ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ROCK]

Nice 06Z GFS run in that it shows rain...I can handle a little wind..

[Blown Away]

12z TVCN suggests a WNW track towards the NE Caribbean. Those are scary tracks for the EC CONUS when the models move WNW and go just N of the NE Caribbean then bend back towards the W.

[underthwx]

http://www.beaumontweather.com/92L-93L-1345-081111.gif


This is a little old.....Golden Triangle Weather.....they have a little bit of everything on this site.

[cycloneye]

93L may get more favorable conditions down the road as the wet MJO is still forecast to enter the basin after the 15th.



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[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I'm a bit confused about this and if I'm wrong, please let me know. With the Death Ridge that WXMAN and other say will still be in place for quite awhile, how can the models be showing this storm in the gulf anywhere east of the texas Mexican border? Perhaps WXMAN can shine some light on this as well.
Thanks in advance!

I think there is confusion over the term "death ridge". There are actually 2 ridges in play that we have been calling a "death ridge". When the Atlantic/Bermuda high gets really strong and extends westward towards conus, we have been calling that a death ridge.

The folks in Texas and across the southeast have been experiencing their own conus "death ridge" too that has been in place, especially over texas, much of the summer and spring.

The ridge in Texas we would expect to shelter the state and northern gulf from an incoming storm approaching from the gulf, and anything approaching would seemingly follow the southern periphery into Mexico or southern texas.

The space between the atlantic ridge and the conus ridge could supply a pathway for storms to travel between if the weakness between them is big enough.

[Sanibel]

The middle Atlantic is still cool and showing early season influences. The question is if it makes it across and re-convects.

[Jevo]

GAH.. 93L is just looking all sorts of Ugly today..

It coulda been a Contenda!! Not for a little while now..

[SkeetoBite]

My prediction is it will eventually make landfall somewhere between Mexico and Bermuda.

Well,that's enough for me. Off to the store for fresh batteries...

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS never really develops it

[Tireman4]

My prediction is it will eventually make landfall somewhere between Mexico and Bermuda.

And that folks is why he gets paid the big bucks. Woo Hoo. Next storm please...

[ConvergenceZone]

GAH.. 93L is just looking all sorts of Ugly today..

It coulda been a Contenda!! Not for a little while now..

I ageee. Also the NHC percentage chance of development will probably be coming down today. I don't see any reason at all for it to remain at 40%.... 10 to 20 is much more likely.

[SoupBone]

All that probably means is development further west which puts the U.S coast at a greater risk. Remember 2005, most waves developed west of 55 degrees.

That's true, but in 2005 did we have this type of persistent death ridge over the south central U.S.?

[SoupBone]

93L may get more favorable conditions down the road as the wet MJO is still forecast to enter the basin after the 15th.

I've asked this question previously with no one answering, but how accurate have the historical MJO forecasts been?

[SoupBone]

My prediction is it will eventually make landfall somewhere between Mexico and Bermuda.

You didn't put the disclaimer. I'm reporting this post.

[Portastorm]

93L may get more favorable conditions down the road as the wet MJO is still forecast to enter the basin after the 15th.

I've asked this question previously with no one answering, but how accurate have the historical MJO forecasts been?

I have no clue but to provide you with at least *some* answer ... here is a link to a scholarly article which examines MJO forecasts:

http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/abstracts/Gottschalck-Text.pdf

[SoupBone]

93L may get more favorable conditions down the road as the wet MJO is still forecast to enter the basin after the 15th.

I've asked this question previously with no one answering, but how accurate have the historical MJO forecasts been?

I have no clue but to provide you with at least *some* answer ... here is a link to a scholarly article which examines MJO forecasts:

http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/abstracts/Gottschalck-Text.pdf

I'll take a look at that. Thanks!


I always see references to the MJO forecasts, but I could never find anything that show how accurate or inaccurate they are.

[underthwx]

How often are the most reliable models updated?

[Kory]

Wow the 12z GFS doesn't strengthen it nearly as much as it did on the 06z. Keeps it fairly week through the Caribbean.

[Kory]

It also shows the death ridge reestablishing itself across the south central United States...guess there is just no relief for those in Texas. Now if it were to become a stronger storm, we'd have to see if it could erode the ridge. Too early to tell...

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[wxman57]

I always see references to the MJO forecasts, but I could never find anything that show how accurate or inaccurate they are.

Note that there is NO MJO forecast to reach the East Pacific over the coming weeks. If you check the weekly MJO site, they discuss that prediction of some increased convection over the East Pac and Gulf/Caribbean being related to other things, not the MJO.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.pdf

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.ppt