ATL: EMILY - Remnants

#3041 Postby **OuterBanker** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:48 pm

Wave to the east, mlc and llc still competing against each other. At least the llc seems to be improving. But we all know nothing much is going to happen until they all line up.

Bocadude85 · #3042 Postby **Bocadude85** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:48 pm

You can now clearly see the LLC

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

#3043 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:50 pm

Pressure is down to 1008.2mb and dropping as recon approaches the proposed LLC.

AHS2011 · #3044 Postby **AHS2011** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:50 pm

Do you think we will have Emily soon? If so, how soon?

SouthFLTropics · #3045 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:50 pm

Looks to me like the outflow is starting to improve in the south and southeast quadrant. That would probably be due to it getting away from the ITCZ I would guess.

SFT

#3046 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:01/1745 UTC 14.9N 57.1W T2.5/2.5 91L -- Atlantic

Obvious they are discounting the MLC that is crossing 60W near 15.5N.

pricetag56 · #3047 Postby **pricetag56** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:52 pm

i think the reason it hasnt developed yet is the same reason don didnt out there its moving to fast as you can see its outrunning the convection and the air is dry to the north

Aric Dunn · #3048 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:52 pm

recon finding high sfmr .. flying trough the deep convection.. could be rain contaminated

184000 1432N 05919W 9757 00294 0096 +195 +158 138030 031 053 039 00
184030 1433N 05921W 9760 00291 0095 +191 +157 126032 033 054 037 00
184100 1434N 05922W 9767 00286 0094 +192 +157 122031 033 054 040 00
184130 1435N 05924W 9759 00290 0093 +192 +157 124032 033 055 044 00
184200 1436N 05925W 9763 00286 0092 +195 +157 118031 033 057 037 00

Hylian Auree · #3049 Postby **Hylian Auree** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:53 pm

Yeah, I'm at a totall loss what this system is doing by now. Time to sit back and wait instead of brainstorming :lol:

Gustywind · #3050 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:54 pm

msbee wrote:
artist wrote:
madinina wrote:Hi,
First, sorry for my bad english...
So, this system will not cross Martinique?I hope so, because here, nobody is ready...
We are working normally...
Thanks you for yours analyses since yesterday.

your english is just fine and welcome to storm2k! I am bringing your post back up as the board is moving fast and must have been missed.

Can someone please answer this for madinina? The original post is on page 82.

I am not sure myself where it is going to cross..maybe Gustywind from Guadeloupe can give an opinion when he checks in here.
I do think Martinique will get some bad weather from the system..maybe some tropical storm force winds... but hopefully not much more.
Please keep checking with Meteo.Fr , madinina... They are your best source for weather conditions.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

From what I am hearing, no one in any of the islands is really prepared. people are watching but because of the uncertainty of the strengthening, people have not really prepared.
I hope nothing blows up in our faces.

Btw, sun is shining here but it sure is windy. 18 MPH winds from the ENE reported at the airport.

Barbara

Nice post Barbara, excellent analysis... you have well resumed the situation. This feature seems so versatile the best thing to do is to wait and see as any island could deal suddently with a strong TS. We have so many experiences in the past with these features boombing near the islands, so let's hope that nothiong bad occurs in the Lesser Antilles as this year in Guadeloupe we received amount of water in excess but really in excess. Last week HUC told me that Basse-Terre received more than 300 millimeters :eek:

. Be aware islanders, i advice you to monitor 91L especially as the afternoon begins to ending.
Gustywind

#3051 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:54 pm

madinina · #3052 Postby **madinina** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:55 pm

Thanks you everybody for yours answers.
Yes, I look also NHC and meteo.fr; but I don't understand why Guadeloupe is " orange alert" since yesterday and Martinique is only "yellow alert".
So, people think "like everytimes, the system is crossing Guadeloupe and not Martinique"

And also, we had "yellow alert" a lot of time this month, for nothing...
It's ok for this time because it's a little system...
Thanks again,

#3053 Postby **OuterBanker** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:56 pm

T 2.5? Is that not a TS?

#3054 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:56 pm

18z

955

WHXX01 KWBC 011850

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1850 UTC MON AUG 1 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110801 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110801 1800 110802 0600 110802 1800 110803 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.3N 60.5W 15.7N 63.0W 16.2N 65.4W 16.8N 67.7W

BAMD 15.3N 60.5W 15.5N 62.9W 15.7N 65.0W 16.1N 66.8W

BAMM 15.3N 60.5W 15.4N 63.0W 15.8N 65.3W 16.2N 67.3W

LBAR 15.3N 60.5W 16.0N 63.2W 17.0N 65.8W 18.0N 68.2W

SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS

DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110803 1800 110804 1800 110805 1800 110806 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.6N 70.1W 19.5N 74.3W 21.1N 77.6W 22.8N 80.4W

BAMD 16.7N 68.6W 19.3N 72.0W 21.4N 75.0W 22.4N 78.4W

BAMM 16.8N 69.2W 19.1N 72.7W 21.3N 75.7W 23.0N 78.7W

LBAR 19.3N 70.1W 23.1N 73.0W 26.6N 74.0W 28.1N 74.9W

SHIP 54KTS 61KTS 67KTS 72KTS

DSHP 41KTS 45KTS 51KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 15.3N LONCUR = 60.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 18KT

LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 56.7W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 18KT

LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 54.0W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

NNNN

KWT · #3055 Postby **KWT** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:57 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:You can now clearly see the LLC

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Yep its quite obvious, the low level flow is still abit too fast, gotta wonder if its ever going to really slow down enough for significant development before it crashes into Hispaniola...

MLC still blowing up convection on the side thats closest to the LLC, thats at least a decent sign...

cheezyWXguy · #3056 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:57 pm

Blown Away wrote:
cycloneye wrote:01/1745 UTC 14.9N 57.1W T2.5/2.5 91L -- Atlantic

Obvious they are discounting the MLC that is crossing 60W near 15.5N.

You mean llc. the mlc is what the nhc is tracking further east.

canes04 · #3057 Postby **canes04** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:57 pm

All I can say is Aric your the man. That mid level fooled me for 3 days, I was thinking it would work itself down.
Way to stick to your guns.

#3058 Postby **Extratropical94** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:57 pm

Best Track of 18Z is at 15.3N 60.5W, 30 knots, 1008 mbars
Pretty much west of the SSD microwave estimates.
BT seems to focus on the LLC.

#3059 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:58 pm

18z Best Track

Aric,there is your low.

AL, 91, 2011080118, , BEST, 0, 153N, 605W, 30, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

#3060 Postby **TheEuropean** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:58 pm

OuterBanker wrote:T 2.5? Is that not a TS?

Only with closed circulation.

ATL: EMILY - Remnants

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re:

Who is online