ATL: IRENE - Models

[x-y-no]

Forgive my rudeness, but can somebody explain to me why the hell the 06Z GFDL continues to be the stubborn "west" outlier? Irene is clearly moving more north or "east" of the track.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

It's keeping the Atlantic ridge stronger.

6z GFDL at 72 hours :
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL072.gif

vs the 6z GFS at 72 hours: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif

GFDL has significantly more Atlantic ridge at 500mb. GFS has a wide-open weakness north.
GFDL it's centered over FL and narrower.

84 hours GFDL :
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL084.gif
588 line is at FL/GA border.

GFS same hour: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif
588 line is at SC/NC border. Big difference.

[GCANE]

By the time Irene gets close to the FL coast, most likely will be a major.

There will be all sorts of wobbles by then.

I wouldn't be splitting hairs on where landfall may occur at this point or pay a lot of attention to a precise forecast track.

[jlauderdal]

Forgive my rudeness, but can somebody explain to me why the hell the 06Z GFDL continues to be the stubborn "west" outlier? Irene is clearly moving more north or "east" of the track.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Honestly the GFDL is not that far off from current movement...ya its a bit north of there right now, but its got the heading down...Its def. an outlier, but I have learned to not totally discount its solutions..

gfdl has its fair share of "wins" the last five years so NHC has to respect it, there is no reason for them to bite on anything right now, go down the middle and see what happens, crunch time comes later, the models are actually in very good agreement with the idea, now its fine tuning

[summersquall]

How seriously should the GFDL which shows a path through the Penninsula and the UKMET
be taken as these are Outliers? What do they see or don't see compared to the others?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0859.shtml?

The ridge is the big key, ECMWF and NOGAPS break it down, UKMET and GFDL still see it

WTNT44 KNHC 220859
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW
OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS
AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.[/b][/u]

Is it logical to infer that a larger and more poweful system would have a heightened effect on that upper-level mass confluence and increase the likelihood that that ridge is maintained thus favoring a more westerly (nogaps, ecmwf) track?

[bucman1]

Pardon my ignorance -what is 30 DM mean-thank you in advance.

Craig

[Blown Away]

12z TVCN more E of SFL may recurve away from CONUS??

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots
Click on Storm 09

[deltadog03]

The 30DM (Deca-meters) is how we measure the height fields....Long story short.....594DM ridge is stronger than the 588DM ridge.... Hope that helps

[bucman1]

By the time Irene gets close to the FL coast, most likely will be a major.

There will be all sorts of wobbles by then.

I wouldn't be splitting hairs on where landfall may occur at this point or pay a lot of attention to a precise forecast track.

But that could be the difference between east coast or west coast for example

[SFLcane]

12 BAMS even futher north. It would not suprise me if this thing ends up going out to sea eventually with all these wobbles to the north recently with irene.

[GTStorm]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

looks like the hook is on! should we expect a significant change to the NHC track at 11, based on this guidance?

[AdamFirst]

What?

All of a sudden the ridge disappears and it's going out to sea?


We desperately need the Gulfstream data...

[GTStorm]

What?

All of a sudden the ridge disappears and it's going out to sea?

Let's hope so!

[ObsessedMiami]

What?

All of a sudden the ridge disappears and it's going out to sea?


We desperately need the Gulfstream data...

Yeah, what happened to the ridge?

[clfenwi]

A little GDFL/HWRF performance comparision using the recent recon fix of 18.85N 67W as verifying position for 12Z.

24 h

HWRF 18.4 67.4 35 nm error
GFDL 18.38 68.2 74 nm error

18h

HWRF 18.6 67.7 43 nm error
GFDL 18.28 68.69 104 nm error

12h

HWRF 18.6 67.5 37 nm error
GFDL 67.4 18.32 39 nm error

6h

HWRF 18.4 67.1 28 nm error
GFDL 18.33 67.18 33 nm error

[maxintensity]

Euro and GFS track would rival Katrina as the costliest hurricane in US history. Indeed, if it parallel's the entire US eastern seaboard this puppy will have books written about it.

[Bocadude85]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

looks like the hook is on! should we expect a significant change to the NHC track at 11, based on this guidance?

I would say the 11am track will shift east showing Irene passing a safe distance east of South Florida.. but that is just my opinion.

[Weatherboy1]

Wow, looking like a pretty decent shift east (again) in the models. NHC path will now be even further east at 11, I'm guessing. Will definitely be breathing a bit easier here in South FL if this trend continues through the next model cycle or two, though obviously still watching closely!

[jdray]

GFDL and UKMET still west of Florida, they don't see the ridge breaking down.

[ballred]

What?

All of a sudden the ridge disappears and it's going out to sea?


We desperately need the Gulfstream data...

Just out of curiosity, shouldn't there be some buoy data that would be available to provide at least surface pressures in the area that the ridge is supposed to be located? Perhaps taking a look at those might help in understanding what is out there at least in the interim.

[shaggy]

Funny how the models show the ridge weakening faster yet the 5am disco says heights are still strong over bermuda and the ridge is holding on stronger. Will be interesting to see if they trust the models that weaken the ridge despite real time data showing the ridge holding strong.