ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[CYCLONE MIKE]

For those thinking this is a pretty certain recurve, if it develops, should think again. As mentioned earlier today the gfs was forecasting Don to hit the upper Texas coast, and that was almost in the short range time frame. Euro said deep south Texas and look where Don is going. The Gfs every season turns storms north way to early because of a "strong" trough off the east coast. Euro is showing some pretty stout ridging building in, in 6-7 days. So which would you pick. And of course the longer it takes to develop the further west it is going to go. It could very well take a Don type track. Of course this is long range just something to keep in the back of your mind going into next week.

[KWT]

Interesting, they aren't buying the northerly models one bit at the moment, the 72hrs forecast implies a threat to PR/Hispaniola.

There is almost certainly a well defined low, it was caught earlier on one of the sat.passes they do, along with the 2nd vortex that is further east.

I have my doubts this stays along 10N...think thats going to bust myself given its already been picking up some latitude.

[Hylian Auree]

I see two well-defined vortices, though the one ahead definitely seems predominate. The one behind it might just be a transient eddy.

[BigA]

Convection popping as day turings into night. Could be a critical night if the convective storms organize around the low.

[terrapintransit]

[KWT]

I see two well-defined vortices, though the one ahead definitely seems predominate. The one behind it might just be a transient eddy.

The first one is the stronger of the two and I think thats going to eventually beocme the dominant one, but the 2nd one has got a decent circulation as well, not as strong but could at least slow down the 1st systems development...quite probably if this has just LLC, it'd be a TD already.

[somethingfunny]

Looking really good, convection popping near where the center ought to form just as the sun set on the visible loop. I expect a Code Red tonight, maybe not at 8pm but almost certainly at 2am if this trend holds.

[shaggy]

I see two well-defined vortices, though the one ahead definitely seems predominate. The one behind it might just be a transient eddy.

The first one is the stronger of the two and I think thats going to eventually beocme the dominant one, but the 2nd one has got a decent circulation as well, not as strong but could at least slow down the 1st systems development...quite probably if this has just LLC, it'd be a TD already.

Its most certainly going to slow development but the two are seperating at a decent clip so once they get that distance between them we SHOULD/COULD see the invest really organize.

EDIT: Looking at the IR loop the storms around the second low at 8N 39W have really gone poof in the last 2 hours and we may see that low dissipate while new convection is firing along 10n 44w

[cheezyWXguy]

I see two well-defined vortices, though the one ahead definitely seems predominate. The one behind it might just be a transient eddy.

The first one is the stronger of the two and I think thats going to eventually beocme the dominant one, but the 2nd one has got a decent circulation as well, not as strong but could at least slow down the 1st systems development...quite probably if this has just LLC, it'd be a TD already.

Its most certainly going to slow development but the two are seperating at a decent clip so once they get that distance between them we SHOULD/COULD see the invest really organize.

EDIT: Looking at the IR loop the storms around the second low at 8N 39W have really gone poof in the last 2 hours and we may see that low dissipate while new convection is firing along 10n 44w

I dont see them separating at all. I think the western one is becoming the dominant center and the eastern center is beginning to rotate north around it, eventually becoming absorbed into the western center. The western one is now under a burst of convection, and the whole thing seems to be lighting up this evening. If this trend continues I wouldnt be surprised to wake up tomorrow to a system with one dominant center, on the verge of tropical depression.

EDIT: Nvm I misunderstood which 2 "lows" you were talking about. I see 2 low level centers immediately next to each other, near 42 and 44w. These are the 2 I think will fuse, with the one at 44w taking over. Looking at visible imagery, there doesnt appear to be any low level rotation in the dying convective complex near 39W, merely a mid level swirl as commonly seen in dying convective complexes.

[cycloneye]

Over me! 18z GFS

[KWT]

There was a low right next to the main low, thats probably the one thats now at 40-41W, there is a MLC feature that is close by, the passes a little earlier today showed a fairly well defined system, though not as well defined as the western one...

Should think it has a reasonable chance of development within the next 36hrs despite perhaps having competing areas...

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

Flow becomes totally dominated by LP#s coming off the east coast on the 18z by 120hrs, no way it manages to avoid recurving with that sort of set-up.

Heading NNW by 144hrs from the looks of things, and heading out to sea.

Note, GFS maybe a little on the slow side getting this one going though...

[TwisterFanatic]

It's almost stalled between 168-180 hours.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The National Hurricane Center should bump Invest 91L up to at least 50%, but 60% would be good also.

[Gustywind]

Latest from SSD: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
Not much change in intensity but continuing its trip in the central atlantic ocean...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
29/1745 UTC 9.6N 42.4W TOO WEAK 91L

[KWT]

If it gets into the position it does by 144hrs iot will 100% recurve, the flow is just too troughy on the GFS for it to stand any chance of reaching the east coast, eventually it'll get swept out to sea from that position...

Reminds me of a Hortense and Marilyn actually...

[KWT]

IMO this will be a pretty good match to the likely evolution if the models are right at the moment:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Marilyn

Might get a touch further west and not recurve quite so quickly though...

[Aric Dunn]

Convection increasing nicely over the center. Won't take too much more to.consolidate a single llc.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If it gets into the position it does by 144hrs iot will 100% recurve, the flow is just too troughy on the GFS for it to stand any chance of reaching the east coast, eventually it'll get swept out to sea from that position...

Reminds me of a Hortense and Marilyn actually...

Hortense 1996 didn't recurve (as in harmlessly went out to sea), just ask the people of Nova Scotia where it was the first hurricane to make landfall in the province since Blance 1975, and the worse in terms of damage since Beth 1971. If it hadn't been for Juan 2003, likely people in this part of the world would still be talking about it.