ATL: IRENE - Models

[Bocadude85]

Well looks like my call for a eastward shift in the 0z GFS was wrong... earlier I felt a little more certian that I would make my 8pm flight out of MIA on Thursday but now I am not sure.

[viberama]

Well looks like my call for a eastward shift in the 0z GFS was wrong... earlier I felt a little more certian that I would make my 8pm flight out of MIA on Thursday but now I am not sure.

Can you leave Wed?

[SouthFLTropics]

How far north will Irene get before it finally does recurve around the high? Or is it straight north to dissipation? Stalling out?

It could be straight north and stalling out over the Carolinas with some very heavy rain. A very big flood threat to that region if that happens. If we were in mid to late September we could start looking west for a cold front to kick it out to sea but in mid to late August not as likely.

SFT

[TheDreamTraveler]

here is the crazy scary part barley moves much out to 138 hours

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal138.gif

People in Georgia and South Carolina would be taking the brunt of the storm and not Florida. I was surprised the model runs stopped getting posted just because we saw that it hit Florida and that was it. This storm isn't just about Florida. So people in the Southeast need to pay very close attention to this.

I would agree with you on this but I would also point out that you generally will see much more Texas and Florida members on here versus Georgia and South Carolina members. I think your point about them being under the gun as well is very valid but the bulk of people on right now are from Florida so that is obviously the concern that is going to be voiced and shown. If anyone is from Georgia or SC please make yourself known and jump in the conversation. This is definitely about you as well. This is a Southeast US regional threat.

SFT

I notice a lot of people from Florida and Texas do post here, but you have to take into account all of the people who lurk here who are from the other states. I'm just trying to help keep the others informed so they're not left out in the dark of what's possible that might happen to them.

[HugoCameandLeft]

here is the crazy scary part barley moves much out to 138 hours

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal138.gif

People in Georgia and South Carolina would be taking the brunt of the storm and not Florida. I was surprised the model runs stopped getting posted just because we saw that it hit Florida and that was it. This storm isn't just about Florida. So people in the Southeast need to pay very close attention to this.

I would agree with you on this but I would also point out that you generally will see much more Texas and Florida members on here versus Georgia and South Carolina members. I think your point about them being under the gun as well is very valid but the bulk of people on right now are from Florida so that is obviously the concern that is going to be voiced and shown. If anyone is from Georgia or SC please make yourself known and jump in the conversation. This is definitely about you as well. This is a Southeast US regional threat.

SFT

Charleston. Making myself known.

Question for those that care to answer - this latest run is consistent with earlier, more or less, with respect to intensity (977/980mb, or thereabouts). I realize many of these models are awful at intensity projections, but all the references to a "major" storm are made on the basis of it being in warm water, or am I missing something here?

[AtlanticWind]

August 25th is when Katrina made landfal lin Florida. Same date Irene Could hit.

[SouthFLTropics]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal138.gif

People in Georgia and South Carolina would be taking the brunt of the storm and not Florida. I was surprised the model runs stopped getting posted just because we saw that it hit Florida and that was it. This storm isn't just about Florida. So people in the Southeast need to pay very close attention to this.[/quote]

I would agree with you on this but I would also point out that you generally will see much more Texas and Florida members on here versus Georgia and South Carolina members. I think your point about them being under the gun as well is very valid but the bulk of people on right now are from Florida so that is obviously the concern that is going to be voiced and shown. If anyone is from Georgia or SC please make yourself known and jump in the conversation. This is definitely about you as well. This is a Southeast US regional threat.

SFT[/quote]

I notice a lot of people from Florida and Texas do post here, but you have to take into account all of the people who lurk here who are from the other states. I'm just trying to help keep the others informed so they're not left out in the dark of what's possible that might happen to them. [/quote]

I agree with you 110%. With that being said...if you're lurking here please register and join the conversation. There is always room for more members at Storm2k!

SFT

[SEASON_CANCELED]

There is still time for it too shift west. Im going to hold back before i make any preparations. I know the cones and models shift. (I am in Tampa).

[Bocadude85]

Well looks like my call for a eastward shift in the 0z GFS was wrong... earlier I felt a little more certian that I would make my 8pm flight out of MIA on Thursday but now I am not sure.

Can you leave Wed?

Nope my work schedule would not allow it

[DESTRUCTION5]

I stopped posting them cause Im too damn lazy to save em 1st..Sorry...

[bamajammer4eva]

Massive sized storm with Tropical storm force winds (Yellow) as far west as the Gulf coast and East Alabama. Hurricane Force winds (Red) in a large area also!

[HugoCameandLeft]

Massive sized storm with Tropical storm force winds (Yellow) as far west as the Gulf coast and East Alabama. Hurricane Force winds (Red) in a large area also!

Wow. Where did you pull this? Or is this something internal you are sharing?

[blp]

FWIW, the 00z NAM is thru the Florida Straits.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/images/nam_sl8_084l.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

Charleston. Making myself known.

Question for those that care to answer - this latest run is consistent with earlier, more or less, with respect to intensity (977/980mb, or thereabouts). I realize many of these models are awful at intensity projections, but all the references to a "major" storm are made on the basis of it being in warm water, or am I missing something here?

It's more than just the warm water. It has to do with the upper air environment, shear (or lack thereof), etc. Irene is expected, by most models, to have a very conducive environment for strengthening. That, in combination with the very high SST's is what they are picking up on. BTW, thanks for making yourself know. Great to have you aboard.

SFT

[bamajammer4eva]

Massive sized storm with Tropical storm force winds (Yellow) as far west as the Gulf coast and East Alabama. Hurricane Force winds (Red) in a large area also!

Wow. Where did you pull this? Or is this something internal you are sharing?

College of Dupage-select GFS model

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/index.php

[Scorpion]

HWRF is significantly further west so far.

[Old-TimeCane]

If anyone is from Georgia or SC please make yourself known and jump in the conversation. This is definitely about you as well. This is a Southeast US regional threat.

Charleston. Making myself known.

Conway, SC here, too. Been watching the models on here for quite a few days now. Even with all of the flips and flops, this definitely has my attention.

[HugoCameandLeft]

Massive sized storm with Tropical storm force winds (Yellow) as far west as the Gulf coast and East Alabama. Hurricane Force winds (Red) in a large area also!

Wow. Where did you pull this? Or is this something internal you are sharing?

College of Dupage-select GFS model

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/index.php

Thanks. I noticed the link on the bottom right after I posted. Appreciate the help and patience! It's 1 am and has been a long day.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well misery loves company and I'm starting to think that the entire Southeastern US coast is going to be in good company later this week. We're all in it together from FLA all the way up to at least NC it looks like. I'm thinking that we may see evacs that were similar to when Floyd came this way in 99...This is turning into a logistics nightmare for local and state emergency planners. But, with that being said it is what they have made plans for and are ready to implement if needed. If things have to move forward then Florida might as well lead the way...We've got plenty of experience doing it.

SFT

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF is significantly further west so far.

Define "significantly"