ATL: IRENE - Models

[HurricaneWarning92]

Isnt the HWRF the rightmost model usually? If so, thats pretty interesting.

[SouthFLTropics]

Crazy uncle HWRF trends west. Priceless.

Now to see what the GFDL does...

Yeah, and that's a little unnerving too since the HWRF generally has a right bias..Especially when blowing up the storm like it did.

BTW...It's 1:30PM...Do you know where your G-IV jet is???
I think they were supposed to be leaving Macdill right about now!

SFT

[clfenwi]

Stats from the 12Z HWRF Irene run ...forecast position for 12Z Saturday is about 50 miles south of the 06Z.

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 22

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -66.90 LAT: 18.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -67.90 LAT: 18.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 70.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -68.70 LAT: 19.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 75.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -69.50 LAT: 19.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -70.20 LAT: 19.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 975.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -70.90 LAT: 20.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 972.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -71.60 LAT: 20.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -72.50 LAT: 20.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -73.20 LAT: 21.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -73.80 LAT: 21.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 953.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -74.60 LAT: 22.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 947.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 93.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -75.20 LAT: 23.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 939.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 107.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -75.90 LAT: 24.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 938.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 100.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -76.50 LAT: 25.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 108.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -77.10 LAT: 26.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 110.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -77.60 LAT: 27.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 926.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 106.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -77.80 LAT: 28.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 926.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 110.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -78.20 LAT: 28.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 923.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 111.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -78.50 LAT: 29.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 109.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -79.00 LAT: 30.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 923.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 109.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -79.10 LAT: 31.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 114.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -79.50 LAT: 32.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 921.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 109.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

[chris_fit]

I think the GFDL went way west causing Allan's site to crash...

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah I mean Stewart has been around the block a few times lol.. the problem with the turn is that its just a weakness an not a trough digging all the way down to north florida like with emily or similar.. this trough is not going to dig half that far down. just far enough to create the weakness so no SW flow to pick up irene. its hard enough to get a hurricane to move with a large trough. even more so when its just a weakness. they of course turn but its gradual in most cases.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think the GFDL went way west causing Allan's site to crash...

Yeah, it's definitely not updating. Fine time for a glitch!!!

SFT

[Evil Jeremy]

This is a big case of computer models versus past experience and human observations. GFDL should start running soon.

[clfenwi]

Looks like the GFDL was run for Invest 98 first. Should see Irene output very shortly.

[ObsessedMiami]

This is a big case of computer models versus past experience and human observations. GFDL should start running soon.

Yeah, like Wargames and WOPR versus Professor Falken. My money is on the mets in Miami

[SouthFLTropics]

This is a big case of computer models versus past experience and human observations. GFDL should start running soon.

Yeah, like Wargames and WOPR versus Professor Falken. My money is on the mets in Miami

How about a nice game of chess? Tic Tac Toe anyone!

[Aric Dunn]

I can understand the models thinking this first trough is going to turn it. but its already lifting out and unless it starts now it wont and honestly like the 00z and 06z hwrf where it turns it NW to almost NNW by the time its straight north of hispaniola is just not right. the 12z nam seems to have the trough that is now lifting out actually lifting out and keep Irene on a more Wnw track. just think the models are turning too much with the first trough and not realizes the ridging will build back in after it lifts out briefly

[Evil Jeremy]

GFDL a go go

[daisy32]

Crazy uncle HWRF trends west. Priceless.

Now to see what the GFDL does...

Yeah, and that's a little unnerving too since the HWRF generally has a right bias..Especially when blowing up the storm like it did.

BTW...It's 1:30PM...Do you know where your G-IV jet is???
I think they were supposed to be leaving Macdill right about now!

SFT[/quote

I have been looking to see. We have some lightning in the area right now so it's getting pretty cloudy here at MaDill

[clfenwi]

12z GFDL forecast position for 12Z Saturday is about 40 miles east of the 06Z forecast. Final forecast point is roughly Lake City, FL.

HOUR: .0 LONG: -67.00 LAT: 18.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.19
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -68.23 LAT: 19.08 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.87
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -68.99 LAT: 19.17 MIN PRESS (hPa): 975.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.18
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -69.78 LAT: 19.35 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.66 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.15
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -70.64 LAT: 19.83 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.31 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.93
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -71.74 LAT: 20.23 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.66 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.05
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -72.90 LAT: 20.44 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.83
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -74.00 LAT: 20.59 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.21 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 78.93
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -74.94 LAT: 20.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 972.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.40
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -75.79 LAT: 21.37 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.75 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 84.90
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -76.73 LAT: 21.92 MIN PRESS (hPa): 955.45 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 94.11
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.66 LAT: 22.41 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.02 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.93
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -78.39 LAT: 23.07 MIN PRESS (hPa): 947.41 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):106.52
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -79.09 LAT: 23.81 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):115.74
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -79.50 LAT: 24.53 MIN PRESS (hPa): 926.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):126.96
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -80.07 LAT: 25.36 MIN PRESS (hPa): 921.08 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):132.55
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -80.71 LAT: 26.17 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.55 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):110.82
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -81.21 LAT: 26.87 MIN PRESS (hPa): 947.71 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.79
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -81.50 LAT: 27.59 MIN PRESS (hPa): 951.90 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.90
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -81.96 LAT: 28.31 MIN PRESS (hPa): 957.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.57
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -82.28 LAT: 29.17 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.28 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.56
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -82.39 LAT: 30.03 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.04

[Evil Jeremy]

18 hours, a little north of previous run:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL018.gif

[chris_fit]

GFDL @ 24hrs...




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Evil Jeremy]

36 hours: Ridge ridge ridge:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL036.gif

[gatorcane]

36 hours: Ridge ridge ridge:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL036.gif

ut oh...there is a good ridge there...

Don't know how it escapes without hitting South Florida

[chris_fit]

GFDL @ 24 hours...



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[SeminoleWind]

I can understand the models thinking this first trough is going to turn it. but its already lifting out and unless it starts now it wont and honestly like the 00z and 06z hwrf where it turns it NW to almost NNW by the time its straight north of hispaniola is just not right. the 12z nam seems to have the trough that is now lifting out actually lifting out and keep Irene on a more Wnw track. just think the models are turning too much with the first trough and not realizes the ridging will build back in after it lifts out briefly

Aric are you thinking a shift back toward the west in later models runs in respect to what you are saying?