ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[CronkPSU]

no, still cat 3 at landfall, the 2 pm position is after it made landfall

[supercane]

It means the plane will depart at 2315Z (7:15 pm AST) (Part C) and be in the system from around 2330Z-0600Z (7:45 pm-2 am AST) (Part E).

[CajunMama]

looks the same to me?

Nevermind, the graphic changed. Must have needed to refresh or something.

and this is why we have been asking (thanks to those who have been doing it). Here's what has been requested

Just a reminder that if you post an image, especially a time sensitive image, please upload it before posting it. Refresh yourself with this thread....

Reminder About Posting Images

Thanks and now back to watching Irene!

[Aric Dunn]

I think availa basically cut and pasted the 11am discussion except some minor changes.. lol

[quaqualita]

Thanks again! Sorry to be so persistent, but getting a bit nervous here and every single mile wobble to the north is super important for us in the next 6-10 hours.
Will try to post and update later about conditions here!

[T'Bonz]

The guidance is now in better agreement in turning
Irene northward along 78 or 79 degrees longitude.

They had better be right. I'm right around 80 (Fort Lauderdale). That's mighty close.

[CrazyC83]

So probably not even a major at landfall? Looks like the streak will continue.

It depends on how much it weakens between those two points. But a Cat 2 hurricane is still very dangerous and should not be taken lightly.

[ncweatherwizard]

12Z GFS based ensemble members show a majority of tracks taking the center right along the East Coast--close to the right side of the NHC cone. Expect the guidance to tighten up at 00Z. NHC will adjust by shifting right again and reminding not to focus on the exact track.

[Battlebrick]

So probably not even a major at landfall? Looks like the streak will continue.

It depends on how much it weakens between those two points. But a Cat 2 hurricane is still very dangerous and should not be taken lightly.

Ike.

[wjs3]

I think availa basically cut and pasted the 11am discussion except some minor changes.. lol

I agree. that was...interesting.

[Blown Away]

IMO, the NHC played it safe w/ the track wanting that upper air data. IMO, they could have curved that track more NE based on the 18z models.

[fci]

To give an indication of how far the track has been moved east, I have been using the "How Close Can It Get" tool from Storm Caribe (http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm) and have seen the track move about 120 miles east based on how close it would get to my location in Lake Worth, Florida

5 PM Sunday- 1.8 miles
11 PM Sunday- 35 miles
5 AM Monday- 50 miles
11 AM Monday- 116.8 miles
5 PM Monday- 121.4 miles

Just a point of reference to see how far it has moved to the east of at least one point in South Florida.

I highly recommend using this tool to everyone. We have used it for years to see just how close the center of storm was forecasted to be to us!

[eastcoastFL]

I am so confused. The discussion thread everyone is talking about models trending east and in the model thread all the talk is about them trending west??

[RL3AO]

I am so confused. The discussion thread everyone is talking about models trending east and in the model thread all the talk is about them trending west??

Welcome to storm2k.

[CrazyC83]

It still could go anywhere from the Florida west coast to a complete miss of the Southeast.

[SouthernBreeze]

For anyone wondering what the Military times 1800z, etc mean, heres a link to a great time converter:
http://stripersurf.com/time.html

[Nimbus]

They didn't label the 2 PM Tue position? That would be close to the deadline for giving South Florida residents 48 hour warnings for planning purposes. You can see a weakness in the water vapor imagery and by tomorrow afternoon we should have a better idea of how that is going to evolve. The recent modeling that is showing the ridge building back in isn't good news for those who were holding out for a recurve east of the Carolinas.

[fci]

For anyone wondering what the Military times 1800z, etc mean, heres a link to a great time converter:
http://stripersurf.com/time.html

Ok SouthernBreeze, so I am a bit dense.
Reading the chart you linked to; I live in Florida so I subtract 5 hours from the military time to get my local time.
18z = 13z or 1:00 PM my time.
Right????

[supercane]

Except it's currently daylight saving time so EDT is UTC-4. EST is UTC-5.

[MGC]

Don't bet your money on any model output at this juncture.....I recall back in 05 when the NHC called on the K storm to hit 200 miles east of where it actually did. I think the track will be a bit better defined once the upper air data gets injested into the models later. Models still have a north bias IMO. Irene is holding its own and should start intensifying at a faster clip once it gets away from Hispaniola. Plenty of warm water, shear looks low...MGC