ATL: IRENE - Models

[chris_fit]

And the final point... 126hrs...



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I wish the GFDL would 'clicked' with the other models

[Bocadude85]

You can see on the GFDL 98L run Irene just barely touching the east coast of Florida then turning NNE.

Nope has Irene making landfall in South Florida and brings her up the spine of the state.

[Canelaw99]

Yeah, really not enjoying THAT run of the GFDL, that's for sure! I, like many others, will not be comfortable until Irene is WELL beyond me. I'm very interested to see the model runs after the GIV data is in them. Hopefully we'll get better answers later tonight. I have a pit in my stomach at the thought of that gfdl lol oy!

[maxintensity]

GFDL shifts east run after run after run. Lets see what the 12z euro does. Its running now

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Don't many of the othe rmodels rely on the GFS model information to use as their own background to then run? So many are already set to favor the GFS synoptic data assumptions. When the GFS shifts, they then all follow suit.

So getting that G-IV data into the GFS tonight will help a whole bunch of the models get their synoptics settled down more accurately. We should know expected ridge strength and whether to expect the ridge to build back in following the lift out of the first front.

Hopefully also by tonight we'll know more about the track taken today and what impacts Hispanola will have on the system / how much weakening will occur, if any.

We should also have a better grip on the impact of the first front and whether it is pulling out without much impact on Irene or if it is really turning her early by causing a significant ridge breakdown.

Unfortunately, we'll need to wait another couple of days to know the strength and speed of the next approaching trough which is supposed to be the one to really create the big weakness in the ridge and allow the eventual northward turn and path forward.

[Crackbone]

Wow.. good thing GFDL is a big outlier. That scenario would be absolutely devastating.

lol it was just a few days ago when everyone was all on board saying the "outlier" gfdl which was western carrib was more likely than going up the east coast of florida.

Precisely.

I don't live anywhere near this, but if I did, i'd be on high alert. There's so many relatively minor things(Hispanola, etc) that could weaken this system just enough to keep it West of the current Global models.

I'd just hate to someone breathe a sigh of relief, only to look up 72 hrs later @ a Major and not be prepared.

[michaelder]

GFDL shifted east, but still showing SFL. Still going to wait until the Gulfstream data is in the models though before making any big decisions. A lot of uncertanity still.

Could not agree more. Live approx 50 miles north of West Palm. Although the model trend takes Emily to my east, I will have more confidence when the models include actual upper air data from the NOAA flight. NHC advisories at 11 pm will be key IMHO.

[Evil Jeremy]

GFDL shifted east, but still showing SFL. Still going to wait until the Gulfstream data is in the models though before making any big decisions. A lot of uncertanity still.

when does the gulfstream go ?

In about... negative 35 minutes.

[chris_fit]

Can someone post the EURO as it comes in? I'm Screenshotted out :-/

[Bocadude85]

GFDL shifts east run after run after run. Lets see what the 12z euro does. Its running now

The GFDL has been very consistent on bring Irene to Florida.

[MWatkins]

Looking at the GFDL output, if you wanted to see where Irene is trending vs. the forecast points below, you could track to see how far off the path Irene is (or isn't).

For example, from 12Z today, here are the milestones for the next 48 hours if you are looking for the latest GFDL to verify this time:

Monday, 8PM EDT: 19.2N 69.0W
Tuesday, 8AM EDT: 20.9N 70.6W
Wednesday 8AM EDT: 21.0N 75.0W

Note it's already at 19.3N and 68.1W as of 2PM EDT

Pretty simple signposts I think. For the GFDL to verify this would need to get to 76 west below 21 north.

Based on the current storm motion of approx 11 knots, it will make the west coordinate at 8PM EDT (should be at 69.2W at 8PM) which suggests a net motion of 270 to be close. At 290, I'd expect the 8PM point tonight to be:

19.6N 69.1W

Which will be north of the GFDL position.

Will be interesting to see if land interaction tugs the circulation southward even for a few hours. The 15Z advisory was around 295/300 in terms of motion, but the latest advisory is back to 290...

MW

[gatorcane]

I also want to point out that the 12Z GFDL's short-term track and interaction with Hispaniola looks very reasonable.

The reason why it hits South FL is because it just sees more ridging than the Euro and GFS.

This time, it is NOT bringing Irene over Hispaniola and it STILL hits South FL.....

I thought it was just because it was weakening Irene over Hispaniola but looks like that is not the case.

[Aric Dunn]

GFDL shifted east, but still showing SFL. Still going to wait until the Gulfstream data is in the models though before making any big decisions. A lot of uncertanity still.

when does the gulfstream go ?

In about... negative 35 minutes.

oh good so its flying already.

[clfenwi]

12Z UKMET. Model had been one of the western outliers right with the GFDL, but the forecast position for 00Z Saturday is ~200 miles northeast of the 00Z run's forecast. Final forecast point is just east of Charleston, SC.


HURRICANE IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 66.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092011

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 22.08.2011 18.8N 66.9W STRONG
00UTC 23.08.2011 19.9N 69.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.08.2011 20.8N 71.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2011 21.0N 73.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2011 21.7N 75.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2011 22.6N 76.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.08.2011 24.0N 78.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2011 25.7N 79.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2011 27.7N 79.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.08.2011 29.8N 79.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 27.08.2011 31.5N 80.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2011 32.7N 79.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 28.08.2011 34.6N 78.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

[gatorcane]

Euro 72 hours:

[ObsessedMiami]

Again, the storm by Hispanola. To dismiss a storm by saying "Point A" is out of the woods because a series of model runs miss it is not only foolishness but potentially deadly. Then again, to claim the sky is falling based on this latest GFDL is foolishness also. Just food for thought and that thought should be "CAUTION"

[chris_fit]

Can't see your images Gatorcane... can anyone else see them?

[underthwx]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_09.gif



latest.........Irene is getting bigger by the moment.....I hope everyone of you out there in her way have done what you need to do to stay safe....




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[dmbthestone]

Can't see your images Gatorcane... can anyone else see them?

Having issues as well.

[Evil Jeremy]

oh good so its flying already.

Unfortunatly as far as we can tell it's not, though it was scheduled to.