ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 17:10Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 18

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 22nd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 19.3N 67.8W
Location: 129 miles (208 km) to the WNW (298°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 043 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
993mb (29.32 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 25.1°C (77.2°F) 110° (from the ESE) 66 knots (76 mph)
1000mb -58m (-190 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 629m (2,064 ft) 23.2°C (73.8°F) 21.6°C (70.9°F) 120° (from the ESE) 63 knots (72 mph)
850mb 1,365m (4,478 ft) 19.4°C (66.9°F) 18.5°C (65.3°F) 130° (from the SE) 62 knots (71 mph)
700mb 3,025m (9,925 ft) 13.6°C (56.5°F) 13.5°C (56.3°F) 125° (from the SE) 36 knots (41 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 16:58Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 045° (NE) from the eye center.

Splash Location: 19.36N 67.85W
Splash Time: 17:02Z

Release Location: 19.32N 67.79W View map)
Release Time: 16:58:29Z

Splash Location: 19.36N 67.85W (
Splash Time: 17:02:20Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 115° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 69 knots (79 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 125° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 56 knots (64 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 993mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 110° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 69 knots (79 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
993mb (Surface) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 25.1°C (77.2°F)
850mb 19.4°C (66.9°F) 18.5°C (65.3°F)
697mb 13.4°C (56.1°F) 13.4°C (56.1°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
993mb (Surface) 110° (from the ESE) 66 knots (76 mph)
989mb 115° (from the ESE) 62 knots (71 mph)
986mb 105° (from the ESE) 71 knots (82 mph)
981mb 110° (from the ESE) 69 knots (79 mph)
973mb 110° (from the ESE) 76 knots (87 mph)
967mb 110° (from the ESE) 75 knots (86 mph)
952mb 115° (from the ESE) 65 knots (75 mph)
910mb 120° (from the ESE) 59 knots (68 mph)
850mb 130° (from the SE) 62 knots (71 mph)
800mb 140° (from the SE) 53 knots (61 mph)
697mb 125° (from the SE) 35 knots (40 mph)


---



[Chris_in_Tampa]

[ozonepete]

Rain rate has been moderate and steady all morning; a sign of slow, steady intensification.

IMHO, she is not going to really get cranking for at least 24 hrs.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/nexsat/thumbs/region_size/CONUS/focus_regions/NW_Atlantic/Haiti/precip/geo_blended/20110822.1655.goes13.rain.nexsat_Haiti.0.jpg

I agree with you, G. Even though it will stay off of Hispaniola, that island will crimp it's low-level inflow until tomorrow afternoon or evening. After that, watch out!

[Patrick99]

Not convinced this misses Hispaniola. I think it makes a scraping landfall, and the storm gets knocked down a peg or two with implications on track. Looks like some dry air entrainment going on already.

[SNOW_JOKE]

Nevermind then I saw what everyone is seeing and that's the first thing which came to mind. recycling of the eyewall with another, but given its only CAT1 then probably not.

[Frank2]

I might be wrong, but are the LLC and MLC not stacked vertically or have even separated, with the LLC moving WNW and the MLC moving NW?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[Dave]

600
URNT15 KNHC 221720
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 42 20110822
171030 1844N 06748W 6967 03100 9980 +102 +074 244041 042 047 000 03
171100 1842N 06748W 6967 03106 9985 +101 +072 246040 040 045 000 00
171130 1841N 06747W 6969 03107 9997 +095 +074 243039 040 043 000 00
171200 1839N 06746W 6966 03113 0001 +095 +078 244038 038 042 000 03
171230 1838N 06745W 6969 03114 0005 +094 +083 243040 040 042 000 03
171300 1838N 06745W 6969 03114 0007 +095 +077 241041 041 041 000 00
171330 1835N 06743W 6967 03120 0013 +092 +083 240039 040 040 000 03
171400 1833N 06743W 6967 03125 0019 +090 //// 237037 038 039 002 01
171430 1831N 06742W 6967 03125 0017 +095 +088 234035 036 040 000 00
171500 1830N 06741W 6966 03130 0020 +092 //// 233037 037 042 002 01
171530 1828N 06740W 6967 03131 0023 +092 //// 233037 038 042 006 01
171600 1827N 06739W 6955 03147 //// +076 //// 235036 038 042 010 05
171630 1825N 06739W 6969 03131 0035 +085 //// 229033 034 042 004 01
171700 1824N 06738W 6967 03135 //// +071 //// 230033 033 041 004 01
171730 1822N 06737W 6966 03140 //// +074 //// 223032 032 040 003 01
171800 1821N 06736W 6967 03139 0046 +080 //// 219032 033 038 003 01
171830 1819N 06735W 6967 03139 0040 +086 //// 220032 032 035 000 01
171900 1818N 06735W 6969 03139 0038 +090 +085 220031 032 033 000 00
171930 1816N 06734W 6969 03139 0040 +090 +076 218030 031 034 000 03
172000 1815N 06733W 6967 03142 0043 +089 +074 218030 030 032 003 03
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

It's really hard to argue against the strong eastward model consensus at this point... but still so many unknowns. The next 18 or so hours will be very important. What does the Gulfstream find? How does Irene interact with Hispanola? Waht will the 00z models show? Still lots of questions. And the problem is, if for whatever reason the track does shift back to Florida, people aren't going to have enough time to prepare, because even though were on the edge of the 3 day cone, people are still not taking even preliminary action.

[x-y-no]

I might be wrong, but are the LLC and MLC not stacked vertically or have even separated, with the LLC moving WNW and the MLC moving NW?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

I don't see it - looks purely WNW to me.

[ConvergenceZone]

I might be wrong, but are the LLC and MLC not stacked vertically or have even separated, with the LLC moving WNW and the MLC moving NW?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

It's possible this has weakened quite a bit. It will be interesting to see if it gets knocked down to a tropical storm on the next advisory...Of course that doesn't mean it's still not going to be a major. It has a TON of time ahead of it.

[ozonepete]

I might be wrong, but are the LLC and MLC not stacked vertically or have even separated, with the LLC moving WNW and the MLC moving NW?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

I don't see that. Looks well stacked to me, though RECON will tell us for sure.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 221723
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 22/17:01:40Z
B. 19 deg 12 min N
067 deg 56 min W
C. 700 mb 2998 m
D. 63 kt
E. 045 deg 13 nm
F. 130 deg 58 kt
G. 044 deg 94 nm
H. 989 mb
I. 7 C / 3044 m
J. 15 C / 3051 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN SE-W
M. C22
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0409A IRENE OB 17
MAX FL WIND 58 KT NE QUAD 16:32:20Z
;

[Dave]

DECODED VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 17:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 17:01:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°12'N 67°56'W (19.2N 67.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 134 miles (216 km) to the WNW (294°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,998m (9,836ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 130° at 58kts (From the SE at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 94 nautical miles (108 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the southeast to the west
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:32:20Z

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 221723
XXAA 72177 99192 70679 04397 99989 27620 17011 00595 ///// /////
92597 24422 12515 85335 19803 12017 70004 16648 13504 88999 77999
31313 09608 81701
61616 AF302 0409A IRENE OB 19
62626 EYE SPL 1920N06794W 1706 MBL WND 16511 AEV 20802 DLM WND 11
512 989696 WL150 18511 084 REL 1919N06793W 170134 SPG 1920N06794W
170549 =
XXBB 72178 99192 70679 04397 00989 27620 11850 19803 22811 17607
33789 19250 44721 16857 55696 16445
21212 00989 17011 11966 18511 22948 15011 33935 13517 44896 12520
55877 12515 66850 12017 77801 08025 88774 05016 99757 05010 11745
31501 22696 12005
31313 09608 81701
61616 AF302 0409A IRENE OB 19
62626 EYE SPL 1920N06794W 1706 MBL WND 16511 AEV 20802 DLM WND 11
512 989696 WL150 18511 084 REL 1919N06793W 170134 SPG 1920N06794W
170549 =
;

[tolakram]

I'm trying hard to understand why people are questioning strength while recon is IN the system.



In addition, sat pics from the NHC site are usually 15 or more minutes behind live.

Check out the latest live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

and IR version: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE #19

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 17:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 19

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 22nd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 19.2N 67.9W
Location: 132 miles (213 km) to the WNW (294°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 043 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
989mb (29.21 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.6°C (81.7°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 170° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
1000mb -95m (-312 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 597m (1,959 ft) 24.4°C (75.9°F) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 125° (from the SE) 15 knots (17 mph)
850mb 1,335m (4,380 ft) 19.8°C (67.6°F) 19.5°C (67.1°F) 120° (from the ESE) 17 knots (20 mph)
700mb 3,004m (9,856 ft) 16.6°C (61.9°F) 11.8°C (53.2°F) 135° (from the SE) 4 knots (5 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:01Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 19.2N 67.94W
Splash Time: 17:06Z

Release Location: 19.19N 67.93W View map)
Release Time: 17:01:34Z

Splash Location: 19.2N 67.94W (
Splash Time: 17:05:49Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 165° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 11 knots (13 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 115° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 989mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 185° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 11 knots (13 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
989mb (Surface) 27.6°C (81.7°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F)
850mb 19.8°C (67.6°F) 19.5°C (67.1°F)
811mb 17.6°C (63.7°F) 16.9°C (62.4°F)
789mb 19.2°C (66.6°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F)
721mb 16.8°C (62.2°F) Approximately 10°C (50°F)
696mb 16.4°C (61.5°F) 11.9°C (53.4°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
989mb (Surface) 170° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
966mb 185° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
948mb 150° (from the SSE) 11 knots (13 mph)
935mb 135° (from the SE) 17 knots (20 mph)
896mb 125° (from the SE) 20 knots (23 mph)
877mb 125° (from the SE) 15 knots (17 mph)
850mb 120° (from the ESE) 17 knots (20 mph)
801mb 80° (from the E) 25 knots (29 mph)
774mb 50° (from the NE) 16 knots (18 mph)
757mb 50° (from the NE) 10 knots (12 mph)
745mb 315° (from the NW) 1 knots (1 mph)
696mb 120° (from the ESE) 5 knots (6 mph)


---

Dropsonde Diagram:



[Dave]

711
URNT15 KNHC 221730
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 43 20110822
172030 1813N 06732W 6967 03143 0047 +087 +071 221029 029 034 000 00
172100 1812N 06731W 6966 03147 0046 +089 +070 224029 029 034 000 03
172130 1810N 06731W 6967 03147 0047 +088 +078 224029 030 034 000 00
172200 1809N 06730W 6963 03150 0051 +088 +064 220030 031 033 000 00
172230 1807N 06729W 6969 03148 0056 +086 +070 221030 031 033 000 00
172300 1806N 06728W 6963 03158 0061 +083 +067 220031 032 032 000 00
172330 1804N 06728W 6969 03151 0064 +082 +071 219030 031 032 000 00
172400 1803N 06727W 6969 03152 0064 +082 +074 226031 031 032 000 00
172430 1801N 06726W 6967 03154 0065 +083 +074 225028 030 033 000 03
172500 1800N 06725W 6966 03158 0065 +085 +074 225027 027 034 000 00
172530 1758N 06724W 6969 03156 0063 +087 +070 223026 027 033 000 00
172600 1757N 06724W 6967 03160 0062 +090 +073 219025 025 033 000 00
172630 1757N 06724W 6967 03160 0064 +086 +073 221026 027 032 000 00
172700 1754N 06722W 6966 03159 0062 +090 +066 218028 029 031 000 03
172730 1753N 06720W 6944 03190 0064 +088 +063 213034 035 027 000 03
172800 1753N 06718W 6946 03187 0065 +088 +066 213034 035 029 000 00
172830 1753N 06716W 6948 03185 0064 +089 +062 213033 034 029 001 03
172900 1752N 06713W 6946 03186 0063 +091 +061 208033 034 029 000 03
172930 1752N 06711W 6947 03186 0059 +094 +058 205033 033 029 000 03
173000 1752N 06709W 6946 03187 0060 +092 +068 208034 035 030 000 00
$$
;

[ozonepete]

I'm trying hard to understand why people are questioning strength while recon is IN the system.

LOL, Mark that is pretty funny. We have a minute by minute reading of strength right now.

[ROCK]

I might be wrong, but are the LLC and MLC not stacked vertically or have even separated, with the LLC moving WNW and the MLC moving NW?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

yeah it looks tilted...