WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

[StormingB81]

SO what do you think of the ECMWF run this morning saying it would disipate near tawain? If it doesnt weaken much and come up here wow...it would make songda i think look like a walk in the park

[StormingB81]

If the other storm continues to go west we could have an interesting little thing here...

[phwxenthusiast]

early ECMWF data showing a possible landfall in Southern Taiwan (up to hr 99)...

[Typhoon Hunter]

SO what do you think of the ECMWF run this morning saying it would disipate near tawain? If it doesnt weaken much and come up here wow...it would make songda i think look like a walk in the park

I want to see some sort of trend emerge on ECMWF before taking any single run seriously. My hunch is 00z will be slightly further east on this run ploughing through the islands and maybe threatening Okinawa. The last run was quite a westerly outlier compared to agency forecasts and other models, excluding UKMET which takes it into Luzon Strait but UKMET has been garbage all season!

EDIT:

early ECMWF data showing a possible landfall in Southern Taiwan (up to hr 99)...

Yikes just saw your post, damn that would not be good for Taiwan - as I guess ploughing in as a monster? Will check full run in 20 mins!

[oaba09]

looking at the latest movement it looks like it will miss PI for the main part..I am sure the ywill feel some conditions but looks liek the eye will miss them hopefully

Yup, it seems to be moving more northwards now so it should miss the NE tip if it doesn't change it's direction(good news for the people up north)...It has been cloudy since yesterday w/ weak to moderate winds. Surprisingly, it hasn't rained that much here in metro manila(only slight drizzles from time to time)...

[StormingB81]

JMA is out up to 105 Knots!

TY 1111 (NANMADOL)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 26 August 2011
<Analyses at 26/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Intense
Center position N17°10'(17.2°)
E123°35'(123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 27/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Intense
Center position of probability circle N19°00'(19.0°)
E122°40'(122.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 28/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Intense
Center position of probability circle N20°40'(20.7°)
E122°10'(122.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 29/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°50'(21.8°)
E121°55'(121.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area Wide 560km(300NM)

[phwxenthusiast]

EDIT:

early ECMWF data showing a possible landfall in Southern Taiwan (up to hr 99)...

Yikes just saw your post, damn that would not be good for Taiwan - as I guess ploughing in as a monster? Will check full run in 20 mins!

yup makes landfall in Central Taiwan at around 96hr... ECMWF actually shows an erratic movement from hr 84 to hour 96 as Nanmadol moves just east of Taiwan... kinda wobbling just offshore probably because of topographical effects--we've actually seen that to some typhoon in the past...

Talas, on the other hand, becomes a very big and strong typhoon but not as strong as Nanmadol...

btw, you can see the high-res EURO for yourself via Wunderground...:
just go to Nanmadol's page and click on "Wundermap" you can choose either the GFS or the ECMWF run... very latest and very detailed actually!!

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 17.2N 123.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 270600UTC 19.0N 122.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 280600UTC 20.7N 122.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 290600UTC 21.8N 121.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

[Chacor]

105 kt would suggest JMA are now at T7.0 as well (T7.0 = 107 kt on their Dvorak scale). Could see JTWC go to 140 at next warning as it's consensus T7.0.

[StormingB81]

ECMWF bring it into Tawain again..This weekend is going to be big and answer alot of questions on what path it will take because models go from tawain to south then east of Okinawa.....we shall see..

[Typhoon10]

Following on from my previous question, was asking James, why wouldnt Nanmadol come into SCS, what atmospheric conditions are driving it north towards Taiwan instead of its present track WNW?

[Typhoon Hunter]

btw, you can see the high-res EURO for yourself via Wunderground...:
just go to Nanmadol's page and click on "Wundermap" you can choose either the GFS or the ECMWF run... very latest and very detailed actually!!

Thanks for that awesome!

Another very bad run for Taiwan flooding wise. Trend emerging for a Taiwan hit? Eagerly awaiting JMA 5 day forecast track!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Following on from my previous question, was asking James, why wouldnt Nanmadol come into SCS, what atmospheric conditions are driving it north towards Taiwan instead of its present track WNW?

It's not heading WNW anymore, more N or NNW. It's in a weak steering environment with no ridge of high pressure north of it to steer into the SCS.

[phwxenthusiast]

no problem James!

Following on from my previous question, was asking James, why wouldnt Nanmadol come into SCS, what atmospheric conditions are driving it north towards Taiwan instead of its present track WNW?

there's a trough moving across Middle and Eastern China... this will weaken the Subtropical Ridge near the Northern Pacific (east of Japan)...
the continued westward movement was caused by the ridge being stronger than expected, this usually happens in the WPAC where we have less upper-air data coverage and also the absence of recon in the basin... it will probably keep moving NW-ward as some models suggest, but this will only bring it as far as west as Taiwan, not into SCS...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[dexterlabio]

Just passed by Bulacan in our trip a while ago, clouds are just dark but as I said it is unusually breezy and it just got windier when we drove further into the province (from Quezon City driving north towards Bocaue City, Bulacan.) So I had the idea that maybe the provinces farther north must already be feeling the effects of this typhoon. I can't use proper net access in my location so I couldn't check what's happening in other areas through Facebook (lol).

Also, I think PAGASA should have placed some areas in Central and Southern Luzon under storm warning signals especially in Bulacan.

[StormingB81]

I think by sunday we should know where this is going. either tawain for island hopping...it doesnt look good either way it goes..

[bexar]

This storm is much more interesting than that overrated Irene. a take on Cat. 5 at 5 PM?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dexterlabio]

There is something like a spell in the seas east of Luzon because storms ramped up big time upon passing over this year, pretty much like Songda and maybe Nock-ten (it was just a 40-kt TS when it quickly developed an eye and eventually became a typhoon as per JTWC).

[StormingB81]

JMA keeps it off the coast of tawain then brings it north northeast...gonna be a long weekend looking at updates

[Chacor]

That looks fantastic. No 06z ATCF update yet.