ATL: IRENE - Models

[sjmballer]

good evening s2k members ...i also recognized nam trending back west...i hope this is not a stupid question... but how long will the high pressure remain over texas

[pcolaman]

other than the obvious why does the GFDL(superior hurricane model) and NAM(excellent with synoptics) force Irene into FL while the others have a sharp curve east???? Maybe someone with abit more backround than myself could share??? Thx

well im not the best with models compared to some. but the GFDL could have a better handle on what Stewart was talking about in the 5am discussion. the GFDL has much better resolution than the GFS and the global models which have a hard time with smaller features.

Thanks for that Aric Dunn . I also thought that the nam handled the ridges and the troughs better than the gfs .

[Aric Dunn]

Right now the NAM is an outlier and so is the GFDL. I still expect a SC/NC impact. Not ruling out a complete offshore track as the 12z GFS almost accomplished.

well if the NAM has some sounding data in it.. and it shifted west .. the 18z gfs should as well.

But why does the NHC seem to have increasing confidence in model agreement that will take the storm up the current forecasted track? I keep hearing about this model and that model shifting west but the NHC's track is holding steady and/or shifting east along with the 'model concensus'.

The 18z models will have New upper data in them. that may or may not change them. NHC really did not move the cone this time either they are still on the far west side of the guidance and are still saying its too early to tell is SF is out of the woods. confidence is not very good still even though its a little more improved they are just waiting for all the data to be assimilated into the 18z an especially the 00z models

[dmbthestone]

The 00z models come out around midnight est correct? Are these the models you guys are most eager to see?

[Aric Dunn]

The 00z models come out around midnight est correct? Are these the models you guys are most eager to see?

yes. but the 18z guidance will have some of the data in them as well. so they should give a good hint as to what the 00z guidance will do .

[ncweatherwizard]

other than the obvious why does the GFDL(superior hurricane model) and NAM(excellent with synoptics) force Irene into FL while the others have a sharp curve east???? Maybe someone with abit more backround than myself could share??? Thx

Yeah the NAM has stronger 500 mb ridging over the western Atlantic which is similar to the GFDL. The NAM is a mesoscale model and the GFDL is very high in resolution - are they seeing something the globals can't?

They're not seeing anything special. The NAM also keeps Irene pretty weak, which helps to explain the leftward bias. Be weary of the GFDL track when we start dealing with steering patterns in the subtropics and mid-latitudes. It's intended as a tropical model. The global models will give a better picture of the large-scale steering that will determine when and how much Irene turns.

[PTrackerLA]

The NAM will just burn you in the tropics, I'm sticking to the GFS and Euro.

[fci]

Right now the NAM is an outlier and so is the GFDL. I still expect a SC/NC impact. Not ruling out a complete offshore track as the 12z GFS almost accomplished.

But why does the NHC seem to have increasing confidence in model agreement that will take the storm up the current forecasted track? I keep hearing about this model and that model shifting west but the NHC's track is holding steady and/or shifting east along with the 'model concensus'.

The 18z models will have New upper data in them. that may or may not change them. NHC really did not move the cone this time either they are still on the far west side of the guidance and are still saying its too early to tell is SF is out of the woods. confidence is not very good still even though its a little more improved they are just waiting for all the data to be assimilated into the 18z an especially the 00z models

Wow, it is all in how one chooses to interpret words.

I read the discussion and my take away was not the same as yours that it was "saying its too early to tell is SF is out of the woods"

I took what they said "Although it is still too early to be certain...the guidance trend continues to lessens the threat to South Florida" as meaning that we are just about out of the woods.

Either way, as stated many times; I don't relax until the storm has passed me.

[clfenwi]

Data dump stats for the 18Z runs indicate 18 dropsondes got into the NCEP models. That's probably around 1/4 to 1/3 of the dropsondes that will be dropped by the G-IV and WC-130 missions. Balance will be in the 00Z runs.

[storm4u]

18z gfs has initialized

[KWT]

Quite funny how the GFS and the ECM have switched around from thier 00z run in that the 12z GFS looks a little east of the ECM.

12z GFS looks a little too far east on that run.

[AdamFirst]

18z model data includes the upper air sounding from the 15 different weather stations requested by the NHC.

[Evil Jeremy]

What is the (now suddenly more important) 18z GFS showing?

[northtxboy]

good evening s2k members ...i also recognized nam trending back west...i hope this is not a stupid question... but how long will the high pressure remain over texas

FOREVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Rgv20]

From the NHC's 5pm discussion..

There is
more confidence in the forecast since most of the track models...
with the exception of the GFDL...have now followed the lead of the
ECMWF model.

More often than not ECMWF would lead you to the right path...

[leaf blower]

I think this is todays 18z- correct me if i'm wrong..

T+36..




T +48

[KWT]

Yeah, still the ECM itself has had its fair share of shifts in the last 2 days, though does seem to have settled on a more easterly solution into the Carolinas now.

[blazess556]

18z gfs is coming further west than 12z gfs.

[x-y-no]

18z gfs is coming further west than 12z gfs.

Yes, a little bit faster, and a tad to the left. Ridging looks very similar, though, so it may make the turn near the same place.

[storm4u]

seems faster