ATL: IRENE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
plasticup

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2781 Postby plasticup » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:46 pm

fci wrote:
sunnyday wrote:Florida is just a very blessed state most of the time as far as storms go. I know--andrew, terrible storm, Jeanne, Frances, and Wilma, too==but all in all, something usually, usually, not always, takes it away from the state. Florida looks so vulnerable out in the water, but it must have some kind of protection going on! 8-) Just my opinion--see NHC products for accurate info.


Particularly South Florida.
Considering how we are exposed, one would expect more hits than we get. That little spurt with the three storms notwithstanding.

Of course there are other places in the state with the "shields" that have kept them safer.....Tampa, Jacksonville........

Well, given that most storms approach from the southeast, you do have mountainous Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba to disrupt oncoming storms and protect you a bit. They are the only things saving you from Irene right now. Without those two tall islands you'd be ....
Pardon my French.
Last edited by plasticup on Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3242
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2782 Postby chris_fit » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:46 pm

New GFDL out yet?
0 likes   

User avatar
sunnyday
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1590
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 8:16 pm

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2783 Postby sunnyday » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:47 pm

Brian Norcross just said on TWC that So Fl, and the whole peninsula of Florida, are in an increased risk zone now. He said it is in a medium risk zone. Why would that be if the storm is going well east of Fl? This is confusing and to be honest, sort of upsetting. 8-)
0 likes   

User avatar
pgoss11
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 702
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:55 pm

Re:

#2784 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:49 pm

KWT wrote:HWRF bends back pretty close to NW in the end, goes quite far east by 96hrs but the bendback is quite impressive...as is the storms power at that point...take that track and Irene will be our first major hurricane...


Do you have a link to that HWRF run KWT? Thanks!
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2785 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:49 pm

sunnyday wrote:Brian Norcross just said on TWC that So Fl, and the whole peninsula of Florida, are in an increased risk zone now. He said it is in a medium risk zone. Why would that be if the storm is going well east of Fl? This is confusing and to be honest, sort of upsetting. 8-)

Because it's not going well east yet, and FL is indeed in an increased risk zone until a pass to the east actually happens days from now.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
vacanechaser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1461
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Portsmouth, Va
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2786 Postby vacanechaser » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:49 pm

sunnyday wrote:Brian Norcross just said on TWC that So Fl, and the whole peninsula of Florida, are in an increased risk zone now. He said it is in a medium risk zone. Why would that be if the storm is going well east of Fl? This is confusing and to be honest, sort of upsetting. 8-)



because they are not going to go against nhc... so the forecast shows a stronger storm hitting florida.. hence the increased zone remark...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
0 likes   
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#2787 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:53 pm

What does any of the discussion about the kind of impacts FL could expect have to do with models?
0 likes   

User avatar
mf_dolphin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17758
Age: 68
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 2:05 pm
Location: St Petersburg, FL
Contact:

#2788 Postby mf_dolphin » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:53 pm

FOLKS THIS THREAD IS FOR MODEL DISCUSSION. Keep the rest of the track discussion in the regular thread
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2789 Postby rockyman » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:54 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
mf_dolphin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17758
Age: 68
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 2:05 pm
Location: St Petersburg, FL
Contact:

#2790 Postby mf_dolphin » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:55 pm

Posts that do not directly pertain to a model run will be deleted by the staff.
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#2791 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:55 pm

18z GFDL running. 12 hours out, west of previous run.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL012.gif
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2792 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:56 pm



Key will be to see whether it continues to be a west outlier with the UKMO or whether it comes into line with all the other models...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
sunnyday
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1590
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 8:16 pm

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2793 Postby sunnyday » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:56 pm

I apologize. I meant to post my questions in the discussion section. 8-)
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#2794 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:58 pm

The system follows the other global models at 36hrs, maybe a smidge south of the consensus but not that far really...

The key is whether it actually lifts out or not from 36hrs onwards.

Edit---nope still heading due west at 48hrs, so ignoring the global models for now!
Last edited by KWT on Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#2795 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:58 pm

36 hours, a little more north than the previous run:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL036.gif
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
vacanechaser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1461
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Portsmouth, Va
Contact:

Re:

#2796 Postby vacanechaser » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:59 pm

KWT wrote:The system follows the other global models at 36hrs, maybe a smidge south of the consensus but not that far really...

The key is whether it actually lifts out or not from 36hrs onwards.



it doesn't.. or so it seems.. looks to head south of cuba...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
0 likes   
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20016
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2797 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:00 pm

saved image

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

Scorpion

#2798 Postby Scorpion » Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:00 pm

GFDL still very western outlier.. seems to just send it straight over the islands to get ripped apart
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#2799 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:01 pm

Tracking along E.Cuba at 60hrs:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL060.gif

Looks like the GFS run from yesterday...much further west already then the other models, heading close to Caribbean...

Think the mountions of hispaniola must be messing with the system on the GFDL, can't explain it any other way!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#2800 Postby rockyman » Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:01 pm

GFDL: Ridging is slightly stronger this run through 78 hours
0 likes   


Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests