linkerweather wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:They will probably shift it a little east but be well west of the consensus. most likely awaiting the upper air data for the 00z.
for what its worth.. the NAM is showing the trough lifting a little faster in the next 24 to 36 hours ... could be something to watch ..
Very interesting, the NAM indicates the ridge forcing Irene west for about 24 hours before a subtle NW turn...
As an aside, the EURO ensembles are all over the place with many differing solutions. Having some more solid upper air data chunked into many model runs over the next 24 hours would be very helpful.
lets not all forget this tid bit from this mornings discussion ...
"WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS
THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW
OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS
AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST."
I think the models do not know how to handle such a thing. and maybe to quick to turn.
