ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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Aric Dunn
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#3141 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:43 pm

because there is an island there.. they also cant get too close. air space restrictions. air ports things like that..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3142 Postby canes04 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:44 pm

I'm curious on the intial track. I'm sure South Florida will be in the 5 day cone.
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#3143 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:44 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3144 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:45 pm

underthwx wrote:for what its worth.....t/w my dad.....35 yr. Air Force veteran pilot......hes thinking central GOM threat possible.....intensity on the lower end of the scale... :flag:

seems reasonable based on what we are seeing
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3145 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:45 pm

canes04 wrote:I'm curious on the intial track. I'm sure South Florida will be in the 5 day cone.

I am too...I just want it to be named, see the track, and then let it die unexpectedly like Gaston'10.
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#3146 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:45 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:because there is an island there.. they also cant get too close. air space restrictions. air ports things like that..


They could just circle the island. That might work. :wink:
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#3147 Postby jonj2040 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:46 pm

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#3148 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:46 pm

Low level clouds are thickening near and around the center.. burst of convection likely to follow soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3149 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:46 pm

Convection is really starting to build!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
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#3150 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:47 pm

SouthFloridawx, really does depend on the state of it when it reaches Hispaniola and the exacts of the upper pattern at the time as well.

Hispaniola weakens, sometimes severely...rarely does it kill outright though without shear helping out.
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#3151 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:48 pm

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#3152 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:49 pm

Observation 22...some very high fl-winds here


000
URNT15 KNHC 011946
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 22 20110801
193600 1526N 06023W 9761 00280 0079 +211 +210 099026 026 040 015 00
193630 1527N 06022W 9764 00277 0079 +216 +205 100023 024 033 012 00
193700 1528N 06021W 9759 00283 0080 +219 +199 104024 025 030 011 00
193730 1529N 06019W 9761 00280 0079 +231 +195 107025 027 027 007 00
193800 1529N 06018W 9762 00280 0082 +210 +192 106027 028 033 009 00
193830 1530N 06017W 9758 00285 0083 +212 +190 109027 029 035 009 00
193900 1531N 06016W 9756 00287 0082 +215 +188 114034 035 035 008 00
193930 1532N 06015W 9759 00283 0082 +224 +186 112038 041 038 006 00
194000 1532N 06014W 9764 00280 0083 +219 +185 111038 040 040 009 00
194030 1533N 06012W 9766 00282 0087 +206 +184 107035 038 045 018 00
194100 1534N 06011W 9750 00293 0088 +202 +182 100035 039 045 032 00
194130 1535N 06010W 9764 00281 0088 +200 +181 099042 044 044 035 00
194200 1535N 06009W 9762 00282 0087 +195 +179 100039 040 046 038 00
194230 1536N 06008W 9761 00285 0088 +196 +178 106038 040 052 032 00
194300 1537N 06007W 9752 00295 0089 +201 +176 109037 038 046 028 00
194330 1537N 06006W 9758 00290 0089 +208 +176 113039 041 039 017 00
194400 1538N 06004W 9764 00284 0089 +204 +175 113037 040 050 021 00
194430 1539N 06003W 9759 00289 0091 +207 +175 115038 040 041 010 00
194500 1540N 06002W 9759 00289 0089 +219 +175 118042 043 037 005 00
194530 1540N 06001W 9758 00290 0090 +213 +175 118044 045 041 005 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3153 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:50 pm

They clearly found the center..

quite evident.. I cant see how there would not be west winds somewhere with the other quads have near perfect wind directions..

also NE quad.. finding lots of 40 plus kt winds.. highest sfmr is

194230 1536N 06008W 9761 00285 0088 +196 +178 106038 040 052 032 00

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#3154 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:53 pm

This is about as borderline a situation as I've ever seen. It's so close...
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#3155 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:57 pm

Observation 23


000
URNT15 KNHC 011956
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 23 20110801
194600 1541N 06000W 9755 00292 0091 +199 +175 119044 045 050 022 00
194630 1542N 05959W 9753 00296 0094 +202 +175 120040 042 039 010 00
194700 1543N 05958W 9757 00294 0094 +210 +175 121041 042 036 007 00
194730 1543N 05956W 9766 00286 0094 +215 +174 120041 043 036 005 00
194800 1544N 05955W 9757 00296 0094 +217 +174 120042 044 037 002 00
194830 1545N 05954W 9753 00300 0094 +219 +176 121042 044 035 006 00
194900 1546N 05953W 9757 00295 0093 +220 +178 123042 044 036 004 00
194930 1546N 05952W 9763 00289 0095 +219 +180 125042 043 037 004 00
195000 1547N 05950W 9756 00298 0094 +220 +184 124042 043 034 001 00
195030 1548N 05949W 9761 00293 0094 +221 +186 126041 042 034 001 00
195100 1549N 05948W 9758 00294 0094 +224 +189 126040 040 034 002 00
195130 1549N 05947W 9758 00295 0094 +222 +192 127038 039 033 000 00
195200 1550N 05946W 9756 00296 0093 +225 +194 130037 039 032 003 00
195230 1551N 05944W 9764 00291 0093 +225 +196 132039 040 033 001 00
195300 1552N 05943W 9766 00288 0094 +224 +198 133040 042 035 001 00
195330 1552N 05942W 9764 00291 0094 +223 +200 133039 040 032 001 00
195400 1553N 05941W 9756 00298 0094 +224 +201 131039 039 035 001 00
195430 1554N 05939W 9758 00295 0094 +224 +202 130037 038 031 002 00
195500 1555N 05938W 9760 00293 0094 +223 +202 134037 040 028 001 00
195530 1556N 05937W 9757 00295 0093 +224 +203 137037 038 029 001 00
$$
;
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Re:

#3156 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:57 pm

KWT wrote:SouthFloridawx, really does depend on the state of it when it reaches Hispaniola and the exacts of the upper pattern at the time as well.

Hispaniola weakens, sometimes severely...rarely does it kill outright though without shear helping out.


Looking at the plots, 91L looks like it will keep moving 15-20 as it crosses Hispaniola then slows in the Bahamas. Less time over the big mountains may keep the circulation from complete destruction?
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#3157 Postby jonj2040 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:57 pm

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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
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#3158 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:59 pm

Even if they don't upgrade at 5, were in for an interesting Special TWO. They've been putting those out around every advisory time lately.
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Re:

#3159 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:59 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:This is about as borderline a situation as I've ever seen. It's so close...

I say upgrade. It already in the islands, so Warnings would neeed to go up asap. But then again, Id wait so it doesnt poof and they look like fools, so...yeah borderline
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3160 Postby TampaBayBee » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:59 pm

Within spitting distance of Hebert Box.
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