ATL: IRENE - Models

[DESTRUCTION5]

When I look at the GFDL model notice a fine detail with it.

It takes the system over Hispaniola, weakens it, moves it west since it becomes a shallower system...until eastern Cuba, then it starts to feel the weakness. The Euro and GFS are missing this fine detail...hmmm

The interaction with Hispaniola can certainly influence the track so stay tuned.

But still it is tough to go against the Euro and GFS.

I expect an east shift in the track at 11...line offshore Florida but still left of the consensus track.

I think they will want to see another run of the 00z Euro before commiting

Nope...GFDL went further west..Its one of their babies...They wont budge till it does..

[GTStorm]

Cant tell what the the Model is but the one near Savanna has it at a C 4 BOMBaladomdom

Edit:http://orcasystems.ca/zoo.jpg

sweet...exactly where we want to be, right in the crosshairs at least 5 days out...pretty much guarantees that we will be spared !!! (but I do feel bad for others who will have to deal w/ Irene)

[SeminoleWind]

i don't think the 11 pm track will change at all, i have been thinking all day this east shift in the models is bogus. i think they are over doing the weakness and underestimation the ridge, if this was 2 weeks from now i would bite.

[northjaxpro]

I don't think we can discount the "hispaniola effect" as having perhaps a major impact on the models. If Irene tracks across those mountains, it'll weaken with even a center reformation. I'm not going to get too keen on the ultimate landfall until we see what happens there.

Well if it tracks On the northern side of Hispaniola there's virtually no Mountainous terrain there, so may not stop it to much, would have to stay on a southernly track across to really get messed with

I thought yesterday right after Irene was classified a TS and the center reformed farther north that the chances of the system either skirting or even just missing Hispaniola on the northern coast of that island was increasing. Tonight, I think it is even more probable now that Irene is now officially moving on a west/northwest heading and the fact that is intensifying again tonight.

If Irene skirts by Hispaniola, the SE U.S. and the Bahamas I feel will likely be dealing with the threat of a major hurricane similar in size to past destructive storms like Floyd in '99 and Hugo in '89 .

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Good point gator. We should pay attention to the model runs but really pay attention to what happens with Irene as she nears and goes over Hispaniola. If she slows down at all and falls apart things could get really interesting as the trough will be pulling out and the low level steering currents take over because she would be so much more of a shallow system. IMO that will be the most important time frame to see exactly what will happen as far as future track goes. And of course if ridging is stronger and trough weaker/flatter.

[calmbeforestorm1]

When I look at the GFDL model notice a fine detail with it.

It takes the system over Hispaniola, weakens it, moves it west since it becomes a shallower system...until eastern Cuba, then it starts to feel the weakness. The Euri and GFS are missing this fine detail...hmmm

The interaction with Hispaniola can ceratainly influence the track so stay tuned.

But still it us tough to go against the Euro and GFS.

I expect a right shift in the track at 11...line offshore Florida but still left of the consensus track.

I think they will want to see the 00z Euro.

The difference is that the Euro and GFS both have Irene just skimming the coast of Hispanola and there fore not weakening it so much. The GFDL path takes more of the meat of the Island and thus a weaker storm going west more .

[pgoss11]

I don't think we can discount the "hispaniola effect" as having perhaps a major impact on the models. If Irene tracks across those mountains, it'll weaken with even a center reformation. I'm not going to get too keen on the ultimate landfall until we see what happens there.

Well if it tracks On the northern side of Hispaniola there's virtually no Mountainous terrain there, so may not stop it to much, would have to stay on a southernly track across to really get messed with

I thought yesterday right after Irene was classified a TS and the center reformed farther north that the chances of the system either skirting or even just missing Hispaniola on the northern coast of that island was increasing. Tonight, I think it is even more probable now that Irene is now officially moving on a west/northwest heading and the fact that is it intensifying again tonight.

If Irene skirts by Hispaniola, the SE U.S. and the Bahamas I feel will likely be dealing with the threat of a major hurricane similar in size to past destructive storms like Floyd in '99 and Hugo in '89 .

I fear you may be right. This could yet be another weather disaster in the making for the US. Such a horrible year for weather disasters. Irene will probably reach Hurricane status sometime tomorrow.

[Stormcenter]

Except for some notable exceptions discussed already many times on this board the NHC is pretty accurate 5 days out
and lethal 3 days out. IMO

Cant tell what the the Model is but the one near Savanna has it at a C 4 BOMBaladomdom

Edit:http://orcasystems.ca/zoo.jpg

sweet...exactly where we want to be, right in the crosshairs at least 5 days out...pretty much guarantees that we will be spared !!! (but I do feel bad for others who will have to deal w/ Irene)

[SouthDadeFish]

From everything I've gathered, the reason most of the models have Irene missing Florida to the east now is that they have it only brushing Hispaniola and not weakening as much as previously forecast. As a result, the more intact storm strengthens quicker and the trough has a greater influence on it. However, if Hispaniola weakens the storm more than anticipated, such as the GFDL predicts, we could easily see a more westward track than most of the models are currently forecasting. In my eyes, Hispaniola is the ultimate wild card and we won't know much more until we see what Hispaniola does to Irene.

This is just my opinion and not a professional forecast.

[ronjon]

Actually some of the other consensus models are pretty close to the NHC track like CGUN, GUNA, and TCCN. Perhaps a slight nudge to the east at 11 pm. I know that NHC respects the GFDL so they may wait for another cycle of model runs. The GFS 20 member ensemble model now shows there are 9 tracking over the FL peninula, 9 tracking offshore in the Bahamas, and 2 that dissipate the storm over Hispaniola/Cuba.

[Kohlecane]

When I look at the GFDL model notice a fine detail with it.

It takes the system over Hispaniola, weakens it, moves it west since it becomes a shallower system...until eastern Cuba, then it starts to feel the weakness. The Euri and GFS are missing this fine detail...hmmm

The interaction with Hispaniola can ceratainly influence the track so stay tuned.

But still it us tough to go against the Euro and GFS.

I expect a right shift in the track at 11...line offshore Florida but still left of the consensus track.

I think they will want to see the 00z Euro.

The difference is that the Euro and GFS both have Irene just skimming the coast of Hispanola and there fore not weakening it so much. The GFDL path takes more of the meat of the Island and thus a weaker storm going west more .

Thanks that' s what i was trying to get at

[Stephanie]

Except for some notable exceptions discussed already many times on this board the NHC is pretty accurate 5 days out
and lethal 3 days out. IMO

I agree.

[GTStorm]

Except for some notable exceptions discussed already many times on this board the NHC is pretty accurate 5 days out
and lethal 3 days out. IMO

Cant tell what the the Model is but the one near Savanna has it at a C 4 BOMBaladomdom

Edit:http://orcasystems.ca/zoo.jpg

sweet...exactly where we want to be, right in the crosshairs at least 5 days out...pretty much guarantees that we will be spared !!! (but I do feel bad for others who will have to deal w/ Irene)

definitely agree on the 3 days....5 days, just depend son what the trends are.....technically, the current 5 day cone only goes to central Florida anyway. my comment was too flippant, perhaps.

Regardless, this storm certainly has my attention!!

[SeminoleWind]

i thought i read somewhere, maybe it was here i cant remember that the NHC 5 day cone has 60-70% accuracy.

[ronjon]

i thought i read somewhere, maybe it was here i cant remember that the NHC 5 day cone has 60-70% accuracy.

Average track error at 5 days is 250 miles.

[gatorcane]

Yeah the HWRF is a bit suspect. You can see in that run it builds a high pressure system over the midatlantic at 60 hours and it turns the system right into it. I believe it is too far east.

The model should continue a WNW motion through at least 84 to 96 hours and not NNW.

[Bocadude85]

When I look at the GFDL model notice a fine detail with it.

It takes the system over Hispaniola, weakens it, moves it west since it becomes a shallower system...until eastern Cuba, then it starts to feel the weakness. The Euro and GFS are missing this fine detail...hmmm

The interaction with Hispaniola can certainly influence the track so stay tuned.

But still it is tough to go against the Euro and GFS.

I expect an east shift in the track at 11...line offshore Florida but still left of the consensus track.

I think they will want to see another run of the 00z Euro before commiting

Nope...GFDL went further west..Its one of their babies...They wont budge till it does..

I am pretty sure it will shift east.... maybe just grazing the Florida coast

[bigdan35]

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_850_loop.gif

[ROCK]

So from this run, GFS very very slight shift west, GFDL big shift west, and HWRF big shift east.

So you shoot down the middle!

Remember what the GFDL did with Ike when it was about 4 days from South Florida. It dipped Ike into Cuba and nailed that track to all of our disbelief.

You can't rule it out. It is the second best performing model over the past 3 years. So I doubt the NHC can move the track east much

EURO picked up the shift wayyy before the GFDL....trust me I was here 24/7 for every model back then....

[SeminoleWind]

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_850_loop.gif

What model is this?