ATL: IRENE - Models

[HurricaneWarning92]

The operational NAM is horrible with tropical cyclones, you are only -removed- if you are using it as evidence of possible impacts.

It is a good model to predict synoptics. who cares if its track is off. its the weather patterns/synomptics.

[Nimbus]

I don't see how that could happen with all the models showing the weekness strong enough to pull it north east of south fla. Unless the high builds in even for the short term then I guess it would be possible.

The models have to deal with some percentage of random unpredictable changes. I agree central Cuba sounds a bit far west but wierd random things do happen. For example suppose a model predicts a track running up the Florida east coast. The close proximity to Hispaniola brings some dry air into the system weakening it and when it finally does get going a hurricane with small wind fields and a only a 15 mile wide eye forms.

Now the system is drawn NW toward a ridge weakness as it spins up over the warm waters of the Bahamas. The models shift west to adjust for the slower development THEN the system decides to go through an eye wall replacement cycle. A small tightly wound system is almost certain to do that. 6 to 12 hours after the EWRC begins and after staggering west 50 to 100 miles a new much larger eye forms and the system starts moving in a slightly different direction.

Hopefully the NHC will get lucky and the EWRC will occur 48 hours or more from landfall. Obviously just a single random EWRC could change the forecast from NC back to Miami or Miami to EGOM.

"Live long and prosper"

[Vortex]

Troughing is more pronounced at 00 hour.

00 Hour




72 Hours

Initialized very well...

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

ANyone know when the upper air mission will fly? When that data is injected the models get better right?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

That NAM run can go straight too....

edit by mf_dolphin

[SeminoleWind]

just thought i would throw this out there take it for whats its worth i guess

day 3 fronts
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92f.gif

day 4
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/94f.gif

day 5
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/96f.gif

day 6
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/98f.gif

[gatorcane]

looks to head towards Miami, FL:

[CrazyC83]

just thought i would throw this out there take it for whats its worth i guess

day 3 fronts
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92f.gif

day 4
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/94f.gif

day 5
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/96f.gif

day 6
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/98f.gif

Based on that map with the ridge to the east, steering currents could just break down off the Florida east coast...then who knows...

[Vortex]

H+78 about to make landfall in SE fl



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[gatorcane]

NAM is closing up the weakness on this run. Wow that is interesting isn't it?

Texas ridge connects with Bermuda High ridge

[Talgrissett]

All the models are showing a easterly track. What is the conc. Of everyone that Irene hitting Little River, SC?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

NAM is closing up the weakness on this run. Wow that is interesting isn't it?

Texas ridge connects with Bermuda High ridge

Right across SFL and a second round on the pennisula if that ridge closes off.

[Vortex]

i think this is what the ukmet and gfdl were alluding too....

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I don't see how that could happen with all the models showing the weekness strong enough to pull it north east of south fla. Unless the high builds in even for the short term then I guess it would be possible.

The models have to deal with some percentage of random unpredictable changes. I agree central Cuba sounds a bit far west but wierd random things do happen. For example suppose a model predicts a track running up the Florida east coast. The close proximity to Hispaniola brings some dry air into the system weakening it and when it finally does get going a hurricane with small wind fields and a only a 15 mile wide eye forms.

Now the system is drawn NW toward a ridge weakness as it spins up over the warm waters of the Bahamas. The models shift west to adjust for the slower development THEN the system decides to go through an eye wall replacement cycle. A small tightly wound system is almost certain to do that. 6 to 12 hours after the EWRC begins and after staggering west 50 to 100 miles a new much larger eye forms and the system starts moving in a slightly different direction.

Hopefully the NHC will get lucky and the EWRC will occur 48 hours or more from landfall. Obviously just a single random EWRC could change the forecast from NC back to Miami or Miami to EGOM.

"Live long and prosper"

HMM,
Someting to think about. But any special reason a larger eye wall would cause it to change direction. Thought track was based on where the highs and lows are with in the steering pattern.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

All the models are showing a easterly track. What is the conc. Of everyone that Irene hitting Little River, SC?

Impossible to tell until Wednesday. Just keep to S2k and NHC. Like the scouts say...Be prepared.

[Vortex]

Landfall SE FL H+84



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[CrazyC83]

I see no reason to change the track right now, except I would slow it down in the 96-120 hour time frame sensing a possible breakdown of steering currents with the dying front.

[gatorcane]

South Florida, core winds go into Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties

[SouthFloridawx]

06Z Run @ 78 Hours



12Z Run @ 84 Hours

[Vortex]

consistancy.....