ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm a bit confused about this and if I'm wrong, please let me know. With the Death Ridge that WXMAN and other say will still be in place for quite awhile, how can the models be showing this storm in the gulf anywhere east of the texas Mexican border? Perhaps WXMAN can shine some light on this as well.
Thanks in advance!

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, with the death ridge protecting the gulf(or so I've been told), this is looking more and more like a Carib/Mexico threat.

[Kory]

Yea, with the death ridge protecting the gulf(or so I've been told), this is looking more and more like a Carib/Mexico threat.

Well its forecasted to shift more to the north and west.

[dwsqos2]

I wouldn't be sold on code red soon as no model does much with this over the next 48 hours. I see lots of stable air to its north and a fairly poorly organized system overall.

[Ivanhater]

I'm a bit confused about this and if I'm wrong, please let me know. With the Death Ridge that WXMAN and other say will still be in place for quite awhile, how can the models be showing this storm in the gulf anywhere east of the texas Mexican border? Perhaps WXMAN can shine some light on this as well.
Thanks in advance!

We are talking 10 days out. Even though the ridge has been firmly in place, it has been "pulsing". By the time this could possibly get in the Gulf it will be late August and the ridge is going to have to put up a bigger fight if it wants to dominate.

[wxman57]

Doesn't look very impressive on satellite. Could develop in 3-4 days, though. I'm not sure it will be able to get going east of the Caribbean. Environment still looks somewhat hostile in its path, as evident by the low instability across the tropical Atlantic:



Shear in its path is moderate, 15 kts or so. Tending slightly above normal:

[5KOVERLIBOR]

Thank you!!! wxman for addressing the lack of instability that continues to plague the basin.

[wxman57]

My prediction is it will eventually make landfall somewhere between Mexico and Bermuda.

[ConvergenceZone]

My prediction is it will eventually make landfall somewhere between Mexico and Bermuda.

LOL Nice!

[otowntiger]

Thank you!!! wxman for addressing the lack of instability that continues to plague the basin

Or you could say it another way: "the lack of instability that's protecting us all!" Actually though with 4 invests all lined up in a row one could argue that conditions in the Atlantic aren't too stable.

[Ivanhater]

All that probably means is development further west which puts the U.S coast at a greater risk. Remember 2005, most waves developed west of 55 degrees.

[Blown Away]

My prediction is it will eventually make landfall somewhere between Mexico and Bermuda.

Yeah!
Is a situation where if 93L deepens sooner it will be affected by upper levels and pulled on a more WNW type path and if it remains shallower it will ride west into Caribbean, I think that is what the GFS/EURO are showing now.

[SouthDadeFish]

All that probably means is development further west which put the U.S coast at a greater risk. Remember 2005, most waves developed west of 55 degrees.

Indeed. Let's hope this is not a trend....

[underthwx]

I wouldn't be sold on code red soon as no model does much with this over the next 48 hours. I see lots of stable air to its north and a fairly poorly organized system overall.

Little early yet on any scenario. Think if it takes a southern track this might be a feature in Mexico region. My opinion only not any type of forecast.

[cycloneye]

All that probably means is development further west which put the U.S coast at a greater risk. Remember 2005, most waves developed west of 55 degrees.

Indeed. Let's hope this is not a trend....

Like 2005 when the Eastern Atlantic was almost void of TC'S forming. All the action was west from that part of the basin.Will 2011 follow the same pattern?

[SouthDadeFish]

Well it's not trying to develop in a hurry.... Pretty weak right now:

[cycloneye]

Something that is interesting to note is that there has been a separation between 92L and 93L today. In past days,almost looked like a merge would happen.

[SouthDadeFish]

Something that is interesting to note is that there has been a separation between 92L and 93L today. In past days,almost looked like a merge would happen.

Yup, props to the global models like the GFS more showing this separation.

[Vortex]

My prediction is it will eventually make landfall somewhere between Mexico and Bermuda.

Thanks for the heads up 57

[ROCK]

[quote="wxman57"]My prediction is it will eventually make landfall somewhere between Mexico and Bermuda.[/quote


Good call...!