WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

[CrazyC83]

And we thought Irene was bad, I guess it could be worse?

[Typhoon Hunter]

I love waking up in the morning, opening up the browser and satellite and almost falling off my chair! Wow!

Obviously not wishing any ill effects on people in Luzon!

ECM run is really weird and a disaster for Taiwan. However their run to run consistency has been about as solid as a bowl of watery Chinese congee so I'm not putting to much into it just yet - let's wait and see what 00z run brings. I'll be looking to ship out on Sunday with target being Ishigaki if current forecasts verify!

[phwxenthusiast]

i believe this is bound to be upgraded to a Cat 5 STY now...

TPPN11 PGTW 260020

A. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL)

B. 25/2332Z

C. 16.7N

D. 123.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. EYE DIAMETER 12NM.
EMBEDDED DISTANCE 1 DEGREE PLUS 1 T-NUMBER FOR BF YIELDS A 7.0
DT. MET YIELDS A 6.5 AND PT YEILDS A 6.0+. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BELMONDO

[KWT]

Yeah its an amazing looking system now, looks to me like it probably does justify 140kts, very impressive Typhoon at the moment!

[euro6208]

I love waking up in the morning, opening up the browser and satellite and almost falling off my chair! Wow!

haha yeah i woke up at 8 30 am, about 1 hour and 30 minute after jtwc released their latest warning and saw the satellite picture of nanmadol and was shocked. strong typhoons are common here but still whenever one develops, i'm still shocked!

[euro6208]

i'm starting to think nanmadol may make landfall on luzon... a category 4 or maybe 5???

nanmadol is very small for a typhoon, usually our storms are large. i would place nanmadol's intensity at 145 knots 1 minute winds based on it's extreme small size.

dvorak estimates are useless for small storms, always low for such small systems...

[supercane]

00Z JMA advisory:
WTPQ20 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 16.7N 123.9E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 18.4N 123.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 280000UTC 20.1N 122.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 290000UTC 21.6N 122.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

[Typhoon Hunter]

95kts from JMA and biting my lip not to comment on that...

[KWT]

Wow 95kts...really?

Well if they say so...but even with 10 min mean thats way too low IMO...

[rdhdstpchld]

95kts from JMA and biting my lip not to comment on that...

LOL -

[oaba09]

yeah....95 kts is too low based on how the storm looks right now...This thing is way more powerful than that...

[ManilaTC]

WHOA. WPac storms are the boss

[alan1961]

Just about as good as you get with an eye..stunning!..should clip
the north east phillippines and could brush taiwan before back
out to sea...western pacific at it again with some super storms
showing Irene how its done!

[Typhoon10]

Any chance of it continuing WNW and entering the SCS?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Any chance of it continuing WNW and entering the SCS?

Highly unlikely.

Seems like it's gaining a little more latitude now and I personally think it will not make landfall on Luzon given latest agency forecasts. East coast of Taiwan is going to get some phenomenal seas and likely lots of rain. If this maintains strength it'll be a beast through the southern Ryukus!

Lol I feel a basin war coming on, 1-0 to Wpac at moment ehehehe

[alan1961]

Any chance of it continuing WNW and entering the SCS?

It looks very unlikely on that track Typhoon 10

[oaba09]

If it's current direction doesn't change, I see it clipping the northeast tip of luzon.

[Chacor]

You have to remember that the JMA's Dvorak scale is highly scaled down and they rarely ignore it.

T7.0 on the JMA's scale is traditionally 107 kt so we'll see if they go 110 kt soon.

For comparison:
T5.0 U.S. 90 kt JMA 77 kt
T5.5 U.S. 102 kt JMA 85 kt
T6.0 U.S. 115 kt JMA 93 kt
T6.5 U.S. 127 kt JMA 100 kt
T7.0 U.S. 140 kt JMA 107 kt

[Chacor]

NRL / ATCF best track goes with 130 kt at 00z, so expecting the JTWC to follow with 130 knots at the next warning.



That is an incredible visible shot.

Here's why 130 kt is appropriate, and not the 140 kt cat 5 super typhoon someone keeps calling for:
Dvorak ranges are T6.0 (RJTD/JMA), T6.5 (KNES/SSD), to T7.0 (PGTW/JTWC and CIMSS ADT).

6.0 is 115 kt on the U.S. scale, 6.5 is 127, and 7.0 is 140. 130 kt is a fairly accurate mean.

[supercane]

JTWC 03Z up to 130kt:

WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 16.7N 123.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 123.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.3N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.2N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.4N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.6N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.1N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.1N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 23.9N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 123.8E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
260000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND
270300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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