ATL: IRENE - Models

[supercane]

00Z ECMWF (Euro) from Allan's site:
Day 0 Mon:

Day 1 Tue:

Day 2 Wed:

Day 3 Thu:

Day 4 Fri:

Day 5 Sat:

[storm4u]

why are so many people posting old maps on here refresh first people

[wxman57]

12Z Euro is well east of the NHC's track. Looks like it's hooking right as it nears the SC coast. Will probably show a NC landfall.

[Nimbus]

What is interesting with the GFDL is after hitting Miami it takes it (or so it looks) up the spine of the State with quite a large circulation.

The GFDL has this looking like the storm of the century. I don't think you can get those kinds of wind fields with such a small eye, but its a good reminder about not focusing on the exact track if Irene really starts to bomb out.

[chaser1]

Serious right? Keep hearing people making references to this model is farther east, or that one further west LOL, but the only updated model i've seen lately is the new 12Z GFDL that was recently posted here.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro is well east of the NHC's track. Looks like it's hooking right as it nears the SC coast. Will probably show a NC landfall.

No...it actually hooked left into the NC/SC border...crawling inland

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

So Euro heads slowly wnw for next 2 days, and then NW on Wednesday to Thursday, and then on Thursday to Friday is heading NNE, and almost due N Friday to Saturday.

It really disintegrates the ridge entirely and doesn't seem to consider the option of a build-back-in scenario of the ridge. It looks like it just goes away to the east along with this trough pulling out to the northeast.

[Brent]

[chris_fit]

I think the track will depend on what happens around Hispaniola, in 24-36 we will really see whether or not the GFDL has any merit left.

[Aric Dunn]

I keep trying.. but just cant seem to see why the models in about 24hrs to 36 turn NW ... unless the ridge does not build in behind this trough that is lifting out now. but when does that not happen... if not low pressure then there must be high pressure.. lol

[GCANE]

Wow, FIM has a new disclaimer on its site.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim

[mattpetre]

I remember a day in early September 2008 when we had all decided Hurricane Ike (at that time a Cat 4 in the Atlantic) was going to for sure be hitting the Florida coast somewhere. Yes, this was the last hurricane that hit the United States and we all know where it wound up. There was model consensus for Florida and then there wasn't a day later and the GFDL, NOGAPS and UKMET were leading the way on that one in the same general area of the ocean. I think the fact that two of those models are our western outliers should make us pay attention to the real threat that could still be posed to both Florida and/or the GOM if the setup is changed by things like weakening over Hispaniola or if the ridge builds more than currently expected... Just saying, please don't think these models always get things right, those that have been on here a long time know they can change drastically when it comes to anything past the 2 day forecast (on rare occasions even those have been off by large margins.)

I personally think the models are probably on target at this point, but I also am the idiot that keeps thinking this high pressure in TX will be gone by next week.

[storm4u]

scary!!! http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[SeminoleWind]

scary!!! http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

those Ensembles show one heck of a sharp turn there..

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

What is interesting with the GFDL is after hitting Miami it takes it (or so it looks) up the spine of the State with quite a large circulation.

The GFDL has this looking like the storm of the century. I don't think you can get those kinds of wind fields with such a small eye, but its a good reminder about not focusing on the exact track if Irene really starts to bomb out.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Christ. If that model verifies we would have landfall somewhere between Turkey point and Sounth Beach, the Western eyewall enters near Jewfish, the eastern edge not coming ashore till Port Everglades. Thats around 5.5 Million people - just about all of them getting the eyewall of a CAT5. Thank goodness its an outlier, though I think the NHC and most models are out to lunch and that ain't just -removed-. I don't see this Irene sucked into the weakness like that, nor the second trough doing it either.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Will the G-IV data tonight tell us whether or not to expect the building back ridge scenario or its none existence in the future or Irene?

-or is that still days away and the G-IV won't enlighten us and the models to that detail?

[Aric Dunn]

I guess we have 24 to 36 hours to wait... if its still heading more wnw by that time.. the models are going to shift back west. nothing else to do but watch her spin either over or by hispaniola.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Ut oh....the 12Z Euro has shifted west...scrapes SE Florida....

quote]


This is what makes this whole thing so fascinating. But let us never forget that a shift one way or another likely means that different people will lose their homes and possibly their lives. Still, our studying this can't hurt anyone, so don't feel guilty about being excited, just understand the gravity. This message is meant as much to myself as anyone else.

I did not know the Euro ran already ?

[fox13weather]

12Z Euro is well east of the NHC's track. Looks like it's hooking right as it nears the SC coast. Will probably show a NC landfall.

Or miss the CONUS all together

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

scary!!! http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

those Ensembles show one heck of a sharp turn there..

Who knows if this Eastward trend continues maybe the system will only directly impact Nova Scotia or maybe Newfoundland, if that.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.