ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[Ivanhater]

72 hours NHC forecast

[JonathanBelles]

If somebody can point out any LLC at 79.6W, please do. I cannot see anything out there.

[psyclone]

what happened to the idea floating around yesterday that if this developed it would be shunted off to the north and eventually northeast? that graphic just posted by ivanhater shows very little movement through 72 hours. is the northeast solution unlikely or off the table now?

[SouthFloridawx]

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 94, 2011060518, , BEST, 0, 168N, 796W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

We have best track with one position and SSD dvorak T numbers with another. Which is the right one?

SSD Dvorak T Numbers

05/1745 UTC 16.9N 78.8W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Weatherfreak000]

Appears to be self-sufficient. 94L doesn't seem to require diurnal maximum to fire convection, therefore I would jump odds above 50/50 it develops.

Track seeming similar to 05 Arlene? Wow. What a season we got in store this year.

[KWT]

what happened to the idea floating around yesterday that if this developed it would be shunted off to the north and eventually northeast? that graphic just posted by ivanhater shows very little movement through 72 hours. is the northeast solution unlikely or off the table now?

I wouldn't say its off the table but that solution did require a system developing fairly quickly and tapping into the weakness, models seem quite keen to take it further west then that idea.

[Ivanhater]

Deep convection continues to grow closer to the LLC with the outflow continuing to expand. Helps with the upper high strengthening overhead...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[cycloneye]

Radar from Cuba shows rotation in the clouds. The radar quality is not so good.

[Rgv20]

12z CMC really happy again...

Wednesday morning


Saturday morning


In my opinion is to fast thru the first 72 hours.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the Visible floater, it appears that the convection seems to be shifting to the west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[jlauderdal]

what happened to the idea floating around yesterday that if this developed it would be shunted off to the north and eventually northeast? that graphic just posted by ivanhater shows very little movement through 72 hours. is the northeast solution unlikely or off the table now?

this sounds positive




WEATHER CONDITIONS BEYOND WEDNESDAY WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. MOST MODELS ARE NOW CONVERGING TOWARD A SIMILAR
SOLUTION WITH ECMWF BEING THE MOST PERSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA BY LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEX BY
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GFS,
LIKEWISE, INCREASES POPS FOR THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH DOES NOT SEEM AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A MODEST
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS, HOWEVER, COULD INCREASE
FURTHER IF THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND.

[Rgv20]

Looking at the Visible floater, it appears that the convection seems to be shifting to the west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Taking that signature comma shape.

[KWT]

Good to see the CMC is back on form again developing a top end TS/low end hurricane and makes landfall as a powerful system.

[Ivanhater]

Good to see the CMC is back on form again developing a top end TS/low end hurricane and makes landfall as a powerful system.

Well not so good to see it make landfall at my house

A nice sloppy tropical storm would be welcome here though

[Rgv20]

Sorry Ivan did not see you already posted the CMC.

Here is the UKMET.

By Friday morning it has the Low around the Yucatan channel.

[Ivanhater]

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z HWRF develops 94L quickly and sends it NE. The GFDL develops a TS in the Gulf and turns it W/WNW.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFDL

[Rgv20]

12zGFDL high end tropical storm/category one hurricane in the middle of the Gulf. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2011060512-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Keep in mind that the HWRF and GFDL are not the best models to follow and a developing tropical cyclone. On the other hand when its already develop they are on the top of the class.