ATL: IRENE - Models

[gatorcane]

I suspect if the GFDL keeps the system north of Hispaniola allow her to strengthen....the GFDL would be close to the HWRF an TVCN...east of Florida by at least 75 miles or more.

GFDL just weakens her over Hispaniola allowing a due west movement for about 24 hours or so

[fci]

a question to all the model keepers - when Emily was to pass by, what were the models predicting? Were they all in agreement with her staying off to our east? Or just some like now? Thanks in advance!

I seem to remember the earliest models had Emily coming here (Monday night when the first advisory came out the track was here in 5 days). I think after that the models started migrating East away from the mainland. She ended up, track-wise; pretty much on the mark. I dont recall South Florida being in the "crosshairs" model-wise; for very long.

[Evil Jeremy]

a question to all the model keepers - when Emily was to pass by, what were the models predicting? Were they all in agreement with her staying off to our east? Or just some like now? Thanks in advance!

Before Emily died, I think th models were moving back west again. She really defied all the odels though, never moving NW ike predicted.

[Bocadude85]

a question to all the model keepers - when Emily was to pass by, what were the models predicting? Were they all in agreement with her staying off to our east? Or just some like now? Thanks in advance!

The vast majority of models had Emily passing to our east

[clfenwi]

a question to all the model keepers - when Emily was to pass by, what were the models predicting? Were they all in agreement with her staying off to our east? Or just some like now? Thanks in advance!

12Z guidance before Emily dissipated the first time. As you can see, most had her off-shore. Looks like UKMET was an exception.

[SouthFloridawx]

The 12Z NAM is running...

http://tinyurl.com/3gatcxn

[clfenwi]

[I believe that I read earlier that the sampling will occur tonight.
Do you if there is a reason why they seemed to have waited so long for this to be scheduled to occur.
With a potential Major, that data would sure be helpful now!

My sense is that when the flight was first scheduled, Irene wasn't expected to be as far north as it is now. Had they foreseen her getting north of the islands the way it has, they may have had a flight yesterday. Skimming through the recon chapter of the Hurricane Operations Plan, there is no set guidance for surveillence (upper-air) missions the way there is for recon. The requirement is merely "Up to two synoptic surveillance missions per 24-hour period for potentially land-falling storms."

[x-y-no]

I suspect if the GFDL keeps the system north of Hispaniola allow her to strengthen....the GFDL would be close to the HWRF an TVCN...east of Florida by at least 75 miles or more.

GFDL just weakens her over Hispaniola allowing a due west movement for about 24 hours or so

I don't agree that's the reason for the GFDL track ... it's really keeping the mid-level ridging over the Atlantic significantly stronger than GFS does - that's the main reason it's steering it more west. A stronger storm wouldn't change that.

For example, by 84 hours, the 6Z GFS has the 588 height line up at the SC/NC border. GFDL has it at FL/GA border.

[viberama]

The 12Z NAM is running...

http://tinyurl.com/3gatcxn

The first runs of the NAM really show that ridge collapsing. Interesting to say the least.

[CrazyC83]

If that ridge collapses, recurve? Northeast landfall?

[Vortex]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

looks like the hook is on! should we expect a significant change to the NHC track at 11, based on this guidance?

I would say the 11am track will shift east showing Irene passing a safe distance east of South Florida.. but that is just my opinion.

If the GFDL wasnt one of the west oulier I'd expect a significant shift east. While I expect some shift east at 11 I think theyll digest all the 12z guidance before making a significant change east if need be. If thats the case I'd expect that with the 5pm package.** And just the other day the euro was over the yucatan and GFS in Houston....bring on the 12 Z.....

[SFLcane]

another view of the 12z models...

[AdamFirst]

12z NAM is pushing the storm into the central Cuban coast in 48 hours. High pressure ridge looks solid.

For what it's worth.

[Vortex]

another view of the 12z models...

Notice OFC1...thats will probablly be the 11am track...If thats the case they didnt swing it nearly as far to the right as I would of thought...

[SouthFloridawx]

12z NAM is pushing the storm into the central Cuban coast in 48 hours.

For what it's worth.

Yep and you can see the troughing in Northeast and Great Lakes really flatting out in the next 48 hours. Question is what is that energy in South Central Canada going to do?

[Vortex]

and dont be surprised as she continues wnw to see the models start pointing right back towards FL...

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z NAM is pushing the storm into the central Cuban coast in 48 hours. High pressure ridge looks solid.

For what it's worth.

Its not worth much but you could also note the BAMMS and the GFS Ensambles bring it to E cuba as well before a NNW motion...Tells me ridge may be stronger in the short term...

[viberama]

12z NAM is pushing the storm into the central Cuban coast in 48 hours. High pressure ridge looks solid.

For what it's worth.

Those are some big swings in that ridge. Just more uncetainty I guess.

[SouthFloridawx]

12Z NAM through 54 hours:

850mb vorticity and 500mb heights

http://tinyurl.com/43ggcaw

[jdray]

12Z NAM through 54 hours:

850mb vorticity and 500mb heights

http://tinyurl.com/43ggcaw

WSW at the 48-54 hr mark as well.

The ridge is the key to Irene's track, will be a fun week.