ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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Blown Away
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Re: Re:

#3001 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:28 pm

otowntiger wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Hylian Auree wrote:This multi-vortice beast has led us into believing it was in the process of developing many times before. Wouldn't surprise me if it falls apart again soon ):


Got to remember many of us have Storm2k OCD, and even slight improvements in development get many of us very excited, but we realize it's still just a unorganized mess.
This. It's about as unorganized of any system I can remember getting as much attention. But, hey that's just my untrained ,unauthorized, unofficial, unintelligent take on it. :P


IMO, the Storm2k discussions are much more interesting when a system is at this stage, because there is so much uncertainty. Once we have a defined system all the chatter is about track, GFS is better than EURO, blah, blah, blah!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3002 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:29 pm

ROCK wrote:http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP120.gif

FL straits anyone?


Yea looks like it hits extreme S. Fla
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3003 Postby otowntiger » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:29 pm

caneseddy wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Look at that deep ridge to the NE of it ...Gulf bound looks more and more likely as the hours progress

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif


That is a deep ridge right there...also don't like that track from the Euro as this is the strongest it has had this storm and it brings it right over the Keys
Yeah that ridge does look pretty stout but notice there is no system to speak of in the tropical basin with that setupl.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3004 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:29 pm

so as of right now the CMC, NOGAPS and EURO are showing a similar track...GFS, GFDL and HWRF are becoming the outliers....I even think the NAM is doing good.....GO NAM!! :)
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#3005 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:29 pm

Yep its the MLC on the eastern side, I've seen that sort of thing trick people over and over and over and over again...myself included!

The western area certainly looks the more interesting area, hopefully recon at least finds some sort of circulation...
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#3006 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:30 pm

Low-level structure is quickly improving, however it seems that wind shear is keep most of convection somewhat displaced. Let's see if that changes here. I'm guessing we will have TS Emily at 5pm. Just my opinion.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3007 Postby artist » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:30 pm

madinina wrote:Hi,
First, sorry for my bad english...
So, this system will not cross Martinique?I hope so, because here, nobody is ready...
We are working normally...
Thanks you for yours analyses since yesterday.

your english is just fine and welcome to storm2k! I am bringing your post back up as the board is moving fast and must have been missed.

Can someone please answer this for madinina? The original post is on page 82.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3008 Postby WxEnthus » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:31 pm

So when looking at the IR-RGB images the yellow is low level, the bluish tint is mid? Do I have that right?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3009 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:31 pm

ROCK wrote:so as of right now the CMC, NOGAPS and EURO are showing a similar track...GFS, GFDL and HWRF are becoming the outliers....I even think the NAM is doing good.....GO NAM!! :)



The GFS really isnt that far off from the Euro
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Re:

#3010 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:32 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Low-level structure is quickly improving, however it seems that wind shear is keep most of convection somewhat displaced. Let's see if that changes here. I'm guessing we will have TS Emily at 5pm. Just my opinion.


its mostly because of its forward motion.. its moving at a good clip over 15mph thats causing most of the shear problems. should however slow down some. soon
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Re:

#3011 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:32 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:hehe.. speaking of they have turned around.. lol


They finally heard your voice of reasoning Aric LOL....

What a invest this has turned out to be folks.... Also, yes I agree Aric and others who point out that it APPEARS that the LLC is trying to get itself together just east of the island of Dominica. BUT, until Recon confirms we have a closed center, I'll just keep taking a step back and wait and watch.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3012 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:32 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
ROCK wrote:so as of right now the CMC, NOGAPS and EURO are showing a similar track...GFS, GFDL and HWRF are becoming the outliers....I even think the NAM is doing good.....GO NAM!! :)



The GFS really isnt that far off from the Euro


it aint showing it GOM bound..... :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3013 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:33 pm

WxEnthus wrote:So when looking at the IR-RGB images the yellow is low level, the bluish tint is mid? Do I have that right?


yep bluish tint is upper level.. bright while is mid and lower u go the more yellow it becomes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3014 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:33 pm

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif

Tampa....elongated....probably sheared....almost exactly like the NOGAPS.....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3015 Postby caneseddy » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:34 pm

ROCK wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
ROCK wrote:so as of right now the CMC, NOGAPS and EURO are showing a similar track...GFS, GFDL and HWRF are becoming the outliers....I even think the NAM is doing good.....GO NAM!! :)



The GFS really isnt that far off from the Euro


it aint showing it GOM bound..... :lol:


Gotta give it to the NOGAPS..as much grief as it suffers (well deserved) it was the first model to detect the westward trend
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#3016 Postby Hylian Auree » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:34 pm

Madinina, I'm sorry your post was ignored--I personally didn't see it. I think in Martinique you should definitely be keeping an eye on this system, as it will likely bring squally conditions to the area regardless of its path. I'm no pro, but the NHC did mention this as well, and by the looks of it the estimated center position will track very near Martinique over the next 12 hours or so. You should probably look at what your local met department states; they are trained for this and much more reliable than most of us here
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#3017 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:36 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3018 Postby capepoint » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:37 pm

artist wrote:
madinina wrote:Hi,
First, sorry for my bad english...
So, this system will not cross Martinique?I hope so, because here, nobody is ready...
We are working normally...
Thanks you for yours analyses since yesterday.

your english is just fine and welcome to storm2k! I am bringing your post back up as the board is moving fast and must have been missed.

Can someone please answer this for madinina? The original post is on page 82.


Please consult your official forcast outlets for official information. However, and I am NOT a professional forcaster, I would think that you will see stormy weather, but nothing too bad. Tropical storm force at the most probably, but like I said, go with the OFFICIAL forcast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3019 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:38 pm

Convection closest to the possible LLC is weakening some
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#3020 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:38 pm

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