ATL: IRENE - Models

[GTStorm]

Wow, looking like a pretty decent shift east (again) in the models. NHC path will now be even further east at 11, I'm guessing. Will definitely be breathing a bit easier here in South FL if this trend continues through the next model cycle or two, though obviously still watching closely!

shift is significant enough that Irene may affect...no one. Whod'a thunk that yesterday?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[linkerweather]

What?

All of a sudden the ridge disappears and it's going out to sea?


We desperately need the Gulfstream data...

Just out of curiosity, shouldn't there be some buoy data that would be available to provide at least surface pressures in the area that the ridge is supposed to be located? Perhaps taking a look at those might help in understanding what is out there at least in the interim.

Surface data isn't going to help make that determination. There is a lack of upper air data and that is what is needed. That is why the NHC referenced upper air data taken from Bermuda in the discussion.

[lester]

Wow, looking like a pretty decent shift east (again) in the models. NHC path will now be even further east at 11, I'm guessing. Will definitely be breathing a bit easier here in South FL if this trend continues through the next model cycle or two, though obviously still watching closely!

shift is significant enough that Irene may affect...no one. Whod'a thunk that yesterday?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think you're underestimating the ridge just a tad bit, the major models show no recurve.

[GTStorm]

I think you're underestimating the ridge just a tad bit, the major models show no recurve.

certainly possible. But the trend seems to be encouraging, especially the TVCN (doesn't that take into account pretty much all of the guidance?)

[OuterBanker]

Good morning all. Just checked in. Both recent models and JB are downright scary. At least I know that the next shift will be out to sea. The best scenario for everryone. It's okay with me if we go another year without a strike. With the latest models we could easily see multi billion dollar damage.

[AdamFirst]

You guys are letting your guard down...you're going to get burned when the 12z or 18z dynamic models are still near the east coast...

[SouthFLTropics]

Alright who's going to place their chips on the table for the 12z, 18z, and 00z models. I'm going to go with a slight shift east on the 12z, with a slight shift west on the 18z, and then a bigger shift west on the 00z with the G-IV data. I've seen the models underestimate the ridges too many times. Furthermore, when Stacy Stewart mentions in the discussion that Irene could pump up the ridge and steer it further west, I listen.

SFT

[Evil Jeremy]

The GFS loves underestimating its ridges. I fear that will be the mantra trhough the upcoming days.

[otowntiger]

Wow, looking like a pretty decent shift east (again) in the models. NHC path will now be even further east at 11, I'm guessing. Will definitely be breathing a bit easier here in South FL if this trend continues through the next model cycle or two, though obviously still watching closely!

shift is significant enough that Irene may affect...no one. Whod'a thunk that yesterday?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks that way to me too. I think that many models that show that solution within 3 days can't be disregarded. Obviously they are seeing something unanticipated a day or 2 ago.

Off topic (slightly) where are all the pro mets? Just as soon as this storm began to come together they left here like rats on a sinking ship! Of course there are a couple here and there (Deltadog, linkerweather, etc) I guess they are too busy to hang around here much with all that's going on.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

[Evil Jeremy]

Alright who's going to place their chips on the table for the 12z, 18z, and 00z models. I'm going to go with a slight shift east on the 12z, with a slight shift west on the 18z, and then a bigger shift west on the 00z with the G-IV data. I've seen the models underestimate the ridges too many times. Furthermore, when Stacy Stewart mentions in the discussion that Irene could pump up the ridge and steer it further west, I listen.

SFT

I just don't know anymore. These runs are becoming unpredictale. At this point I could care less about the.next 2 runs. The 00z might be the most important run of this storm's life.

[clfenwi]

Another HWRF/GFDL comparision of forecasts for 12Z this morning, this time with intensities. Recon measured 990 mb.

mb / kts
24h GFDL 990 / 68.9
HWRF 991 / 62

18h GFDL 1000 / 38.4
HWRF 991 / 57

12h GFDL 993.57 / 51.67
HWRF 986 / 64

6h GFDL 982 / 83.8
HWRF 988 / 62



Given how weak the GFDL's 18Z forecast was, it's no surprise the track forecast did so poorly. Pretty good 24 h forecasts from each.

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't see any way Iren won't strike somewhere in th USA. The ridging is to strong to let Irene out to sea.

[gatorcane]

Well models are shifting east as is the CONSENSUS track TVCN.

Trends continue to be good for Florida, BAD for the Bahamas and Carolinas.

[Meteorcane]

Well models are shifting east as is the CONSENSUS track TVCN.

Trends continue to be good for Florida, BAD for the Bahamas and Carolinas.

Think this will completely recurve?

[fci]

What?

All of a sudden the ridge disappears and it's going out to sea?


We desperately need the Gulfstream data...

Just out of curiosity, shouldn't there be some buoy data that would be available to provide at least surface pressures in the area that the ridge is supposed to be located? Perhaps taking a look at those might help in understanding what is out there at least in the interim.

Surface data isn't going to help make that determination. There is a lack of upper air data and that is what is needed. That is why the NHC referenced upper air data taken from Bermuda in the discussion.

I believe that I read earlier that the sampling will occur tonight.
Do you if there is a reason why they seemed to have waited so long for this to be scheduled to occur.
With a potential Major, that data would sure be helpful now!

[GTStorm]

Alright who's going to place their chips on the table for the 12z, 18z, and 00z models. I'm going to go with a slight shift east on the 12z, with a slight shift west on the 18z, and then a bigger shift west on the 00z with the G-IV data. I've seen the models underestimate the ridges too many times. Furthermore, when Stacy Stewart mentions in the discussion that Irene could pump up the ridge and steer it further west, I listen.

SFT

I'll play...I'll go with a progressively eastward shift each run, with the 00z towards the OB, thinking (hoping) that the ridge is overdone.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AdamFirst]

Gulfstream IV flight takes off at 1:30 PM from Tampa.

Data will be ingested in tonight's 00z models.

[fci]

Wow, looking like a pretty decent shift east (again) in the models. NHC path will now be even further east at 11, I'm guessing. Will definitely be breathing a bit easier here in South FL if this trend continues through the next model cycle or two, though obviously still watching closely!

shift is significant enough that Irene may affect...no one. Whod'a thunk that yesterday?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks that way to me too. I think that many models that show that solution within 3 days can't be disregarded. Obviously they are seeing something unanticipated a day or 2 ago.

Off topic (slightly) where are all the pro mets? Just as soon as this storm began to come together they left here like rats on a sinking ship! Of course there are a couple here and there (Deltadog, linkerweather, etc) I guess they are too busy to hang around here much with all that's going on.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[/quote]

To continue the slightly OT discussion just once more; I have seen very few Pro Mets (wxman for a while, AFM not at all), much fewer than usual and no posts at all in the Tropical Analysis Forum for this storm either.
I miss their insight and the sanity that they bring to the site.
Lucky to have Delta, Linker, Aric, Jay helping us understand but I miss also having the others and the Tropical Analysis Forum

[artist]

a question to all the model keepers - when Emily was to pass by, what were the models predicting? Were they all in agreement with her staying off to our east? Or just some like now? Thanks in advance!

[Vortex]

Forgive my rudeness, but can somebody explain to me why the hell the 06Z GFDL continues to be the stubborn "west" outlier? Irene is clearly moving more north or "east" of the track.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Honestly the GFDL is not that far off from current movement...ya its a bit north of there right now, but its got the heading down...Its def. an outlier, but I have learned to not totally discount its solutions..

gfdl has its fair share of "wins" the last five years so NHC has to respect it, there is no reason for them to bite on anything right now, go down the middle and see what happens, crunch time comes later, the models are actually in very good agreement with the idea, now its fine tuning

Well said, many times when I do notice the GFDL as an outlier I'll take notice as "overall" I've seen it perform exceptionally well trackwise over the years. If the trend continues another 2-3 runs then I'll be concerned here in SFL.