ATL: IRENE - Models

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SeminoleWind
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#3421 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:06 am

ridge trying to slide on the 78hr
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#3422 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:07 am

The 12Z GFS would be catastrophic for the Bahamas.
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#3423 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:07 am

+84 - Well east of FL moving NNW / N

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#3424 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:07 am

Looks to be turning almost due north out to 78 hrs.
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#3425 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:08 am

that weakness is pretty narrow
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#3426 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:09 am

SeminoleWind wrote:that weakness is pretty narrow


Yeah that second trough was pretty weak. If Irene moves slower than anticipated and the second trough is that weak, I could easily see this scraping Florida. Florida is far from out of the woods. But let's not forget about the Bahamas, this is a very scary run for them.
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#3427 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:09 am

+96 - Waves Cya to FL

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#3428 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:10 am

is this more east or west of the last run?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3429 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:10 am

What I can see with this is a very close call between this getting taken north by the trough and stalling 200 miles east of Miami, the G-IV flight should narrow that down somewhat
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#3430 Postby pgoss11 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:11 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:is this more east or west of the last run?


Looks slightly east to me but I could be mistaken
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Re:

#3431 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:11 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:is this more east or west of the last run?


Further east.
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#3432 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:12 am

Wow, I really hope Irene doesn't slow down. This run made me far less convinced of a easterly track. That second trough is pretty lame.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3433 Postby storm4u » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:12 am

east by atleast 50 miles could be more
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#3434 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:13 am

+108hrs

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Re:

#3435 Postby clfenwi » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:14 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:is this more east or west of the last run?


Through 96h, I would say about 30 nm due east of the 06Z run.
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#3436 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:14 am

chris_fit wrote:+108hrs

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Look how zonal the flow is to the North!!! Any slowdown would allow the ridge to build in North of Irene.
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#3437 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:14 am

Well....Looks like my landfall point/thinking is going to change for sure....just too much evidence
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Re:

#3438 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:16 am

deltadog03 wrote:Well....Looks like my landfall point/thinking is going to change for sure....just too much evidence


Thinking E NC or recurve E of CONUS?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3439 Postby chaser1 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:16 am

hmmm, well I guess the G-IV data will either confirm the GFS, or surprise us and start bridging the ridges. Otherwise, will be watching any deviations on present course verses projected short to mid term forecast. I would anticipate NHC would likely be "right on" with regards to near term motion, however where things may get real interesting, is in about 54-60 hr's when the anticipated NNW motion will supposedly commence.
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#3440 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:16 am

If she doesn't make that dip to the WSW as she passes Hispaniola (as the GFDL says it will) -I think the GFS track is spot on... But we know how the GFDL is good at picking those 'quirks'
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