ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

HWRF has a cat 8 for sfl...

The 12z HWRF has an 88kt storm for SFL, that's a Cat 2.

He was sarcastic

[SFLcane]

HWRF has a cat 8 for sfl...

The 12z HWRF has an 88kt storm for SFL, that's a Cat 2.

As we now the odds of that even coming close are VERY small with 30-50 kt winds aloft across the gulf due to upper level jet.

[Evil Jeremy]

HWRF has a cat 8 for sfl...

The 12z HWRF has an 88kt storm for SFL, that's a Cat 2.

He was sarcastic

lol, my bad.

[Vortex]

Hwrf looks reasonable based on current trends(organizing) forecasted synoptics, and climatology. IMO, Future Rina could pose a threat to SW/South FL late this week as a hurricane.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232024
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 29 20111023
201430 1604N 08147W 9879 00172 0074 +255 +228 124014 014 018 000 00
201500 1603N 08148W 9882 00169 0073 +255 +226 130013 013 018 000 00
201530 1601N 08150W 9878 00171 0072 +255 +221 127012 013 017 000 00
201600 1600N 08151W 9879 00170 0073 +255 +224 125012 013 017 000 00
201630 1559N 08152W 9880 00171 0074 +255 +223 121011 012 013 001 00
201700 1557N 08153W 9880 00173 0076 +255 +225 117009 010 013 000 00
201730 1556N 08155W 9881 00171 0075 +255 +226 110009 009 011 001 00
201800 1555N 08156W 9881 00171 0074 +255 +226 109006 007 013 000 03
201830 1553N 08157W 9888 00166 0075 +247 +232 348010 013 017 001 00
201900 1553N 08157W 9888 00166 0073 +244 +232 344014 015 016 001 00
201930 1550N 08158W 9881 00169 0073 +241 +230 339016 018 020 001 00
202000 1548N 08159W 9877 00173 0074 +239 +228 339018 019 019 000 00
202030 1546N 08200W 9880 00171 0075 +236 +228 337018 019 019 000 00
202100 1545N 08201W 9878 00177 0080 +235 +227 336019 020 020 000 00
202130 1543N 08201W 9878 00178 0081 +235 +225 334019 020 018 000 00
202200 1541N 08202W 9880 00177 0081 +235 +224 334020 021 020 001 00
202230 1540N 08203W 9879 00177 0083 +236 +224 330019 020 021 000 00
202300 1538N 08203W 9885 00175 0087 +222 //// 322019 021 020 006 01
202330 1536N 08204W 9878 00181 0086 +236 +219 323019 020 018 000 03
202400 1535N 08204W 9873 00183 0084 +233 +229 316018 019 /// /// 03
$$
;

[psyclone]

Hwrf looks reasonable based on current trends(organizing) forecasted synoptics, and climatology. IMO, Future Rina could pose a threat to SW/South FL late this week as a hurricane.

I don't think the hwrf has been reasonable all season. way too bullish on intensity on a consistent basis.

[cycloneye]

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 81.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[jlauderdal]

Hwrf looks reasonable based on current trends(organizing) forecasted synoptics, and climatology. IMO, Future Rina could pose a threat to SW/South FL late this week as a hurricane.

I don't think the hwrf has been reasonable all season. way too bullish on intensity on a consistent basis.

what season was it close to reliable, doesnt mean it wont be now but its a goofy model at best

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232034
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 30 20111023
202430 1534N 08203W 9877 00181 0085 +235 +225 310017 017 019 000 03
202500 1534N 08201W 9880 00178 0084 +235 +225 310016 017 019 000 00
202530 1534N 08159W 9880 00180 0085 +238 +229 311015 016 020 000 00
202600 1534N 08157W 9880 00180 0084 +243 +231 303012 014 018 000 00
202630 1534N 08155W 9885 00175 0084 +245 +230 293007 008 010 000 00
202700 1534N 08153W 9879 00181 0084 +245 +231 268006 006 009 001 00
202730 1534N 08152W 9878 00181 0083 +245 +227 235006 007 008 000 00
202800 1534N 08150W 9884 00175 0082 +245 +226 217008 008 008 000 00
202830 1534N 08148W 9875 00182 0081 +245 +229 229008 008 009 000 00
202900 1534N 08146W 9883 00175 0081 +245 +227 198009 010 010 000 00
202930 1534N 08144W 9877 00180 0082 +245 +226 193009 010 010 000 03
203000 1534N 08143W 9882 00175 0081 +245 +226 189010 010 008 000 00
203030 1534N 08143W 9882 00175 0081 +245 +227 193010 011 008 000 00
203100 1534N 08139W 9883 00173 0081 +245 +227 190012 012 009 001 00
203130 1534N 08137W 9877 00178 0080 +245 +226 187012 013 010 000 03
203200 1535N 08136W 9876 00178 0079 +245 +225 177014 014 /// /// 03
203230 1537N 08135W 9880 00173 0078 +247 +225 169014 014 /// /// 03
203300 1538N 08137W 9882 00173 0081 +248 +226 160011 012 009 001 00
203330 1539N 08138W 9880 00176 0080 +247 +230 155010 011 008 000 00
203400 1540N 08140W 9880 00177 0082 +247 +229 149011 011 008 000 00
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

Seems reasonable. A slight bend right could make a big difference in intensity.

[ozonepete]

Seems reasonable. A slight bend right could make a big difference in intensity.

Absolutely. The 5PM discussion notes the high uncertainty after day 3.

[cycloneye]

The most important part of discussion.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 335/5. THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST INCREASES GREATLY IN THE 3
TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME. THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN A FEW DAYS. CONVERSELY...THE
HWRF...ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE ABOVEMENTIONED
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...
AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL TRACK.

[ozonepete]

Odd that the discussion says 335/5 for motion but advisory says it's moving at 12mph. Which is it? Looks more like 12mph than 5 knots (6mph) to me.

[Extratropical94]

Advisories or bulletins go HERE

All advisories archieve at link below.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/RINA.shtml?

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE HAS ACQUIRED JUST
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT...
BASED ON A FEW BELIEVABLE 27 TO 28 KT SFMR WIND MEASUREMENTS. THE
DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATER BUT IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WITH DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
THE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOT FORECAST TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
HOSTILE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING A TROPICAL
STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 335/5. THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST INCREASES GREATLY IN THE 3
TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME. THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN A FEW DAYS. CONVERSELY...THE
HWRF...ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE ABOVEMENTIONED
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...
AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 15.9N 81.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 16.4N 82.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 16.8N 82.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 17.0N 83.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 17.1N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 17.3N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 17.7N 87.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 19.0N 88.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 81.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE NICARAGUA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE
NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232044
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 31 20111023
203430 1542N 08141W 9879 00180 0083 +245 +228 149011 011 009 000 00
203500 1543N 08142W 9879 00177 0081 +245 +227 147010 011 003 001 03
203530 1543N 08144W 9880 00176 0079 +245 +228 144009 010 009 000 00
203600 1543N 08146W 9878 00175 0078 +245 +229 153008 009 007 000 03
203630 1542N 08148W 9880 00175 0079 +246 +229 150007 007 008 000 00
203700 1542N 08149W 9879 00177 0079 +249 +230 167006 006 005 000 03
203730 1540N 08150W 9880 00173 0079 +250 +224 180005 006 009 000 00
203800 1539N 08152W 9879 00176 0078 +249 +228 176005 007 019 005 00
203830 1538N 08153W 9877 00178 0079 +246 +232 279004 005 012 001 00
203900 1537N 08154W 9878 00177 0080 +247 +231 312006 007 007 000 00
203930 1535N 08155W 9881 00175 0080 +244 +233 319011 013 011 001 00
204000 1534N 08156W 9884 00171 0079 +242 +229 319013 014 018 000 00
204030 1533N 08158W 9877 00180 0081 +238 +227 319016 016 017 000 00
204100 1532N 08159W 9877 00183 0085 +236 +224 324017 018 016 000 00
204130 1530N 08200W 9882 00176 0084 +239 +227 329016 017 015 000 00
204200 1529N 08202W 9877 00181 0085 +237 +226 333018 018 016 000 00
204230 1527N 08203W 9888 00176 0088 +236 +223 334018 019 017 000 00
204300 1526N 08205W 9881 00181 0089 +239 +218 334018 018 015 000 00
204330 1525N 08206W 9883 00181 0089 +240 +213 339017 017 015 000 00
204400 1523N 08208W 9882 00181 0088 +239 +215 337017 018 017 002 00
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232054
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 32 20111023
204430 1522N 08209W 9884 00177 0086 +238 +228 325018 019 023 001 00
204500 1520N 08211W 9888 00172 0086 +243 +223 323019 019 018 000 00
204530 1519N 08212W 9878 00182 0086 +242 +222 324019 019 017 000 00
204600 1518N 08214W 9881 00182 0088 +242 +221 326019 020 018 000 00
204630 1516N 08215W 9881 00182 0088 +243 +221 329020 021 019 000 00
204700 1515N 08217W 9881 00177 0085 +244 +220 333021 021 019 000 00
204730 1513N 08218W 9885 00175 0085 +245 +220 331021 021 018 000 00
204800 1512N 08219W 9893 00170 0086 +246 +218 330021 022 019 000 03
204830 1510N 08220W 9884 00172 0082 +245 +222 323020 021 019 000 00
204900 1509N 08221W 9880 00180 0084 +245 +220 317020 021 018 000 00
204930 1507N 08222W 9880 00181 0085 +237 +228 300023 025 024 002 00
205000 1506N 08223W 9873 00186 0084 +230 +225 303024 027 027 000 00
205030 1505N 08223W 9883 00180 0087 +226 //// 312027 027 026 002 05
205100 1503N 08224W 9876 00182 0084 +236 +222 309027 027 025 001 03
205130 1503N 08225W 9874 00186 0085 +237 +224 311026 027 029 001 00
205200 1502N 08227W 9882 00181 0086 +239 +228 301026 027 029 003 00
205230 1501N 08228W 9878 00181 0085 +239 +224 300026 027 028 001 00
205300 1500N 08229W 9880 00182 0088 +240 +222 302026 027 027 000 00
205330 1459N 08231W 9877 00186 0088 +240 +225 303027 028 027 000 00
205400 1458N 08232W 9881 00181 0088 +239 +223 300028 029 029 001 00
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232104
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 33 20111023
205430 1457N 08233W 9872 00191 0089 +233 +224 292030 031 031 000 03
205500 1456N 08234W 9870 00186 0084 +230 +221 290031 034 /// /// 03
205530 1455N 08233W 9877 00181 0084 +230 +216 290035 037 034 000 03
205600 1454N 08232W 9881 00176 0082 +231 +220 293035 036 037 000 03
205630 1453N 08230W 9877 00177 0080 +237 +221 296032 033 035 002 00
205700 1452N 08228W 9883 00173 0079 +240 +219 298030 031 034 002 00
205730 1451N 08227W 9883 00173 0080 +240 +222 301026 028 030 000 03
205800 1450N 08225W 9876 00178 0079 +238 +224 291024 026 027 000 00
205830 1448N 08224W 9878 00175 0077 +233 +225 283027 028 026 002 00
205900 1448N 08224W 9878 00175 0077 +232 +222 281030 030 030 001 03
205930 1446N 08221W 9876 00176 0076 +230 +222 279030 030 030 000 03
210000 1445N 08219W 9870 00182 0077 +231 +220 280030 031 030 000 03
210030 1445N 08217W 9881 00173 0080 +231 +221 281031 031 030 001 00
210100 1444N 08215W 9880 00176 0082 +230 +224 277030 030 032 000 00
210130 1443N 08213W 9881 00178 0086 +233 +224 274030 031 030 000 00
210200 1442N 08211W 9883 00178 0087 +235 +222 274030 031 030 000 03
210230 1442N 08209W 9881 00182 0088 +234 +222 276029 030 030 000 00
210300 1441N 08207W 9879 00184 0089 +234 +218 277029 030 030 000 03
210330 1440N 08205W 9873 00187 0089 +231 +220 278030 030 029 000 00
210400 1440N 08203W 9885 00178 0092 +234 +221 278031 031 030 001 03
$$
;

[wxman57]

Hwrf looks reasonable based on current trends(organizing) forecasted synoptics, and climatology. IMO, Future Rina could pose a threat to SW/South FL late this week as a hurricane.

I don't think the hwrf has been reasonable all season. way too bullish on intensity on a consistent basis.

Definitely agree with you there. The HWRF has been garbage all season.