ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

GE works fine now....great....mission over! Welcome to my day.

[Dean4Storms]

AFD from Mobile, AL this afternoon on the models.....

.LONG TERM...[SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
NUMBERS BUT THERE IS A LOW WHICH CAME INTO THE PICTURE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. GUIDANCE HAS A POOR HANDLE ON THE
PATH OF THE FEATURE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL OUTPUTS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER TIME WITH FORECASTS PATH EACH MODEL HAS CALCULATED.
THE NAM...UK MET...AND GEM ARE BUNCHING TOGETHER ON SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. HOWEVER THE GFS MODEL DIFFERS WITH THE OTHERS IN THAT IT
IS GOING FOR BROWNSVILLE OR POINTS SOUTH. THE EURO HAS JUST COME ON
BOARD WITH THIS. WE WERE CONSIDERING WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IF A VORTEX
WAS BOGUSED BY NCEP INTO THE GFS IN THIS GYRE...AND IF THAT WOULD
KICK THE GFS INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE FIRST THREE. HARD TO SAY
DEFINITIVELY. THERE IS AN OPEN CELL CU FIELD ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE
SHOWING AN INFLOW. THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERED IN THEIR HANDLING OF AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WESTLANT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF. SO TO SUMMARIZE...THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE CALCULATING
THE LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ECMWF HAS IT REACHING
THE LA GULF COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ASSERTS A WEAK
TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING RIDGE PUSHING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE MEXICAN
COAST BETWEEN TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE. STAY TUNED...IT COULD BE A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

[Brent]

Why is it taking so long for the graphics on the NHC site to be updated? Is recon still in there?

Hello Nate!

Budget cuts...

Thankfully we have Weather Underground...

[HouTXmetro]

What a mess, no relief in site for Texans

[KWT]

Looks very close to the ECM track and strength.

I'm a touch surprised they've gone as strong as they have with Nate mind you, 75kts is pretty agressive for a first forecast, esp given there is that dry air not that far away...

However that being said the upper set-up is forecasted to pretty good IF it stays in the BoC so a hurricane is probably a good call given how much time it has...esp given Karl managed it in a similar area very rapidly...

[KWT]

Looks like pretty strong agreement on a bend to the west from the ensembles BUT also good agreement for very slow movement, upwelling could eventually become a problem for Nate if it takes that long to get itself in gear.

[RachelAnna]

What a mess, no relief in site for Texans

So frustrating to see the models going on either side of us, leaving us out of the opportunity for moisture. Don't want a hurricane, but my hope is that Nate travels a bit further up the Mexican coast so hopefully we can get some rain bands to help put out some of these fires...or at least help to prevent new ones from starting.

[PauleinHouston]

Looks like an ULL is at or about 23.5N/92.5W via WV imagery, almost due North of where they put the CoC. Not sure how strong it is, but will definitely help to keep dragging the dry air in from the N/NW.

[Blown Away]

BOC seems like it has been the most active and conducive place for cyclones in the Atlantic basin over the past few years.

[TYNI]

I see no circulation at all with this storm at the moment... just some scattered convection...

[Brent]

FAIL NHC

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.sh ... l#contents <Where Nate's path should be

[KWT]

GFS bends this storm SW and weakens it into a landfall.

Seems an unlikely solution IMO though to be fair not impossible either, I've seen a few storms in this area pull that trick.

[South Texas Storms]

GFS bends this storm SW and weakens it into a landfall.

Seems an unlikely solution IMO though to be fair not impossible either, I've seen a few storms in this area pull that trick.

Yeah KWT I think the GFS is too far south. I agree with the 12z Euro solution and the NHC forecast. I think it will come onshore near Tampico as a weak Category 1 hurricane.

-removed-: Come onshore near Brownsville (similar to Bret in 1999) and put out all of the TX wildfires.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[PauleinHouston]

I see no circulation at all with this storm at the moment... just some scattered convection...

No circulation? Look at the NHC satellite pages/Nate/RBG loop.

[KWT]

It just seems like the GFS is somewhat overdoing the developing upper ridge's influence on this system, I'd imagine a due west track like the NHC show would be a far more realisitic solution, looks a little on the fast side as well.

[KWT]

BOC seems like it has been the most active and conducive place for cyclones in the Atlantic basin over the past few years.

Yeah it seems to have been a fairly favourable area, usually is in generally La Nina conditions.

Dry air could be a problem, though the NHC seem to believe it won't end up getting too entrained into the circulation, but frankly its next to impossible to forecast that...

[Brent]

and finally...

[TYNI]

I see no circulation at all with this storm at the moment... just some scattered convection...

Welcome to the board, Stevie Wonder!

You know what I'm thinking, don't make me say it...

I have looked at visible, rgb et al... and I am not convinced this is a closed low... sorry...

[TYNI]

I see no circulation at all with this storm at the moment... just some scattered convection...

No circulation? Look at the NHC satellite pages/Nate/RBG loop.

...and just what do you think I was looking at?

[cycloneye]

With that forecast,Nate may produce plenty of ACE units ( I go with around 12)