ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[BigB0882]

Everyone along the gulf is going to be fighting for this, especially if it remains weak. We all want the rain, haha.

[Macrocane]

Well GFDL is one of the favorite models of the NHC

So in suummary the 12z runs say (correct me if I'm wrong):
-CMC, NOGAPS and GFDL: We will see a tropical storm/hurricane in the GOM and it will make landfall near the Florida panhandle:
-HWRF, GFS: The system is going to move northeast and move into the Bahamas and then into the open ocean, the HWRF has a TS and the GFS possibly a depression or weak TS.
-UKM and ECMWF: They don't develop the system and have them as a weak low.

[wxman57]

The trouble we're seeing in the models is that each model develops the system at a different rate. Those that develop it quickly take it one way (NNE-NE). Those that develop it a little more slowly take it another direction (NW). And those that dissipate it after a few days take it another direction (toward FL). Question is, will it develop at all? How quickly/slowly? That will determine where it eventually tracks.

[SunnyThoughts]

Hi everybody, ready for another year. Please oh please let it rain let it rain let it rain! Hope everyone has their supplies ready to go. Good luck everybody and be careful.

[perk]

:uarrow: Well GFDL is one of the favorite models of the NHC

So in suummary the 12z runs say (correct me if I'm wrong):
-CMC, NOGAPS and GFDL: We will see a tropical storm/hurricane in the GOM and it will make landfall near the Florida panhandle:
-HWRF, GFS: The system is going to move northeast and move into the Bahamas and then into the open ocean, the HWRF has a TS and the GFS possibly a depression or weak TS.
-UKM and ECMWF: They don't develop the system and have them as a weak low.

I agree the GDFL is one of my favorite models also, but it's movement in the last couple of frames does'nt indiacte a Florida Panhandle landfall.

[Rgv20]

Oh dont get me wrong guys I love the GFDL to death do as a part its just that on invests I dont like to put to much attention to it.

[OuterBanker]

Just out of curoisity. Has the EPAC and Atlantic A storms ever been named on the same day?

[cycloneye]

Observations from Grand Cayman. They update.

[Dean4Storms]

12Z GFDL run looks like junk. No way it develops and deepens rapidly as it makes such an abrupt turn and increase in forward speed to the west in the Gulf. If it had 94L turning east into a trough I could see the acceleration of speed, but not that much to the west. Looks unrealistic is prolly a better term for June and in the Gulf.

[midnight8]

Sure wish there was a way this thing could scoot over toward the TX, LA state line. The ground is so dry hear that it is starting to crack here. A little TS would be nice. Got the generators ready for the Hurricane season this morning.

[Hurricanehink]

Just out of curoisity. Has the EPAC and Atlantic A storms ever been named on the same day?

The closest was 2008, when Alma (EPAC) was named on May 28th and Arthur (ATL) was named on the 31st. Alma crossed Central America into the western Caribbean and contributed to the formation of Arthur, so it's not ideal.

One year deserves note. In 1997, there was a system that developed into a subtropical storm on June 1st off of North Carolina, only a day before Andres formed in the EPAC off of Mexico. Had that happened today and it was operationally known to be a SS, it would have been named Ana.

The opposite happened in 1996, when there was a tropical storm was upgraded post-season (and would've been named Alma) in the EPAC. As it so happened, Arthur in the Atlantic was named on June 18 off the SE coast, and Alma in the EPAC on June 20 off of Mexico. This appears to be the closest, per your question.

When looking at just the first tropical storm of the season, the winner is 1999, when Arlene (ATL) was named on June 12th near Bermuda and Adrian (EPAC) was named on June 18th off of Mexico.

I checked back all the way to 1960, when naming started in the EPAC. Most years the Atlantic started either much later than the EPAC, which starts on May 15 for a reason, or the ATL got lucky and had a May storm (or April in 2003) that formed too far before the EPAC.

[SouthDadeFish]

The mid-level center is really starting to rotate south of Jamaica. What do yall think about the possibility of it "relling in" the low level center? Or perhaps it working down to the surface itself?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

[Macrocane]

I agree the GDFL is one of my favorite models also, but it's movement in the last couple of frames does'nt indiacte a Florida Panhandle landfall.

Oops! yeah, the GFDL doesn't show a florida panhandle landfall. I believe that the first 72 hours of the GFDL are not that unrealistic, even at 96 hours is very possible, beyond that it shows a kind of a weird track for a June system.

[Dean4Storms]

The mid-level center is really starting to rotate south of Jamaica. What do yall think about the possibility of it "relling in" the low level center? Or perhaps it working down to the surface itself?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

I think the MLC is moving WNW and is about to get on top of the stationary LLC if anything.

[cycloneye]

This buoy (42057) is just west of the LLC. Follow the pressure readings.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[wxman57]

LLC appears to be near 17N/80W now. Still well west of the convection. Convergence remains weak. Convection is dropping off steadily.

[SFLcane]

I concur this thing still has a ways to go before it becomes anything to get to concerned about. Right now the greatest threat is for locally heavy rains and flash floods for Jamaica & cuba. Whatever its going to do it better not take its time cause the window is slowly closing before it runs into some hostile upper level winds again.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm thinking D Max tonight might be able to get it over the hump, and we could see convection finally over the center.

[gatorcane]

Definitely is organizing. I say code red later on tonight.

I think a center may get going a bit more east than wxman is showing, under the convection.

Here we go gang....

[Dean4Storms]

I see that little naked swirl there wxman57, it moved wnw pretty quickly. Just not sure now that a LLC is not forming further east in the convection, it wouldn't take much.