ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Florida1118]

Wow, good to see S2K back and up. Seemed to have CRASHED. I hope each time things ramp up that this doesn't continue to happen!?!

Yeah I was going to ask about it but it didnt seem to effect others

Still only getting to site via I Phone. Home PC gets a "General Error" SQL ERROR [mysql4]

Yeah my desktop was doing the same thing, General error or server error. I closed out IE and re-opened it a few minutes later and it worked fine. But I dont know, Ivanhater didnt seem to have the problem, he posted while it was down for me

[hurricanedude]

may not be waiting for anything, may just not upgrade until 11???
I dunno

[Hurricaneman]

Anyone have any ideas what they're waiting for?

A vortex message I would think

[artist]

this is from the nrl/navy site when I click on the ATCF -

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
storm id: al912011 1. tcfa message

[TwisterFanatic]

Gang, we don't officially have Emily yet. So please let's not refer to 91L as such. Thanks.

Sorry, I edited.

[SouthDadeFish]

Anyone have any ideas what they're waiting for?

A vortex message I would think

That's what I mean though. Why no VDM? Doesn't usually take this long... Center didn't even seem that broad to me. Sure highest winds are displaced, but I've seen far worse.

[artist]

Now that the models have a real center to work with, what will be the affect on the next model runs?

That's the million dollar question and I am on pins and needles knowing we have to wait for awhile.

[Extratropical94]

I suppose we all know how the server must feel.
400 people trying to refresh you every ten seconds
Anyway, Observation 31


000
URNT15 KNHC 012116
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 31 20110801
210600 1541N 06044W 9760 00281 0079 +231 +206 106040 041 031 002 00
210630 1541N 06046W 9757 00284 0079 +231 +208 107040 042 032 002 00
210700 1542N 06047W 9761 00279 0079 +226 +209 108039 040 032 001 00
210730 1542N 06049W 9763 00278 0077 +228 +209 104039 041 032 003 00
210800 1542N 06051W 9756 00282 0076 +230 +208 101041 041 035 001 00
210830 1542N 06053W 9758 00280 0075 +234 +209 098040 040 035 002 00
210900 1542N 06055W 9760 00279 0075 +235 +209 097039 040 036 001 00
210930 1542N 06057W 9762 00277 0076 +230 +211 096039 040 036 004 00
211000 1542N 06059W 9760 00280 0077 +230 +211 096038 039 035 003 00
211030 1543N 06101W 9756 00283 0077 +228 +212 094038 039 035 002 00
211100 1543N 06103W 9760 00279 0077 +230 +212 090040 041 036 002 00
211130 1543N 06105W 9764 00277 0077 +230 +212 088040 041 036 001 00
211200 1543N 06107W 9762 00279 0077 +233 +212 087040 041 037 001 00
211230 1543N 06108W 9755 00284 0078 +231 +213 089037 040 033 002 00
211300 1543N 06110W 9763 00277 0077 +234 +214 090040 042 035 001 00
211330 1543N 06112W 9761 00280 0077 +235 +215 088040 041 034 002 00
211400 1544N 06114W 9759 00282 0078 +233 +216 086037 037 033 002 00
211430 1544N 06116W 9755 00285 0078 +231 +217 085036 038 032 003 00
211500 1544N 06118W 9765 00276 0078 +234 +217 085036 037 032 003 00
211530 1544N 06120W 9758 00282 0077 +235 +217 082036 036 032 002 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

good example of angular momentum going on right now,.,. center being pulled back to convection... ... fun to watch

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[capepoint]

Who knows. Maybe they are confering with the government of the nearby islands to give them a heads-up on the upgrade??????

[AdamFirst]

I feel like the pros are doing it on purpose...putting us on pins and needles

[Bocadude85]

good example of angular momentum going on right now,.,. center being pulled back to convection... ... fun to watch

Yup you can see the LLC being pulled into the deep convection

[artist]

there is a change going on at nrl site. ATCF has this storm info completely removed at this moment...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/index1.html

[KWT]

Whats impressive is the speed of which the convection is blowing up overn the center, the old MLC is toast as I've been saying all day.

I thought this process would happen last night but alas seems like better late then never.

Looks like we are good to go, I'd go with a 60-70kts system into Hispaniola, out into the Bahamas as a low end TS/TD then slow strengthening back towards hurricane status by 2nd landfall IF its a Florida landfall...IF its a Gulf landfall, I'd probably go with a 2/3 instead...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthDadeFish]

Very deep convection firing very near the LLC:

[Extratropical94]

Observation 32...going south again


000
URNT15 KNHC 012126
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 32 20110801
211600 1544N 06122W 9756 00283 0076 +235 +217 080035 036 031 002 00
211630 1544N 06123W 9761 00278 0076 +230 +218 074036 037 033 004 00
211700 1544N 06125W 9762 00277 0075 +240 +218 070034 035 030 001 00
211730 1545N 06127W 9758 00281 0076 +238 +218 070033 034 028 002 00
211800 1545N 06129W 9764 00276 0076 +235 +219 067033 034 028 002 00
211830 1545N 06131W 9761 00279 0076 +235 +219 068034 035 028 004 00
211900 1545N 06133W 9761 00279 0077 +230 +220 067035 036 027 002 00
211930 1545N 06134W 9759 00281 0077 +234 +219 066036 036 028 004 00
212000 1545N 06136W 9761 00280 0078 +231 +217 064037 038 031 001 00
212030 1545N 06138W 9760 00282 0078 +234 +217 066032 033 026 002 03
212100 1545N 06140W 9755 00287 0079 +235 +216 058028 030 /// /// 03
212130 1543N 06140W 9761 00279 0078 +235 +217 058031 033 025 002 03
212200 1542N 06140W 9758 00282 0078 +235 +218 056034 035 025 003 00
212230 1540N 06140W 9761 00280 0078 +235 +218 054034 035 027 001 00
212300 1538N 06140W 9760 00279 0076 +236 +218 051033 033 029 001 00
212330 1537N 06140W 9757 00283 0076 +229 +218 052033 035 029 004 00
212400 1535N 06140W 9756 00280 0073 +233 +218 049031 033 031 002 00
212430 1533N 06140W 9765 00271 0074 +229 +216 051028 030 023 002 00
212500 1532N 06140W 9760 00275 0071 +237 +214 048030 031 026 003 00
212530 1530N 06140W 9760 00276 0071 +237 +212 047024 027 025 003 00
$$
;

[dixiebreeze]

1745 UTC 14.9N 57.1W T2.5/2.5 91L -- Atlantic

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Dean4Storms]

We definitely have a closed surface low now, no reason why they wouldn't go ahead with TS Emily. If it slows any this storm could really get its act together.