ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[GTStorm]

up to 70 mph winds at 11...993 mb

and the cone is right of the 5pm cone...good call guys, i was wrong

landfall at Jacksonville ????? Really ????? Wow.

[gatorcane]

Cone moved exactly like I thought it would

[Swimdude]

And flirting with Cat 2 at the 96 hour mark. Can't say I'm surprised, but that 90mph wind forecast (bumped up from 85mph at 96hr last advisory) at 96hrs just made me realize how serious this might be.

[maxintensity]

Interesting the NHC still only expects a cat 1 out of this. I think the forecasters over there might be in for some shock and awe if GFS/Hwrf/Ecmwf/GFDL/CMC are correct on intensity.

[NDG]

[ozonepete]

Cone moved exactly like I thought it would

Yep. I expected that too. And it won't be the last shift eastward.

[cpdaman]

I think theres lots of q's to be answerd still. The slowing tonite imo is gonna cause her to spend 2x longer over puerto rico and i think it will be a Weak t.s when it exits the nw side of puerto rico tomm. Seems no one really thinks 4000 foot mountains at about 10 mph movement across the length of p.r will substatially weaken her. Lol. I Wish i could wager a bet on these sort of things

[Tampa_God]

Interesting the NHC still only expects a cat 1 out of this. I think the forecasters over there might be in for some shock and awe if GFS/Hwrf/Ecmwf/GFDL/CMC are correct on intensity.

Agreed, especially if it is only over N. Hispaniola for a short period of time.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Cone moved exactly like I thought it would

Still landfall in PBC just last point east in Jax rather than Orlando

[Kohlecane]

up to 70 mph winds at 11...993 mb

and the cone is right of the 5pm cone...good call guys, i was wrong

landfall at Jacksonville ????? Really ????? Wow.

kinda weird how this keeps it fairly weak

[Dave]

[JtSmarts]

Interesting the NHC still only expects a cat 1 out of this. I think the forecasters over there might be in for some shock and awe if GFS/Hwrf/Ecmwf/GFDL/CMC are correct on intensity.

It's difficult because Hispaniola will play such a HUGE role in Irene's future intensity. I think the NHC has the right idea in trying to balance between a weaker storm that travels nearly straight across HISP and struggles and a monster that clears the island.

[northjaxpro]

up to 70 mph winds at 11...993 mb

and the cone is right of the 5pm cone...good call guys, i was wrong

landfall at Jacksonville ????? Really ????? Wow.

Yeah, GTStorm, I see that on the latest projected 11p.m. track. We just have to see how this evolves, but no doubt this is going to be some very tense times ahead for the next 4-5 days I can tell you that for sure.

[gatorcane]

Cone moved exactly like I thought it would

Still landfall in PBC just last point east in Jax rather than Orlando

Yeah maybe in Jupiter it looks like

[vacanechaser]

Cone moved exactly like I thought it would

couldnt agree more gator!

i would suspect that will continue if the eastward trend sustains itself..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Swimdude]

Interesting the NHC still only expects a cat 1 out of this. I think the forecasters over there might be in for some shock and awe if GFS/Hwrf/Ecmwf/GFDL/CMC are correct on intensity.

I think you're right. And what's even more of a concern is that the current forecast only barely takes Irene over the Northern edge of Dominican Rep / Haiti. Good news for those folks of course, but that could easily mean a Cat 3-4 for the East coast instead of a Cat 1.

Let's put it this way--if the track shifts HALF as much to the North at the next advisory as it did between 5:00 and 11:00 today, this storm will miss DR/Haiti and we'll likely have something ugly on our hands.

[ozonepete]

I think theres lots of q's to be answerd still. The slowing tonite imo is gonna cause her to spend 2x longer over puerto rico and i think it will be a Weak t.s when it exits the nw side of puerto rico tomm. Seems no one really thinks 4000 foot mountains at about 10 mph movement across the length of p.r will substatially weaken her. Lol. I Wish i could wager a bet on these sort of things

The reason it won't weaken substantially is because the island is small. For most of tonight's crossing there will probably still be some part of the inner core over water, and there will be a moisture feed at low levels from all quadrants.

[summersquall]

And flirting with Cat 2 at the 96 hour mark. Can't say I'm surprised, but that 90mph wind forecast (bumped up from 85mph at 96hr last advisory) at 96hrs just made me realize h I96hr how serious this might be.

My thoughts exactly. This will be my first storm down here (me and my dog). Intensity/probabilty peaks at the 96hr mark. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

[GTStorm]

Cone moved exactly like I thought it would

are thinking more eastward shifts? when it is all said and done, I see this trending towards an upper SC / Wilmington NC landfall. Seems like for storms in the past, once the models latched onto a weakness in the ridge, it got stronger as each run progresses and the track shifted accordingly. Maybe that's just perception. Any current data out there to support a trend like this for Irene?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220259
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 30 20110822
024900 1634N 06529W 8433 01564 0099 +160 //// 275013 014 014 000 01
024930 1634N 06527W 8431 01568 0099 +161 //// 270014 015 013 000 01
025000 1634N 06525W 8432 01565 0095 +165 //// 264016 016 012 000 01
025030 1634N 06523W 8434 01563 0095 +165 +164 259016 016 014 000 00
025100 1634N 06521W 8432 01565 0094 +158 //// 239016 017 029 011 01
025130 1634N 06519W 8455 01541 //// +145 //// 240015 020 033 011 01
025200 1634N 06518W 8433 01565 0097 +157 //// 259020 023 026 007 01
025230 1634N 06516W 8429 01569 0095 +165 +163 250020 021 015 001 00
025300 1634N 06514W 8434 01563 0096 +165 //// 243019 020 014 000 01
025330 1634N 06512W 8433 01564 0096 +165 //// 238019 020 015 000 01
025400 1634N 06510W 8436 01561 0096 +165 +164 236021 021 015 000 00
025430 1634N 06509W 8434 01565 0098 +163 //// 236022 022 014 000 01
025500 1634N 06507W 8436 01563 0097 +165 //// 233021 021 015 000 01
025530 1634N 06505W 8433 01565 0097 +165 +163 228021 021 017 000 00
025600 1634N 06503W 8434 01565 0097 +166 +160 222021 021 014 000 00
025630 1634N 06501W 8437 01562 0095 +170 +156 220022 022 014 000 00
025700 1634N 06459W 8430 01568 0097 +167 +158 220023 023 013 000 00
025730 1634N 06458W 8434 01565 0098 +167 +155 213024 025 010 000 00
025800 1634N 06456W 8432 01569 0098 +167 +154 209024 025 011 000 00
025830 1634N 06454W 8433 01567 0099 +165 +153 207025 026 010 001 00
$$
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