ATL: IRENE - Models

[Vortex]

what I'm concerned about is the synoptics...I don't use the NAM as a TC model but it performs very well with overall synoptics....

[Jevo]

All the models are showing a easterly track. What is the conc. Of everyone that Irene hitting Little River, SC?

I doubt even the most highly trained meteorologist in the world would dare to predict an exact landfall location even if every known model to man had a line directly to said location... If SC is in play its still 5 days out which is at the far edge of the forecast package.. I would say as long as you are North of the current Latitude of the storm stay alert..

Remember.. a Hurricane is not a dot on the map

[gatorcane]

what I'm concerned about is the synoptics...I don't use the NAM as a TC model but it performs very well with overall synoptics....

The GFDL and UKMET are even farther west then the NAM. So the NAM is not alone and backed up by very good models.

Of course the ECMWF (best model over the past three years) is east of Florida but it does not mean it is always right especially since the GFDL is in second.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Going out to get a Couple MRE's, Bottled water and 7.62 ammo is never a bad idea if you are in the cone. Its always a good idea to be prepared.

[Dean4Storms]

I think the models will swing back west some and I think the upper air analysis will lead to that. Strange that the NHC felt the need to point out the unchanging pressure analyzed in soundings above Bermuda. The models are off on the strength of the ridge and the GFDL, NAM and UKMET could be correct.

[chris_fit]

Huge shift EAST in the track, biggest shift thus far IMO

[chaser1]

what I'm concerned about is the synoptics...I don't use the NAM as a TC model but it performs very well with overall synoptics....

The GFDL and UKMET are even farther west then the NAM. So the NAM is not alone and backed up by very good models.

Of course the ECMWF (best model over the past three years) is east of Florida but it does not mean it is always right especially since the GFDL is in second.

....just posted this in the "wrong" forum ( sorry

Aric, I have to agree with you with regards to the digging trough, and its relationship to the larger mid-level vortex over East/Central Canada. A couple days ago, I was actually fearful of this very event that appears to be unfolding now. First of all, looking at the 06Z GFS and simillarly comparing the prior 06Z NAM and 12Z NAM that just came out ( "no NAM groans from the audiance, though not reliable for specific TC development etc., it is highly used regarding mid latitude upper air forecasting ), there just IS NO OTHER digging trough that I can see. The primary vortex is pulling the shortwave energy back up and cyclonically around itself. Furthermore I do not buy into the logic that even after having weakened the western extension of the large ridge presently driving Irene WNW, that a ample weakness will simply remain. August Climotology aside, a 24/30 hr. NAM 06Z/12Z( respectivly ) comparison, very easily depicts the western extension of the 500mb - 588 line having filled from what was only about 72W, to now extending westward to about 76W. Furthermore, 500mb winds ( off Vero Beach, Fl ) 24 hours out ( at 6Z ) were S.W., where the 12Z for the same time period now shows "north" of west, thus depicting the "Texas Death Ridge" appearing to extend eastward and much closer to bridging the W. Atlantic high. Ironically, I would more likely make a short term argument for a slight bit more NW motion in the "near term", however after about 24 hours, just cannot see any reason that would preclude Irene from slowing down (due to the somewhat weaker low to mid level ridge), but also would anticipate a bend back to about 280. Furthermore, I see absolutley no other component that would impact a motion change, and thus the weak and building ridge should continue to drive the deepening hurricane on this steady course right across Florida's longitude and right on into the Gulf. Due to increasing heights over the Southeast Conus from the Texas high expanding eastward, I could see a scenario for significant slow down ( maybe even a COL ) near or over Florida's longitude. I believe greatest threat exists anywhere from Vero Beach, southward to potentially south of Mainland Florida/Florida Straights. Given the fresh upper air soundings that I beleive are being taken today, I would anticipate the GFS ( and HRWF ) to show tonights 0Z models to show a more westward swing in their forecasts, with the TVCN to immediatly follow. If I were to be right, than might expect Florida "Watches" to go in effect daybreak Tuesdayquote="Aric Dunn"][quote="gatorcane"]Look at that trough digging folks on WV loop...look at the clouds diving down over the great lakes. Looks potent if you ask me.

I can't see how the Bermuda High is going to hold on with that kind of trough. It's been a troughy summer for the East Coast of the United States that is for sure.

Kudos to the ECMWF for sniffing this out days in advance. [/color]

[HurricaneWarning92]

yes people, theres not 1 but 3 models that have this take the western route. thats not "all of them" but it still requires attention.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Huge shift EAST in the track, biggest shift thus far IMO

Did yoU mean west and not east? Based on some of these models it could trend back to the west a bit.

[Jevo]

Huge shift EAST in the track, biggest shift thus far IMO

That is a large shift.. .... oh wait Lixion is writing the advisory...

Let's see if Stewart pulls a classic Stewart shift after an Avila forecast.. The only reason Im saying this is that the latest NAM run pulls the storm back West.. While I agree that the NAM is garbage with cyclone prediction, it has a pretty good track run for synoptic forecasting

[HurricaneWarning92]

Huge shift EAST in the track, biggest shift thus far IMO

Did yoU mean west and not east? Based on some of these models it could trend back to the west a bit.

Hes right. Shift east.

[SFLcane]

with a track like this no watches are needed across sfl...lets hope it stays that way.

[Evenstar]

Going out to get a Couple MRE's, Bottled water and 7.62 ammo is never a bad idea if you are in the cone. Its always a good idea to be prepared.

Thank you for officially scaring the Beelzebub out of me. I am a West Coast transplant to the East Coast and this hurricane stuff is scary (give me a massive earthquake any day). I wish someone would talk about this stuff at my meteorology-intelligence-level (i.e. about first grade level) and tell me what these models mean. Should I look at them as a whole and assume the truth lies somewhere in the middle of all that spaghetti? If this ridge everyone is speaking of (off the Atlantic I think) is weak, flat or strong what will it mean for the track? I can't decide if I should pack up the kid, the cat and the china or buy extra Captain Morgan's and watch the show from afar! Help a gal out here my friends!

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Huge shift EAST in the track, biggest shift thus far IMO

Did yoU mean west and not east? Based on some of these models it could trend back to the west a bit.

Hes right. Shift east.

Would that be based of of earlier model runs?

[viberama]

Going out to get a Couple MRE's, Bottled water and 7.62 ammo is never a bad idea if you are in the cone. Its always a good idea to be prepared.

Thank you for officially scaring the Beelzebub out of me. I am a West Coast transplant to the East Coast and this hurricane stuff is scary (give me a massive earthquake any day). I wish someone would talk about this stuff at my meteorology-intelligence-level (i.e. about first grade level) and tell me what these models mean. Should I look at them as a whole and assume the truth lies somewhere in the middle of all that spaghetti? If this ridge everyone is speaking of (off the Atlantic I think) is weak, flat or strong what will it mean for the track? I can't decide if I should pack up the kid, the cat and the china or buy extra Captain Morgan's and watch the show from afar! Help a gal out here my friends!

I would prepare and WATCH. No need to make any irrational decisions yet. Just keep watching Storm2k and prepare the best you can.

[SouthFloridawx]

With Tropical Storm force winds extending out 130-140 NM from the center to the Northwest on days 4 and 5... Tropical Storm watches will definitely be issued as it is currently forecasted.

[fci]

Huge shift EAST in the track, biggest shift thus far IMO

Listening to another Pro Met out there, I think the NHC has wanted to move the track East but the two stubborn models could not be ignored (nor should they).
However, as we get closer to the point where action has to be taken, they couldn't help but move the track to the right to prevent unwarranted preparation
Still....until the east shift verifies, everyone needs to still pay attention.

[SeminoleWind]

all i can say is lets hope the new NHC track is right although it would be bad for SC but even worse if it was to ride further west and south Florida is caught with very little warning.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Would that be based of of earlier model runs?

hmm maybe. idk. 3 models were showing the western track and they made a big shift...

[chris_fit]

new GFS should start rolling in 13 minutes....