ATL: IRENE - Models

[BigA]

wow... starting to look more and more like a big fat fish...
Let's hope! Lord let's hope!

Passing through the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico disqualified the fish designation, to say nothing of the Bahamas.

But missing the US does look more likely than yesterday. But again, I think it's doubtful. There is not enough to kick it eastward. Even the GFS ensembles shove it into southern New England.

[SouthDadeFish]

Is there really any synoptic set up that could cause one of those drastic shifts back west tords Florida or the EGOM?

In my opinion there a few. First Irene could slow down more than forecast allowing the troughs to pass her by without as much of an effect. Also the ridge to the NE could be stronger than currently modeled. Or Irene could interact with Hispaniola more than forecast and the weakening would send her on a more westward track. I currently don't see her getting as far west as the the Gulf though. Just my opinion here.

[StormClouds63]

If this were a mid-to-late September storm, recurve would definitely be more plausible ... can't rule it completely, but the strength of the ridge makes it highly unlikely.

[Aric Dunn]

sorry but some of those right angle turns the GFS spit out are absurd.. unless it stalls then move north.

[jabber]

Last runs concern me a bit. Living In Raleigh. With all the tall pines any winds over 50 create a lot of damage.

[shaggy]

Look how much of the shift the GFS Ensemble means have made to the east between 00Z and 12Z, and they are more tightly clustered at 12z.

00Z:
[img]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/00zatcfensinvest2.gif/img]

12Z:
[img]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/12zatcfensinvest2.gif[/mg]

notice how touchy those tracks are.. all that has to happen is Irene delay the turn by half a day or 100 miles or so then SE florida brush is back in it.. the tracks right now just see too far out there.. hopefully the gulfstream data will clear things up

Any guesses on what changes (if any) the NHC applies to the track at the 5:00 advisory? I'm guessing that they are done with the eastward shifts for now but I don't have all the model data to say one way or the other. What do you all think?

My money is on a slight eastward shift with the last plot being offshore just east of Myrtle beach. They can't ignore the earlier east shifts and the Euro is downright scary for eastern NC and they like that model so they will give it some weight.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Look how much of the shift the GFS Ensemble means have made to the east between 00Z and 12Z, and they are more tightly clustered at 12z.

00Z:
[img]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/00zatcfensinvest2.gif/img]

12Z:
[img]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/12zatcfensinvest2.gif[/mg]

notice how touchy those tracks are.. all that has to happen is Irene delay the turn by half a day or 100 miles or so then SE florida brush is back in it.. the tracks right now just see too far out there.. hopefully the gulfstream data will clear things up

Any guesses on what changes (if any) the NHC applies to the track at the 5:00 advisory? I'm guessing that they are done with the eastward shifts for now but I don't have all the model data to say one way or the other. What do you all think?

Think they have to leave it where it is...Its right on the HWRF GFS and EURO and GFDL and UKMET still west of that....Rest useless.. but they wont keep swinging...

[Aric Dunn]

They will probably shift it a little east but be well west of the consensus. most likely awaiting the upper air data for the 00z.


for what its worth.. the NAM is showing the trough lifting a little faster in the next 24 to 36 hours ... could be something to watch ..

[fci]

An early look at the 18Z NHC model guidance suite. UKMET now east of Florida. Only a couple of GFS ensemble means and the GFDL are into Florida right now...

Wasn't the GFDL one of the two holdouts that had an EGOM solution while all others were either SE FLA or east of the peninsula?

[bigGbear]

They will probably shift it a little east but be well west of the consensus. most likely awaiting the upper air data for the 00z.


for what its worth.. the NAM is showing the trough lifting a little faster in the next 24 to 36 hours ... could be something to watch ..

Aric - You have been a rock on Irene - every time I would see a trend I'd look up and see you had
already posted on it. Thanks for your insight!

[Weatherboy1]

Very sharp turn for sure ... especially for a storm in August this far south. You're used to seeing these kinds of very sharp shifts once you get those fall fronts/trofs coming through. Not saying it won't happen -- I can't argue with all of these models. Just surprised to see such a serious "right hook" being forecast

[AdamFirst]

An early look at the 18Z NHC model guidance suite. UKMET now east of Florida. Only a couple of GFS ensemble means and the GFDL are into Florida right now...

Wasn't the GFDL one of the two holdouts that had an EGOM solution while all others were either SE FLA or east of the peninsula?

yes, the holdouts were the GFDL and the UKMET.

UKMET, while east now, is still west of the model consensus.

[hurricanefloyd5]

They will probably shift it a little east but be well west of the consensus. most likely awaiting the upper air data for the 00z.


for what its worth.. the NAM is showing the trough lifting a little faster in the next 24 to 36 hours ... could be something to watch ..

Aric - You have been a rock on Irene - every time I would see a trend I'd look up and see you had
already posted on it. Thanks for your insight!

aric what dose this mean?

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow! Perhaps I was completely wrong saying that this probably wouldn't recurve out to sea...Maybe the FoxWeather Met here on the board is on to something.... Looking more and
more like an increased Recurve out to sea possibility...

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM, 48 hours:



Steering at 700MB:

[linkerweather]

They will probably shift it a little east but be well west of the consensus. most likely awaiting the upper air data for the 00z.


for what its worth.. the NAM is showing the trough lifting a little faster in the next 24 to 36 hours ... could be something to watch ..

Very interesting, the NAM indicates the ridge forcing Irene west for about 24 hours before a subtle NW turn...

As an aside, the EURO ensembles are all over the place with many differing solutions. Having some more solid upper air data chunked into many model runs over the next 24 hours would be very helpful.

[Lowpressure]

Wow! Perhaps I was completely wrong saying that this probably wouldn't recurve out to sea...Maybe the FoxWeather Met here on the board is on to something.... Looking more and
more like an increased Recurve out to sea possibility...

Looks like a Carolina hit to me, based on that model graphic.

[fci]

sorry but some of those right angle turns the GFS spit out are absurd.. unless it stalls then move north.

Same thing with Frances.
I remember that they had a sharp right turn (really even more severe than the one forecast for Irene) and Accuweather and others had the storm coming ashore up in Vero Beach.
Derek Ortt was the one lone wolf who kept saying that he thought the turn was not going to happen and couldn't happen the way it was being portrayed.
Derek was right....

That's why, even though I am pretty confident that we are in the clear, I monitor closely until the "anticipated" solution actually occurs. I've been loud about us being pretty safe all day, but I am still here until it happens!!!!

[gatorcane]

They will probably shift it a little east but be well west of the consensus. most likely awaiting the upper air data for the 00z.


for what its worth.. the NAM is showing the trough lifting a little faster in the next 24 to 36 hours ... could be something to watch ..

Very interesting, the NAM indicates the ridge forcing Irene west for about 24 hours before a subtle NW turn...

As an aside, the EURO ensembles are all over the place with many differing solutions. Having some more solid upper air data chunked into many model runs over the next 24 hours would be very helpful.

Are you referring to the 12Z Euro ensembles as I have not seen that they have come out yet?

[Tampa_God]

How confident is everyone that the ridge will let up to allow Irene to recurve so much?