ATL: IRENE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2014
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3721 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:03 pm

wasn't expecting faster...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#3722 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:04 pm

At 57 hours, still slightly ahead and left of 12Z - ridging looks a tiny bit stronger than 12z but questionable if it's enough to make much track difference.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3723 Postby Jevo » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:05 pm

Kory wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Kory wrote:As the models continue to shift eastward, I expect the forecast track to be shifted slightly more east. As I called it a few days ago, it is forecasted to turn north, east of Florida.


At this point, there might be a chance it might escape the Southeast completely. How is the ridge supposed to hold up farther north though? Any chance it could get pushed into the Northeast?

No, I expect Irene to erode the ridge a bit more since she will be pushing category 2/3 strength by Thursday and Friday. I don't see a northeast US direct landfall, but a recurve just offshore of North Carolina is possible, but not likely.


Cat 5 storms create their own enviroments.. A Cat 2/3 is not going to break down a strong high pressure ridge.. there are physics in play thet nullify your reasoning As a friendly tip you may want to think about using a disclaimer if youre going to post forecast and landfall thoughts before a big mean admin gives you the evil eye
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
storm4u
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 651
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 7:26 am
Location: agawam, ma
Contact:
Contact storm4u

#3724 Postby storm4u » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:06 pm

a little to the west of 12z also
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
umguy
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 41
Age: 47
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 1:48 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3725 Postby umguy » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:07 pm

From the +54 hour point it will have to make a pretty hard turn to keep pace with east models.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SeminoleWind
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 359
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:37 pm
Location: Lake County Florida

#3726 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:07 pm

72 hr looks a little closer to sfl but still should turn in next image
0 likes   
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
storm4u
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 651
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 7:26 am
Location: agawam, ma
Contact:
Contact storm4u

#3727 Postby storm4u » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:08 pm

72 hr faster and more west
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3728 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:08 pm

@72 hours... still safe way away from FL to the east

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3729 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:09 pm

@84 hrs...

Looks a little closer to FL than previous runs

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3730 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:11 pm

@90 hrs...

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#3731 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:11 pm

75 hours, looks like nearly a degree WSW of the 12z ... ridging still ever so slightly stronger.

Western Bahamas.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3732 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:12 pm

96hrs...

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
StormClouds63
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 583
Age: 62
Joined: Tue May 13, 2008 11:56 am
Location: Southwest Louisiana

#3733 Postby StormClouds63 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:13 pm

At 90 hours, the ridges close the gap.
0 likes   
Top
storm4u
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 651
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 7:26 am
Location: agawam, ma
Contact:
Contact storm4u

#3734 Postby storm4u » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:14 pm

pretty close to 12z maybe a tad faster and a tad to the west but not much has changed
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4230
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3735 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:14 pm

Looks like maybe SC this run.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#3736 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:14 pm

W shift with some of the gulfstream data. Let's see the 00z with all the data though.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3737 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:15 pm

102hrs...

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#3738 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:15 pm

It is slightly further west but by a fairly small distance really on the grand scale of things.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3739 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:15 pm

108hrs...

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

Re:

#3740 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:16 pm

KWT wrote:It is slightly further west but by a fairly small distance really on the grand scale of things.


Huge difference.. means difference between OBX and SC
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests