ATL: IRENE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
storm4u
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 651
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 7:26 am
Location: agawam, ma
Contact:
Contact storm4u

Re:

#3741 Postby storm4u » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:17 pm

west shift but its only slight wont make much of a difference

Evil Jeremy wrote:W shift with some of the gulfstream data. Let's see the 00z with all the data though.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3742 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:18 pm

114hrs....

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3743 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:20 pm

120hrs...

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#3744 Postby artist » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:20 pm

Question - now when I do a zoom of this off the Palm Beach coast I see the outer yellow ring is just making it off shore. What is that outer yellow ring? :?: 8-)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3745 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:21 pm

126hrs....

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3746 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:22 pm

132hrs....

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3747 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:24 pm

138hrs....


Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
caneseddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1172
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:31 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

Re:

#3748 Postby caneseddy » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:24 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:W shift with some of the gulfstream data. Let's see the 00z with all the data though.


I don't think this run has the gulfstream data, just the soundings from the various weather stations which NWS requested; the 00z runs will tell the story, IMO
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3749 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:26 pm

144hrs...


Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2014
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3750 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:27 pm

as a general rule, i don't take too much stock in any one run, trends are our friends, if it shows another west move next run, then maybe cent fl/jax/georgia have to worry again
0 likes   
Top
StormClouds63
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 583
Age: 62
Joined: Tue May 13, 2008 11:56 am
Location: Southwest Louisiana

#3751 Postby StormClouds63 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:28 pm

East coast rider ... if this track verifies, millions will be affected ... wind, rain, potential flash flooding.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#3752 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:28 pm

Heading into N.Carolina and moving NNE, so not that far off from the 12z run but importantly it looks like it is a solid land hit this time...

Tracking up the eastern states.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
superfly

#3753 Postby superfly » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:28 pm

NYC in play?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3754 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:29 pm

156hrs....


Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
storm4u
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 651
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 7:26 am
Location: agawam, ma
Contact:
Contact storm4u

#3755 Postby storm4u » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:29 pm

wow gfs is scary again for up here
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re:

#3756 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:30 pm

superfly wrote:NYC in play?


yep, but this is only 1 model run
0 likes   
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7184
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re:

#3757 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:31 pm

x-y-no wrote:75 hours, looks like nearly a degree WSW of the 12z ... ridging still ever so slightly stronger.

Western Bahamas.
1 degree is a big deal, throw on another degree for error and then throw 30 miles for a wobble as it approaches and you have 150 miles..that scenario can easily play out
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#3758 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:31 pm

Heh, maybe this is the time for NYC to get hit
0 likes   
Top
Tyler Penland
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 63
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2011 12:32 pm
Location: Blowing Rock, NC

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3759 Postby Tyler Penland » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:31 pm

CronkPSU wrote:as a general rule, i don't take too much stock in any one run, trends are our friends, if it shows another west move next run, then maybe cent fl/jax/georgia have to worry again


My thoughts exactly. That first run east wasn't that big a deal either, until it continued. This first run west doesn't seem that big, but if it continues FL/GA/SC will be in the mix again. Remember, this is still days away, not tomorrow. I'm still liking the GA/SC border myself.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
disclaimer: This is NOT an official forecast and should NOT, under any circumstances be treated as one. Refer to the NHC and your local NWS office for official information.
0 likes   
****The above is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. I am in no way affiliated with the NWS or storm2k, and most likely don't share their opinion. Please refer to NWS/NHC products for official advisories/warnings/forecasts.****

But if you insist, trust me, I'm a physicist.
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3760 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:33 pm

168hrs... will leave it at that.

Overall impressions of 18z: slight shift to the left/west. Lets see if there is a trend with the 00z run.

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests