shift back to the W is possible. I suppose this is why the NHC put their track along the W side of the envelop.

[KWT]

Doubt there will be much in the way of change, the only reason the models swung east was because the storm reformed a good 2N of where it was expected to be at this point and that really does make a difference in terms of ecventual track.

Track reasonaing however is exactly the same as it has always been.

[tolakram]

saved image, HWRF 126H

[brunota2003]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chsv3

60 kt (70 mph) gust.

Again...I don't think that is accurate. All the other gusts around it are in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Error perhaps.

[tolakram]

saved image, HFIP experimental, 126H

[Meteorcane]

saved image, HWRF 126H

Florida seems in the clear I would say based on that.

[KWT]

Interesting tolakram, looks further west and very close to the GFS overall...

[TwisterFanatic]

saved image, HWRF 126H

http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/7830/zplot.png

Florida seems in the clear I would say based on that.

Not to be rude, but Florida is HARDLY in the clear right now.

[CronkPSU]

saved image, HWRF 126H

Florida seems in the clear I would say based on that.

i do not agree with your definition of clear at all

[Portastorm]

saved image, HWRF 126H

http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/7830/zplot.png

Florida seems in the clear I would say based on that.

Not to be rude, but Florida is HARDLY in the clear right now.

I believe the point was that Florida was in the clear if that particular model run were to verify. Meteorcane was not saying Florida is in the clear generally.

Easy folks ... take a deep breath. We have a long ways to go on this one.