ATL: IRENE - Models

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Evil Jeremy
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#3101 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:10 am

00z is when the trends seem to change.
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Re: Re:

#3102 Postby maxintensity » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:10 am

ROCK wrote:
bamajammer4eva wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Just remember if it shifts west, then the intensity will also come down quite a bit, as it might even move over part of Cuba, and it won't have as much time over water before impacting south Florida.... If it goes east, then a Major's in the making, whereas if it goes west, then perhaps we MIGHT still get a hurricane out of it, but if it goes too far south and west, Cuba will shred what's left of it....


Gulf waters are the warmest so there would be plenty of time for it to reach Major


sure if it made into the GOM.... :D
If it makes it into the gulf it might be katrina/rita strength. That would be the perfect solution for enthusiasts like myself. Next best is what the 0z GFS had.
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Re: Re:

#3103 Postby Kohlecane » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:12 am

Old-TimeCane wrote:
If anyone is from Georgia or SC please make yourself known and jump in the conversation. This is definitely about you as well. This is a Southeast US regional threat.

Charleston. Making myself known.




Conway, SC here, too. Been watching the models on here for quite a few days now. Even with all of the flips and flops, this definitely has my attention.

Along with Irmo. but theses models are getting Ridicules
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3104 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:13 am

HWRF 929mb over the Bahamas.....seems a bit extreme....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2090.gif

still east to me...someone say west?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3105 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:14 am

ROCK wrote:HWRF 929mb over the Bahamas.....seems a bit extreme....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2090.gif

still east to me...someone say west?


What part of the Bahama's???
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3106 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:15 am

ROCK wrote:HWRF 929mb over the Bahamas.....seems a bit extreme....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2090.gif

still east to me...someone say west?


Much further west than the last run..
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#3107 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:15 am

929 mb? thats wayyyyy too strong. thats like a cat 4/5...
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3108 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:15 am

well offshore...927....thats a major problem for someone....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2096.gif
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3109 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:15 am

ROCK wrote:HWRF 929mb over the Bahamas.....seems a bit extreme....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2090.gif

still east to me...someone say west?


I believe thats the 18z run

Ps I was wrong, thats 0z
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3110 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:17 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
ROCK wrote:HWRF 929mb over the Bahamas.....seems a bit extreme....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2090.gif

still east to me...someone say west?


I believe thats the 18z run

Ps I was wrong, thats 0z



its the 0z and it did shift slightly west....HWRF has been blowing up TCs for years now....it does handle intensity well....I also think it has a right biased....JMO though....
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Re: Re:

#3111 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:17 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:How far north will Irene get before it finally does recurve around the high? Or is it straight north to dissipation? Stalling out?


It could be straight north and stalling out over the Carolinas with some very heavy rain. A very big flood threat to that region if that happens. If we were in mid to late September we could start looking west for a cold front to kick it out to sea but in mid to late August not as likely.

SFT


I was thinking it would just slowly crawl northward with flood threats all the way up the east coast and Appalachians.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3112 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:18 am

damn...924mb...that is just stupid deep....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2102.gif


922...slowly crawling

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2108.gif
Last edited by ROCK on Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3113 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:19 am

Summary of last 4 operational (non-interpolated GFS runs):
Image
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#3114 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:20 am

Lol.. 922. Definitely something off with it.
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#3115 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:20 am

hmm interesting, does anyone know what exactly is causing the westward shift on the latest runs? Ridge stronger maybe?
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Re: Re:

#3116 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:20 am

bamajammer4eva wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Just remember if it shifts west, then the intensity will also come down quite a bit, as it might even move over part of Cuba, and it won't have as much time over water before impacting south Florida.... If it goes east, then a Major's in the making, whereas if it goes west, then perhaps we MIGHT still get a hurricane out of it, but if it goes too far south and west, Cuba will shred what's left of it....


Gulf waters are the warmest so there would be plenty of time for it to reach Major



It takes much more than just warm water to create a major, plus, if you look at the western part of the cone, it would take it right over Cuba, and THEN if anything is left, it perhaps might make hurricane strength. On the other hand if it completely kills it, it's like starting all over again.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3117 Postby Kohlecane » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:20 am

ROCK wrote:damn...924mb...that is just stupid deep....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2102.gif


922...slowly crawling

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2108.gif


That's just scary to even consider WOW
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3118 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:22 am

925...oh it weaken by 2mbs....ha

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2114.gif
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3119 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:23 am

ROCK wrote:HWRF 929mb over the Bahamas.....seems a bit extreme....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2090.gif

still east to me...someone say west?



I'm definately on the east bandwagon tonight. I don't think this is going to be a weak storm that's going to go west. For all we know it could be a hurricane right now and getting stronger. I think the GFS has the best handle on where Irene is going.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3120 Postby Kohlecane » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:23 am

ROCK wrote:925...oh it weaken by 2mbs....ha

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2114.gif



Ahhh thats soo great
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Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!

This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
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