ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[weatherwindow]

GFDL brings a 921MB hurricane into South Florida on the 12Z.

Heads NNW up the spine of the peninsula.

The same GFDL that was forecasting a track south of Cuba this past weekend. Enough said...

But there was not center of circulation a couple of days ago...and it jumped north so you can discredit it there. Now we have a center of circulation it can initiate on.

I am not saying it will do what the GFDL says, but you can't ignore it.

The safe bet is to go with the reliable ECMWF and GFS models.

chris, despite the gfdl being an outlier for two days, the model still receives respect at the nhc. the nhc's respect for the model is the principal reason that the official forecast isnt even further east with the ecm, gfs, et al. i am sure that each forecaster takes a look to the left every model cycle and wonders if, just possibly, it may be right..........rich

[Jimsot]

To give an indication of how far the track has been moved east, I have been using the "How Close Can It Get" tool from Storm Caribe (http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm) and have seen the track move about 120 miles east based on how close it would get to my location in Lake Worth, Florida

5 PM Sunday- 1.8 miles
11 PM Sunday- 35 miles
5 AM Monday- 50 miles
11 AM Monday- 116.8 miles
5 PM Monday- 121.4 miles

Just a point of reference to see how far it has moved to the east of at least one point in South Florida.

I highly recommend using this tool to everyone. We have used it for years to see just how close the center of storm was forecasted to be to us!

We use it all the time here on Anguilla. Last August with Earl our numbers kept getting smaller and smaller. Yeah we got hit!

[HurricaneWarning92]

what is kind of interesting is that storm2k's graphic map shows the cone all the way in the EGOM while the NHC's cone is inland through parts of Southwest FL... In other words, Storm2k extends it a bit more.

[FireRat]

First off, this storm SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN LIGHTLY. It is the greatest threat to the U.S. since 2008, and to the east coast in several years. The models will fluctuate even more in the next 24 hours. By tomorrow this time we'll know for sure exactly who is going to be in the direct path of the storm. Florida is far from being out of the woods (GFDL still takes it straight to Miami on the 25th as of 5 PM), tomorrow will tell if this is true. The Carolinas (especially NC) will almost SURELY get hit by Irene and the risk for a major Hurricane is high....I'm thinking something along the line of Fran 1996 for them.

The streak on no US landfalls will be shattered unless a miracle occurs and the NHC FAILS BIG TIME forecasting this one....not likely given their solid track record. Intensity-wise I don't see why this shouldn't achieve anything less than CAT 3 before hitting the Carolinas. Complacency should be avoided at this stage of the game, it wouldn't be a smart thing to do. Wait until tomorrow afternoon to decide on what to do as the track forecast will be much better tuned. The general trend is east on the models lately...but not the synoptics yet. I am a student of meteorology and this is my honest opinion. Refer to NHC and the latest on TWC for life-or-death decisions as this storm nears the Southeast.

[KWT]

System looks good but its strengthening should be slowed somewhat by hispaniola for a little while anyway.

Quite cool that we FINALLY have a hurricane!!

My gut says the Carolinas iws good but the system has constantly been east of the track right from the start, so no reason why that can't continue now.

[sunnyday]

Local mets AND TWC are saying only possible trop storm winds for Thursday for SE fl. Not much, thank goodness.....

[sunnyday]

TWC mets keep saying "Don't let your guard down in S FL yet." So, when can we let the guard down? Tomorrow?

[KWT]

It still could go anywhere from the Florida west coast to a complete miss of the Southeast.

Yeah, as it happens I have a feeling the NHC track isn't that far off now, of course then again it could well just keep on tracking east of the track and throw all those forecasts out!

[Bocadude85]

TWC mets keep saying "Don't let your guard down in S FL yet." So, when can we let the guard down? Tomorrow?

Well you are now in the three day cone so I wouldnt be letting my guard down.

[FireRat]

TWC mets keep saying "Don't let your guard down in S FL yet." So, when can we let the guard down? Tomorrow?

tomorrow, Perhaps. (and I really hope we can)

Today, no way.

[ObsessedMiami]

TWC mets keep saying "Don't let your guard down in S FL yet." So, when can we let the guard down? Tomorrow?

When the storm passes your latitude.

[HurricaneRobert]

Irene is getting big like Floyd.

[KWT]

Irene is getting big like Floyd.

Yep the models are quite keen on blowing up Irene into a very large and powerful
hurricane, looking like a good solution as of the moment.

[wzrgirl1]

Looks kind of mushy right now (not a meteorological term - lol)...

Apparently the dry air coming off the mountains is putting a hurt on it, and it's slow motion might be due to it being in a COL prior to it encountering the trough, so perhaps that's one reason for it moving very slowly and this time...

Ironically (or not so) due to the COL and slow movement over the past 8 hours, it's undergoing almost similar weakening due to orographic effects, as if it had crossed the island...

Frank

What is "COL"?

Was this ever answered???? I am curious as well.

[ozonepete]

Satellite presentation is improving again with some hot towers over the center. The proximity to DR doesn't seem to be having detrimental effect so far. Also don't see any variation from 290 degrees heading.

[HenkL]

Dropsondes from last couple of hours:



Picture shows winds and temperature/dewpoint (in °C) at 500 hPa level.
The six uppermost data are from AF307 (mission 0509A), the others from NOAA9 (mission 0609A).

[supercane]

Looks kind of mushy right now (not a meteorological term - lol)...

Apparently the dry air coming off the mountains is putting a hurt on it, and it's slow motion might be due to it being in a COL prior to it encountering the trough, so perhaps that's one reason for it moving very slowly and this time...

Ironically (or not so) due to the COL and slow movement over the past 8 hours, it's undergoing almost similar weakening due to orographic effects, as if it had crossed the island...

Frank

What is "COL"?

Was this ever answered???? I am curious as well.

Yes, he answered it a few posts down:

That's weather's version of an interstitial area between highs and lows - kind of a neutral zone with very light or calm winds...

Or from the internet:
col   [kol; Fr. kawl] Show IPA
noun, plural cols  [kolz; Fr. kawl] Show IPA.
1. Physical Geography . a pass or depression in a mountain range or ridge.
2. Meteorology . the region of relatively low pressure between two anticyclones.

[Noah]

Hey guys... I have not been on here for a long time.. I guess because we have not had any hurricanes in my area in a while.
Should I assume Sarasota area is out of warning? I never saw a hurricane swing all the way east or west of its track.

[FireRat]

Looks kind of mushy right now (not a meteorological term - lol)...

Apparently the dry air coming off the mountains is putting a hurt on it, and it's slow motion might be due to it being in a COL prior to it encountering the trough, so perhaps that's one reason for it moving very slowly and this time...

Ironically (or not so) due to the COL and slow movement over the past 8 hours, it's undergoing almost similar weakening due to orographic effects, as if it had crossed the island...

Frank

What is "COL"?

Was this ever answered???? I am curious as well.

The COL is a region between two High Pressure systems where a measurable wind direction shift is absent, almost like a stagnation point where steering currents weaken considerably. This feature often precedes troughs and if the current trough doesn't pick up Irene (as it is forecast to occur), Irene will be forced west north west by the High building in until the next trough deepening curves the storm toward the Carolinas. I hope this helps a bit.

[KWT]

Satellite presentation is improving again with some hot towers over the center. The proximity to DR doesn't seem to be having detrimental effect so far. Also don't see any variation from 290 degrees heading.

Yeah presentation is really improving, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see some RI kick start in the next 12024hrs as it pulls away from Hispaniola.