ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[SouthDadeFish]

Wow, check out how outflow has improved over the past few hours in all quadrants. I think this will make a big difference in terms of sustaining convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[Dean4Storms]

Still have the LLC and MLC displaced, so it has a good ways to go! But persistent convection is key near the LLC that looks to be taking hold just south of the western tip of Jamaica.

[Dean4Storms]

2 pm discussion:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA AT 17N79W. THIS LOW IS
EMBEDDED IN A MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA AT 18N76W
TO 17N79W TO NICARAGUA AT 13N83W TO EL SALVADOR AT 14N90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 73W-78W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN
83W-86W...AND OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 79W-83W. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 64W-73W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO DRIFT N OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

I found it interesting where they said the low was located...

That is what I've been seeing in my previous posts, you can make out the rotation and feeder bands going into it now.

[KWT]

the convection seems to be developing a little closer to the LLC now, which is a good trend for development. Still a way to go but if that holds for the next 6-9hrs then we'll probably go code red with this.

[SouthDadeFish]

I completely agree. Seems like everything is finally starting to come together. Will be a slow process though, since it's so large.

[SouthDadeFish]

94L's evolution through last night and this morning:

[Dean4Storms]

Upper level outflow is looking impressive. I think we'll have a TC sometime tomorrow if this trend holds with the convection.

[SFLcane]

Think this thing has a brief window before running into very hostile conditions in the gulf. Not buying the 12z runs of the horrid nogaps or the ever aggressive canadian model.

[SouthDadeFish]

Think this thing has a brief window before running into very hostile conditions in the gulf. Not buying the 12z runs of the horrid nogaps or the ever aggressive canadian model.

I agree. Won't be too long lived. But I'll take all the sheared moisture I can get!

[Dean4Storms]

Thanks Michael, looks like AL/MS border area in that landfall. Still though close enough for rain and wind!

[SFLcane]

Think this thing has a brief window before running into very hostile conditions in the gulf. Not buying the 12z runs of the horrid nogaps or the ever aggressive canadian model.

I agree. Won't be too long lived. But I'll take all the sheared moisture I can get!

No doupt! Some of the mositure will eventually make it this way.

[KWT]

SDF, thats a pretty impressive evolution, you can see how good the inflow channel is right now, much better then it was yesterday.

Overall its improved, but of course nothing to say it won't look like it did last night come 12hrs time!

[SouthDadeFish]

SDF, thats a pretty impressive evolution, you can see how good the inflow channel is right now, much better then it was yesterday.

Overall its improved, but of course nothing to say it won't look like it did last night come 12hrs time!

I would argue that the improved outflow would keep the system ventilated and also the fact the convection has never been this close to the LLC

[SouthFloridawx]

The evolution of the Upper Level Low in the Western Gulf is going to have a lot to do with the formation or lack thereof, with 94L. As you can see, if a fairly dominant feature near the immediate environment of our invest. Anyone noticed what the model do with this feature, and what is the future for the trough off of the East coast? Is it lifting out or digging in?

Here is a water vapor loop of the Atlantic that I really like. Helps me to look at the features and what influencing them a bit better.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_14km_wv



Here's the 200mb Vorticity

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor1&zoom=&time=

[Hylian Auree]

Woah, I woke up this morning with the idea that it'd be even further disorganized, only to find an actually well-defined convective circulation with good outflow. If it can keep it up, it might develop by early next week; it cannot afford any additional disruptions with that destructive shear environment over the extreme northwestern Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

Vorticity looks to be strengthening and consolidating just to the SW of Jamaica

[Nimbus]

It looked to me like the Low off the east coast would border the eastern side of a high over Florida and the Low over the western gulf might roll southwest a little and border the western edge of the high. Eventually the Low in the Atlantic should move out though.

You can still get substantial shear as long as the high doesn't build right over the top of the circulation.

[KWT]

I would argue that the improved outflow would keep the system ventilated and also the fact the convection has never been this close to the LLC

True, of course it'd only take the mid level shear to strengthen once more and we'll be back to square one.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 94, 2011060518, , BEST, 0, 168N, 796W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models:

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 051807
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1807 UTC SUN JUN 5 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110605 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110605  1800   110606  0600   110606  1800   110607  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.8N  79.6W   17.2N  80.4W   17.6N  81.1W   17.7N  81.7W
BAMD    16.8N  79.6W   17.5N  80.3W   18.6N  80.7W   20.0N  80.3W
BAMM    16.8N  79.6W   17.3N  80.4W   18.0N  80.8W   18.5N  80.9W
LBAR    16.8N  79.6W   17.6N  79.9W   18.6N  79.9W   19.7N  79.0W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          31KTS          34KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          31KTS          34KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110607  1800   110608  1800   110609  1800   110610  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.7N  82.2W   17.7N  83.7W   17.8N  85.0W   18.4N  86.2W
BAMD    21.6N  79.3W   25.5N  77.5W   28.8N  78.5W   31.1N  81.0W
BAMM    19.1N  80.8W   20.3N  81.1W   22.4N  81.4W   24.4N  82.7W
LBAR    20.6N  77.6W   22.5N  73.8W   25.6N  70.1W   27.8N  65.9W
SHIP        33KTS          22KTS           0KTS           0KTS
DSHP        33KTS          22KTS           0KTS           0KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.8N LONCUR =  79.6W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  16.2N LONM12 =  79.1W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  16.1N LONM24 =  78.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  175NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM