ATL: IRENE - Models

[alch97]

I'm the first to admit that I don't know a thing about this, but is it me or does it look like it's heading more west in the last few frames?

Please correct me if i'm wrong.....

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Going out to get a Couple MRE's, Bottled water and 7.62 ammo is never a bad idea if you are in the cone. Its always a good idea to be prepared.

Thank you for officially scaring the Beelzebub out of me. I am a West Coast transplant to the East Coast and this hurricane stuff is scary (give me a massive earthquake any day). I wish someone would talk about this stuff at my meteorology-intelligence-level (i.e. about first grade level) and tell me what these models mean. Should I look at them as a whole and assume the truth lies somewhere in the middle of all that spaghetti? If this ridge everyone is speaking of (off the Atlantic I think) is weak, flat or strong what will it mean for the track? I can't decide if I should pack up the kid, the cat and the china or buy extra Captain Morgan's and watch the show from afar! Help a gal out here my friends!

Exactly what the last person said.


Look you just got to know that things do breakdown. Likely this wont affect any of us that bad. But being prepared NOW will help you out. Keep your eyes glued on Storm2k until Wednesday. The forums are filled with really smart people but nobody can predict where this storm is going to go. The models are too volatile to make any assumptions.

[Mouton]

Going out to get a Couple MRE's, Bottled water and 7.62 ammo is never a bad idea if you are in the cone. Its always a good idea to be prepared.

If I load up with any more ammo and this place goes up we may have a chance to determine the effects of a blast on TC's and whether theie paths or intensity can be altered

Still, the cone is the cone and since there will be GIV numbers later today, I think I will stay vigilent...already made our evac reservations and loaded up on gasoline for the generator and vehicles. Got the foodstuffs and water yesterday. Be prepared, always.

[MWatkins]

I'm the first to admit that I don't know a thing about this, but is it me or does it look like it's heading more west in the last few frames?

Please correct me if i'm wrong.....

First this doesn't belong in the models thread. This is a discussion item.

2nd, maybe, but the long term wobbles and even recon fixes show movement to the WNW. It's hard, without a distinct eye, to discern short term motion especially with lumpy cloud tops rotating around, and thus interpret short term movement with satellite imagery.

MW

[Evenstar]

Going out to get a Couple MRE's, Bottled water and 7.62 ammo is never a bad idea if you are in the cone. Its always a good idea to be prepared.

Thank you for officially scaring the Beelzebub out of me. I am a West Coast transplant to the East Coast and this hurricane stuff is scary (give me a massive earthquake any day). I wish someone would talk about this stuff at my meteorology-intelligence-level (i.e. about first grade level) and tell me what these models mean. Should I look at them as a whole and assume the truth lies somewhere in the middle of all that spaghetti? If this ridge everyone is speaking of (off the Atlantic I think) is weak, flat or strong what will it mean for the track? I can't decide if I should pack up the kid, the cat and the china or buy extra Captain Morgan's and watch the show from afar! Help a gal out here my friends!

Exactly what the last person said.


Look you just got to know that things do breakdown. Likely this wont affect any of us that bad. But being prepared NOW will help you out. Keep your eyes glued on Storm2k until Wednesday. The forums are filled with really smart people but nobody can predict where this storm is going to go. The models are too volatile to make any assumptions.

LOL. Gotcha. I'll chill, but I don't think I'll be leaving my computer alone for more than about 30 seconds at a time! (thanks for the kind replies)

[dixiebreeze]

I'm the first to admit that I don't know a thing about this, but is it me or does it look like it's heading more west in the last few frames?

Please correct me if i'm wrong.....

It does appear that way on IR, but that can be deceiving.

[shaggy]

Being an eastern NC resident my entire life I have seen this scenario play out a few times. The track always starts down around Florida somewhere and bends up the coast until it is finally threatening the NC/SC border area. This is by no way a forecast for that to happen because like Hugo showed us thats not always the case. I have also seen the bending continue until it becomes a clean miss off the coast(this happens more often than not) so until the G-IV data gets fully ingested i'm gonna remain vigilant but skeptical.

[chaser1]

Would that be based of of earlier model runs?

hmm maybe. idk. 3 models were showing the western track and they made a big shift...

Did a couple new models come out during the past few hours that I did not know about???

Last time I checked, all that has occured between this mornings 5:00am discussion and the 11:00am discussion, is that the 12Z NAM now shows a building ridge filling in ( starting in about 24 hours ) where earlier runs of the NAM left a weakness along the Southeast Conus. To my knowledge, the 12Z GFS has yet to run. Though I would not have assumed that Irene's forecasted track would have been immediately adjusted westward, I am not quite grasping the contrary, now showing a move to nudge the "Cone of Terror" eastward. Perhaps some of the 12Z GFDL, HWRF, etc models have come out but just not yet to the public??

[BensonTCwatcher]

Being an eastern NC resident my entire life I have seen this scenario play out a few times. The track always starts down around Florida somewhere and bends up the coast until it is finally threatening the NC/SC border area. This is by no way a forecast for that to happen because like Hugo showed us thats not always the case. I have also seen the bending continue until it becomes a clean miss off the coast(this happens more often than not) so until the G-IV data gets fully ingested i'm gonna remain vigilant but skeptical.

Agree more than a few, however It has been a good while since we had a possbile major at this approach to the East Coast and with this synoptic setup. At this point I think it's on low side of likely that this will miss the eastern coast. Eastern NC should be watching closely. We should have a much better fell once we can get upper air data in the models and wring out all this "land interaction" that isn't going to occurr. I'd also like to see a few runs properly intialized on GFDL etc.

[jhpigott]

new GFS should be rolling shortly . . .

[CrazyC83]

Being an eastern NC resident my entire life I have seen this scenario play out a few times. The track always starts down around Florida somewhere and bends up the coast until it is finally threatening the NC/SC border area. This is by no way a forecast for that to happen because like Hugo showed us thats not always the case. I have also seen the bending continue until it becomes a clean miss off the coast(this happens more often than not) so until the G-IV data gets fully ingested i'm gonna remain vigilant but skeptical.

Agree more than a few, however It has been a good while since we had a possbile major at this approach to the East Coast and with this synoptic setup. At this point I think it's on low side of likely that this will miss the eastern coast. Eastern NC should be watching closely. We should have a much better fell once we can get upper air data in the models and wring out all this "land interaction" that isn't going to occurr. I'd also like to see a few runs properly intialized on GFDL etc.

Agreed you should be seriously paying attention as:

1) You are in the cone

2) Even without a shift your way, you will likely end up in the right-front quadrant

[gatorcane]

There are several GFS ensembles models tightly clustered into SE Florida on a NW trajectory (must be building back the ridge). Just pointing that out, though many more are over the Bahamas...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[chris_fit]

And we are off... +6Hrs



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[chris_fit]

+12hrs



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[chaser1]

...as we await the 12Z GFS to continue to roll out....., does anyone have an idea pretty much what time the GFDL and HWRF come out?

[chris_fit]

+18hrs... moving WNW/



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[clfenwi]

...as we await the 12Z GFS to continue to roll out....., does anyone have an idea pretty much what time the GFDL and HWRF come out?

They start rolling out about 5 hours after their given time. I.E. the 12Z HRWRF starts rolling out around 17Z.

[chris_fit]

Ridge is clearly breaking down already....

[gatorcane]

Ridge there but narrow:

[chris_fit]

+24 hrs .. Ridge breaking down.... moving NW



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