ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[gatorcane]

If it gets into the position it does by 144hrs iot will 100% recurve, the flow is just too troughy on the GFS for it to stand any chance of reaching the east coast, eventually it'll get swept out to sea from that position...

Reminds me of a Hortense and Marilyn actually...

Sure but we are talking 180 hours plus here. Still alot of room for error.

I need to see the ECMWF showing that kind of trough that far out and I will be more convinced. Right now the ECMWF (and CMC) build back a ridge along the Eastern Coast of the US pretty quickly by then....

Though even so we are still 8+ days away at least and models can flip-flop....

If you look at what the models were doing with Frances in 2004 which was in a similar postion, they were also recurving her and look what happened.

I am not saying that is going to happen, but still nothing is certain at this point.

Of course chances are it never makes it to the US mainland as most of them miss anyway.

[KWT]

Hortense was recurving...just not at a very slanted angle, but NNE is a recurve...just it recurved right into land and was indeed a big hit up there.

Recurve doesn't always = no landfall, many times systems have recurved right into a landmass as they exit the tropics.

[caneman]

Far, far, far to early to be calling for a recurve folks. So, as my youngsters would say 'just chillax' and lets wait and see in another day or two.

[KWT]

Sure but we are talking 180 hours plus here. Still alot of room for error.

I need to see the ECMWF showing that kind of trough that far out and I will be more convinced. Right now the ECMWF (and CMC) build back a ridge along the Eastern Coast of the US pretty quickly by then....

Though even so we are still 8+ days away at least and models can flip-flop....

ECM has no rebuilding ridge...look at the *heights*, there is a CLEAR weakness.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

EVen stronger at 196hrs:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Overdone that is though IMO!!!

you can even see a small upper low present between the upper ridges...and troughing present between 65-80W...not too strong but enough to turn a decent system northwards I'd have thought.

It'd have to stay sub-hurricane to miss the weakness both the GFs/ECM have...

As you say, long ole way to go yet though...but the broad pattern is usually quite good at this range.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hortense was recurving...just not at a very slanted angle, but NNE is a recurve...just it recurved right into land and was indeed a big hit up there.

Recurve doesn't always = no landfall, many times systems have recurved right into a landmass as they exit the tropics.

I know that, but usually when somebody mentions recurve people assume that the storm in question didn't impact the mainland of North America.

[Gustywind]

Latest visible: SSD floater

[KWT]

Still abit elongated thanksd to the two vorts competing, but a good convective burst will certainly help get this system going I suppose and help to concentrate it.

[cycloneye]

I always like at nightime the RGB images. It looks like convection is increasing over the main low.

[Gustywind]

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

Dr. Rick Knabb, The Weather Channel

Jul 29, 2011 4:55 pm ET

ATLANTIC BASIN

An area of surface low pressure associated with a well-defined tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic, a little more than half way between Africa and the Windward Islands. Upper-level winds are forecast to remain weak through the weekend as the system moves over increasingly warm waters, so development is possible before the system reaches the Windward and Leeward Islands by Monday. It could then affect other portions of the eastern Caribbean from the Virgin Islands to Haiti.

[BigA]

Do you think the main low is at 40 or 44 west? This could be important in track.

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather.com http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... n-bull.asp

Beyond Tropical Storm Don, Bullies Await

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Jul 29, 2011; 3:25 PM ET

In recent weeks, tropical waves emerging off the coast of Africa have progressively been more vigorous.

Don't look now, but a new system in the Atlantic is likely to be the next tropical system of concern and it could cause big problems over the Antilles next week.

A strong tropical wave is cruising westward past the Cape Verde Islands this weekend, and the early indications are that this system will bring heavy rainfall and gusty squalls to the Windward and Leeward islands next week.

The system, even if it is not yet a tropical depression or tropical storm at the time of passage could bring risk to lives and property from flash flooding, mudslides and washouts.

The same system is being shone by some of our forecast tools to grow stronger while crossing into the Caribbean or over the Antilles that border the Caribbean and the Atlantic.

According to Tropical Weather and Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "Interests in the Windward Islands, Virgin Islands and even Puerto Rico should monitor the progression of this new system."

This system is worth keeping a close eye on as we are entering the point in the Atlantic Hurricane Season, when Cape Verde systems take center stage. Storms that originate in this area of the Atlantic produce hurricanes among the strongest we ever see beginning in August.

Because there's a chance the blocking area of high pressure that has protected much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Seaboard thus far this season may weaken starting next week, there is room for any tropical system that comes along to eventually get very close to the mainland U.S.

A modest and different tropical wave brought torrential rainfall on the island of Dominica this past week. The same tropical wave brought record rainfall to San Juan, Puerto Rico, Thursday.

The interaction of tropical waves with weak frontal zones from the north have led to excessive rainfall over parts of the Lesser Antilles since the second half of May. Even parts of Cuba, stricken by drought the past couple of years has been getting substantial rainfall over the past couple of months.

It was a tropical wave that passed through the Caribbean islands about a week ago that gave birth to Don.

[KWT]

Do you think the main low is at 40 or 44 west? This could be important in track.

44W is better defined, thats the main one, though the models aren't totally agreed on how it evolves from here...but I'd say the one at 44W will slowly drain the energy away from the other.

[cycloneye]

Do you think the main low is at 40 or 44 west? This could be important in track.

Between 43-44 west

[Evil Jeremy]

I think the NHC will go up to 40% at 8pm, which they should have done earlier in the day. There is a very decent chance of us having a system within 48 hours. 36 hours I think we could have a system.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheDreamTraveler]

It really just depends on how the storm interacts with the trough if it forms and gets into that area. Being so far out can cause a lot to change, and you can never say that you're 100% sure with any outcome that you have.

[WxEnthus]

Statistically there is often a tutt, short wave or at least a weakness that would pick up anything near the Bahamas.

Emphasis is mine -- I've seen this acronym a couple times the past few days, can someone tell me what it means? Thanks!

[Florida1118]

Statistically there is often a tutt, short wave or at least a weakness that would pick up anything near the Bahamas.

Emphasis is mine -- I've seen this acronym a couple times the past few days, can someone tell me what it means? Thanks!

Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A10.html

[KWT]

I know that, but usually when somebody mentions recurve people assume that the storm in question didn't impact the mainland of North America.

Yeah true, just being technical I suppose

Just waiting for the next GFDL run to see whether it decides to actually acknowledge this system exists!

[cycloneye]

50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DON LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[KWT]

Its only the con vection that is stopping the NHC from going to code red, and the fact the NHC believes conditions are favourable for development, that 50% is only going to increase.

Personally, I can't wait for recon again, hopefully it can become a hurricane and miss land, but the pattern at the moment is not great for the NE Caribbean, in fact its almost a carbon copy of what it was last year.

Still things can change. I think it might shift a touch south yet even if the models have the right general idea.