ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[WeatherEmperor]

The 00Z models shifted West because the center was moving more west earlier this evening. Now the center is a bit further north then expected. Could this cause the models to shift back east later today??

They shifted because of a short-term movement? I didn't think the Models went by short-term motions.

So basically Irene should stay on the NHC track? Do you think the NHC will change their track to the west given the 00Z models that just came out?

[dixiebreeze]

22/0545 UTC 18.1N 65.8W T3.5/3.5 IRENE -- Atlantic

[TwisterFanatic]

The 00Z models shifted West because the center was moving more west earlier this evening. Now the center is a bit further north then expected. Could this cause the models to shift back east later today??

They shifted because of a short-term movement? I didn't think the Models went by short-term motions.

So basically Irene should stay on the NHC track? Do you think the NHC will change their track to the west given the 00Z models that just came out?

It looks pretty much on track to me. I am thinking the NHC won't move the cone too much with the new found uncertainty.

I also noticed Irene is also coming more symmetrical.

[TwisterFanatic]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Becoming a very impressive looking system. Hope all in Puerto Rico are doing well! Looks like they're getting pounded.

[KWT]

Abit hard to ignore that radar motion heading to the NW in the alst few hours, though worth noting maybe just a hint of a bend back west along the northern coast of PR.

Stair-stepping WNW again, may well totally miss hispaniola or maybe a close shave.

NHC strength forecast will be way too low if this is the case...

[bexar]

is it me, or Irene's appearance seem to have deteriorated? probably a much weaker system in next advisory?

I do think Irene may never reach hurricane status at all since she may well interact with Hispaniola.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[george_r_1961]

Except for some "crimping" on the southwest side it looks good. Excellent outflow to the north and except for the SW side its nearly symmetrical. This is an intensifying cyclone IMO.

[Meso]

Well, it did just spend a good few hours over land, appearance will be more rugged. Though I think it's completely unreasonable to think it won't become a hurricane, especially when almost every intensity guidance model disagrees. Even if it goes over Hispaniola, it has a long time over water and the system's circulations remain decent, it only takes a few hours for convection to rebuild.

[KWT]

Yeah inner core core and the southern side ofn the system is much weaker but I'm not at all worried about the strength busting, it still has that classic shape and its got a large area its dragging in air from as well so it should be just fine.

[TwisterFanatic]

is it me, or Irene's appearance seem to have deteriorated? probably a much weaker system in next advisory?

I do think Irene may never reach hurricane status at all since she may well interact with Hispaniola.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The southern portion of the core has some waning convection, but we saw that today. They definitely won't bring down the intensity at 5. Still has a classic look of a big Hurricane in the making, and Irene might just clip the northern part of Hispaniola. It's near or already Hurricane strength now, and once it clears Hispaniola, Irene is going to have very warm waters and extremely favorable environment. The NHC is probably being conservative with the intensity forecast right now, but the models favor a pretty strong Hurricane approaching the Southeast in a few days.

[bahamaswx]

Waiting to see if the LLC tucks up under the heavier convection to the north.

[TwisterFanatic]

New Cold Tops blowing up on the southern side, as expected.

[cpdaman]

Let us pray there are no strengthening ridges over the next 24-72 hrs. I like s fl the way it is. This irene could bomb today and re arrange things where it hits. Any shot for a cat 4 ...get outta ur house imo

[South Texas Storms]

We now have Hurricane Irene as of 4am.

[SouthFLTropics]

And the first Hurricane of the season is born!

[bexar]

NHC intensity forecast is still conservative

[SkeetoBite]

[wzrgirl1]

Where do you see that?????

[gatorcane]

Nice long discussion from Stewart for the 5 am advisory

[South Texas Storms]

Nice long discussion from Stewart for the 5 am advisory

Yep, he sure did write a good one this morning.