ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

[Dave]

If anyone has a faster connect to google earth go ahead...this is crazy today for me. Going to reboot again. All other programs working normally.

[RachelAnna]

We have Nate! Nate, please come to Texas and put all of our wildfires out. Pretty please?

Wouldn't that be the best thing EVER?! Doubt it'll happen, but we can hope, right?!

[Dean4Storms]

Bastardi.............Tweet

"Son of Lee threat to central Gulf coast late in weekend, Maria may be a problem for areas affected by Irene, at least to the Bahamas"

[Dean4Storms]

Thanks Wxguy1!!!

[Aric Dunn]

If anyone has a faster connect to google earth go ahead...this is crazy today for me. Going to reboot again. All other programs working normally.

I use the web site it works way faster. I can do some of them but not everything.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/

[BigA]

Two center passes, advisories initiated, and still no VDM? That's a bit unusual isn't it?

I believe (just an educated guess based on the recon reports) that the recon plane has found two vortices and is attempting to determine which is the dominant one.

[clfenwi]

Vortex Data Message

000
URNT12 KNHC 072131
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL962011
A. 07/20:37:10Z
B. 20 deg 18 min N
092 deg 36 min W
C. NA
D. 35 kt
E. 133 deg 91 nm
F. 243 deg 36 kt
G. 135 deg 48 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 24 C / 200 m
J. 25 C / 214 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF300 01IIA INVEST OB 08
MAX FL WIND 50 KT SW QUAD 19:17:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 26 C 136 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[craptacular]

Dave, my Google Earth (browser version) was going slow and having problems as well. I killed my browser and haven't brought GE back up.

URNT15 KNHC 072130
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 32 20110907
212030 2019N 09149W 9886 00138 //// +249 //// 187024 025 /// /// 05
212100 2021N 09149W 9880 00143 //// +249 //// 173024 025 /// /// 05
212130 2022N 09150W 9880 00143 //// +250 //// 162022 023 023 000 01
212200 2024N 09152W 9881 00143 //// +250 //// 156022 022 023 001 01
212230 2025N 09153W 9882 00141 //// +250 //// 158021 022 023 000 01
212300 2027N 09154W 9880 00142 //// +250 //// 161020 021 016 003 01
212330 2028N 09156W 9884 00139 //// +250 //// 162019 020 019 001 01
212400 2030N 09157W 9880 00142 //// +250 //// 162019 020 020 001 01
212430 2031N 09159W 9884 00139 //// +250 //// 163019 020 019 001 01
212500 2032N 09200W 9882 00139 //// +250 //// 162019 020 021 000 01
212530 2034N 09201W 9881 00140 //// +254 //// 167016 017 019 001 01
212600 2035N 09203W 9880 00141 //// +255 //// 170016 017 015 000 01
212630 2037N 09204W 9879 00141 //// +255 //// 170015 016 014 001 01
212700 2038N 09206W 9880 00139 //// +255 //// 170016 016 014 001 01
212730 2040N 09207W 9881 00138 //// +255 //// 169014 015 013 001 01
212800 2041N 09208W 9880 00139 //// +255 //// 172013 014 014 001 01
212830 2042N 09210W 9881 00137 //// +255 //// 170014 014 012 002 01
212900 2044N 09211W 9885 00132 //// +255 //// 171012 013 011 001 01
212930 2045N 09212W 9881 00136 //// +255 //// 164012 012 011 001 01
213000 2046N 09214W 9884 00133 //// +255 //// 158012 013 009 002 01

[cycloneye]

Two center passes, advisories initiated, and still no VDM? That's a bit unusual isn't it?

I believe (just an educated guess based on the recon reports) that the recon plane has found two vortices and is attempting to determine which is the dominant one.

There you go

000
URNT12 KNHC 072131
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL962011
A. 07/20:37:10Z
B. 20 deg 18 min N
092 deg 36 min W
C. NA
D. 35 kt
E. 133 deg 91 nm
F. 243 deg 36 kt
G. 135 deg 48 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 24 C / 200 m
J. 25 C / 214 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF300 01IIA INVEST OB 08
MAX FL WIND 50 KT SW QUAD 19:17:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 26 C 136 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR

[Aric Dunn]

[cycloneye]

Decoded VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 21:31Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate eighth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 20:37:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°18'N 92°36'W (20.3N 92.6W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 138 miles (223 km) to the WNW (283°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 91 nautical miles (105 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 243° at 36kts (From the WSW at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 200m (656ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 214m (702ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph) in the southwest quadrant at 19:17:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 26°C (79°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SE (136°) from the flight level center

[lonelymike]

Bastardi.............Tweet

"Son of Lee threat to central Gulf coast late in weekend, Maria may be a problem for areas affected by Irene, at least to the Bahamas"

Might want to read a page or so back about JB

[craptacular]

Last ob shows they may be climbing away ...

URNT15 KNHC 072140
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 33 20110907
213030 2048N 09215W 9879 00137 //// +255 //// 152013 013 010 001 01
213100 2049N 09217W 9878 00139 //// +255 //// 134014 015 014 001 01
213130 2051N 09218W 9877 00139 //// +255 //// 125016 017 011 003 01
213200 2052N 09219W 9879 00137 //// +255 //// 121019 020 012 004 05
213230 2054N 09220W 9880 00137 //// +255 //// 111021 021 /// /// 05
213300 2056N 09219W 9880 00139 //// +255 //// 101022 023 022 001 01
213330 2057N 09219W 9883 00135 //// +252 //// 102024 024 023 001 05
213400 2059N 09219W 9880 00138 //// +254 //// 098027 028 /// /// 05
213430 2100N 09220W 9871 00148 //// +257 //// 093027 027 025 001 05
213500 2101N 09222W 9888 00133 //// +259 //// 094026 027 027 000 01
213530 2101N 09224W 9874 00146 //// +257 //// 094028 028 026 002 01
213600 2102N 09226W 9884 00136 //// +259 //// 094027 028 028 000 01
213630 2103N 09229W 9882 00139 //// +252 //// 095028 029 028 004 01
213700 2103N 09231W 9878 00143 //// +256 //// 093029 030 032 003 01
213730 2104N 09233W 9842 00174 //// +255 //// 095030 031 028 001 05
213800 2105N 09235W 9841 00176 //// +256 //// 092031 032 029 001 05
213830 2105N 09235W 9841 00176 //// +256 //// 090030 031 /// /// 05
213900 2108N 09237W 9846 00174 //// +256 //// 091031 032 026 002 01
213930 2109N 09238W 9836 00183 //// +254 //// 088030 032 028 001 05
214000 2110N 09237W 9694 00312 //// +244 //// 094027 029 /// /// 05

[rockyman]

JB's latest tweet (11 minutes ago):

New depression soon to be Nate in southern gulf. Difficult forecast situation in 4 days for gulf coast

[AnnularCane]

Why is it taking so long for the graphics on the NHC site to be updated? Is recon still in there?

Hello Nate!

[Dave]

Had a windows update that was determined to come in, got that onboard, but GE is still running slow today. Read a couple articles about others having trouble with the 'new' 6.0 version being extremely slow for them also. Sometimes it's best not to fix what works. Going to see if I can find the older version of 5.0 later today.

[AJC3]

JB's latest tweet (11 minutes ago):

New depression soon to be Nate in southern gulf. Difficult forecast situation in 4 days for gulf coast

Sooner than he thinks. He tweeted that after the 5 PM package. He gets a pass though - after all, we've all made mistakes, right?

[craptacular]

Yup, on the way home.

URNT15 KNHC 072150
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 34 20110907
214030 2109N 09236W 9518 00479 //// +228 //// 093024 025 029 000 05
214100 2108N 09235W 8867 01103 //// +198 //// 089025 025 /// /// 05
214130 2106N 09234W 8520 01448 //// +179 //// 090023 024 027 001 05
214200 2106N 09233W 8136 01850 //// +162 //// 091024 024 /// /// 05
214230 2107N 09231W 7791 02218 //// +149 //// 101023 024 /// /// 05
214300 2108N 09231W 7480 02560 //// +137 //// 094021 023 /// /// 05
214330 2110N 09230W 7151 02941 //// +121 //// 094015 017 /// /// 05
214400 2111N 09229W 6912 03227 //// +102 //// 094011 013 /// /// 05
214430 2113N 09229W 6684 03516 //// +096 //// 103013 015 /// /// 05
214500 2114N 09228W 6484 03776 //// +085 //// 102016 017 /// /// 05
214530 2116N 09228W 6290 04027 //// +064 //// 106016 016 025 001 05
214600 2118N 09228W 6160 04197 //// +049 //// 111015 016 024 000 05
214630 2119N 09230W 6025 04381 //// +034 //// 109013 014 027 001 01
214700 2121N 09231W 5786 04686 //// +015 //// 119012 013 /// /// 05
214730 2122N 09233W 5573 05012 //// +002 //// 126009 010 /// /// 05
214800 2123N 09234W 5377 05294 0264 -012 //// 147009 010 029 000 05
214830 2125N 09236W 5313 05395 0269 -021 //// 148012 013 028 000 01
214900 2126N 09238W 5218 05533 0278 -026 //// 152014 015 028 000 01
214930 2127N 09239W 5107 05703 0287 -036 //// 158014 014 028 000 01
215000 2129N 09240W 5108 05700 0285 -041 //// 146012 014 028 000 01

Next mission currently scheduled for tomorrow afternoon, leaving at 10:30 AM CDT.

2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 08/1800Z
B. AFXXX 02IIA INVEST
C. 08/1530Z
D. 20.5N 90.7W
E. 08/1730Z TO 08/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Wonder if they will change plans now that it is a TS.

[Dean4Storms]

We were all caught a bit with Nate, didn't expect them to find 45mph winds down there.