WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

[phwxenthusiast]

latest Doppler image from PAGASA (06z)



anyway, could we see an EWRC soon??

[Chacor]

ATCF 06z: 135 kt. Most likely JTWC will follow at 135 which keeps this at cat 4. Luzon looks like it's being buffeted at the moment.

[Chacor]

JTWC agrees, 135 kt, but new forecast peak is 145 kt.

WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 17.2N 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 123.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.2N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.4N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.4N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.5N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.5N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 23.5N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 24.6N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 123.5E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED HIGHLY SYMMETRIC
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTLY INTO A 17 NM DIAMETER EYE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS BASED ON A UNIFIED PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
CELL TO THE NORTH AND EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE REMAINING
PERIPHERIES. STY 14W HAS BEGUN TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) SOUTHEAST
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY STEERING THE CYLONE WESTWARD. STY 14W SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT
GAINS LATITUDE INTO SLIGHTLY HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72 WHERE THE
MODELS FAN OUT WITH WBAR AS THE LEFTMOST AND GFS THE RIGHTMOST
OUTLIERS. THIS IS AN INDICATION OF POSSIBLE WEAK STEERING AFTER THE
SYSTEM CRESTS THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF THE STEERING NER. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS TOWARDS A NORTHEAST
RECURVATURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

[Typhoon Hunter]

This will certainly help rack up the ACE numbers for the Wpac. What a season so far!

[KWT]

Yeah I was thinking that myself TH, looks like its going to be another decent ACE maker, esp if it manages to miss Taiwan and takes the GFS track, will really push the WPAC ace higher.

[oaba09]

PAGASA's windspeed now up to 195 kph(around 105 kts)...

[Typhoon Hunter]

I've just gone through the latest model runs and they show a deeply disturbing outlook for Taiwan. UKMET, NOGAPS, CMC and ECMWF all stall this out for at least 3 days on or near Taiwan - that would cause catastrophic flooding and damage and likely be a record rain maker.

Not saying it's going to happen but it's the first hint of a trend we've seen in the models for a while now. GFS seems like eastern outlier right now.

[tim_in_ga]

I've just gone through the latest model runs and they show a deeply disturbing outlook for Taiwan. UKMET, NOGAPS, CMC and ECMWF all stall this out for at least 3 days on or near Taiwan - that would cause catastrophic flooding and damage and likely be a record rain maker.

Not saying it's going to happen but it's the first hint of a trend we've seen in the models for a while now. GFS seems like eastern outlier right now.

Yeah, that's not good for Taiwan's east coast. I was there earlier this year and it was looking pretty battered from past rains & landslides.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yeah, that's not good for Taiwan's east coast. I was there earlier this year and it was looking pretty battered from past rains & landslides.

Hi Tim!

Long time no see. Yeah Taiwan has had a very rough 3 years specifically with typhoon Sinlaku which obliterated the town of Lushan then the horrendous Morakot which killed over 500. I fear this current set up may spawn more chaos.

[KWT]

If that ECM is correct that is a realy scary set-up ,the rain would be a huge problem plus it looks like an intense TC in its own right at that point, so your going to have probably a 4/5 hitting into or stalling close to Taiwan and dumping all its rain.

[tim_in_ga]

Yeah, that's not good for Taiwan's east coast. I was there earlier this year and it was looking pretty battered from past rains & landslides.

Hi Tim!

Long time no see. Yeah Taiwan has had a very rough 3 years specifically with typhoon Sinlaku which obliterated the town of Lushan then the horrendous Morakot which killed over 500. I fear this current set up may spawn more chaos.

Hi James. I hope the tour buses plan ahead and stay off the east coast highway this time. We don't want another repeat of last year's tragedy. My wife & I were pretty tense driving through that area.

Stay safe out there!

[phwxenthusiast]

135kts isnt Cat 5 right?? i saw Mr Padua's site and it says its already a Cat 5.... Well the difference is just 1kph anyway but the significance of such an upgrade in SSHS is somewhat significant imo, hope he changes it...

[Chacor]

135 kt is Cat 4. The discrepancy comes about from trying to convert 135 kt to mph or kph.

135 kt ≈ 155.4 mph ≈ 250 kph.
The Cat 4 scale tops out at 135 kt, but at 155 mph and 249 kph.
Anything >155 mph and >249 km/h is cat 5. Therefore some sites will display 135 kt as being cat 5 even though it's a cat 4.

This is best explained here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/feedback/2011/sshws.php (note that this is no longer an active feedback survey run by the NHC).

NHC's assigned intensities in 5-kt increments are converted to other units in advisory products, and the converted intensities are also rounded to the nearest 5 mph or 5 kph. However, the current Category 4 range is problematic when a hurricane's intensity is 115 kt (132.3 mph). Although 115 kt falls within the Category 4 range, the equivalent wind speed in miles per hour rounds to 130 mph, which falls in the Category 3 range. In order to show the hurricane as Category 4 in both sets of units, NHC must incorrectly convert 115 kt to 135 mph in its advisory products. A similar problem occurs at the current category 4/5 boundary when 135 kt is converted to kph.

[KWT]

Frankly 135kts may as well be a category-5, its not technically but the winds are so close it makes no practical difference at all.

Track is worrying for Taiwan, lets hope it shifts eastwards.

[StormingB81]

Ugh the NOAA sites arnt working for me anyone else got sites i can watchthe radar loops of this storm..ir the IR or vis loops..thanks

[dexterlabio]

^sat visible loop http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/vsmtsatw.html hope that helps.

[KWT]

Wobbling back towards the NW in the last few hours, still looks mightly impressive and the eye isn't really changing all that much for now anyway.

Looks like lots of rain for Luzon, esp northern and eastern parts.

[StormingB81]

^sat visible loop http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/vsmtsatw.html hope that helps.

thats the one ive been tryimg its our internet they block sites...we just got jtwc

[Chacor]

PAGASA's windspeed now up to 195 kph(around 105 kts)...

They've also raised signal 4 (winds of 100 kt or greater) for Northern Cagayan.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Already reports of two people missing from the storm, sure more are to come sadly

MANILA, Philippines – Two fishermen have been reported missing as typhoon “Mina” bears down on the country.

The missing fishermen are from Baras, Catanduanes and La Union.

The 2 went missing after they were thrown off their boats due to rough seas.

National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council Executive Director Benito Ramos said they have yet to receive any reports of casualties due to Mina.

Ramos warned residents living near flood- and landslide-prone areas to be on alert. -- report from ANC