ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[KWT]

and I am not convinced this is a closed low... sorry...

To be fair Recon has 100% found a closed low, its not really something that is debatable in this case

Its certaibnly an interesting track and going to be a toughie to call because of the way the BoC curves even small changes in direction and heading makes a large difference in terms of when it makes landfall...

[PauleinHouston]

I see no circulation at all with this storm at the moment... just some scattered convection...

No circulation? Look at the NHC satellite pages/Nate/RBG loop.

...and just what do you think I was looking at?

No offense meant on this end. Just different opinions is all. Recon suggests closed low and the RBG seems to indicate it as well. I may be wrong and it may be elongated...just my opinion.

[KWT]

:uarrow: With that forecast,Nate may produce plenty of ACE units ( I go with around 12)

Its a tough one because much depends on the exact track and also whether the dry air stays away. The conditions aloft would suggest a major given the amount of time it has but the slow motion must cause upwelling in the end and that combined with the dry air nearby maybe enough to limit the system somewhat.

[Nimbus]

So if NATE goes into Mexico instead of stalling in the central gulf does that do anything to the east coast trough?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Gee, I wonder what we did before the models? Intuition? Hunches? I wonder how many were correct?

It was a combination of Benji the magic monkey picking a location out of a jar, Willy the town drunk throwing darts at a map, and Kazsham the town fortune teller peering at a magic 8 ball ... Kinda like the NAM

Now that made me laugh, nice one Mike.

[TYNI]

and I am not convinced this is a closed low... sorry...

To be fair Recon has 100% found a closed low, its not really something that is debatable in this case

Its certaibnly an interesting track and going to be a toughie to call because of the way the BoC curves even small changes in direction and heading makes a large difference in terms of when it makes landfall...

Yes, track will be a tricky one... hoping Texas get's the rain it needs, without major catastrophe!

[hipshot]

I see no circulation at all with this storm at the moment... just some scattered convection...

No circulation? Look at the NHC satellite pages/Nate/RBG loop.

Well, the afore mentioned coordinates for the CoC of 23.5N doesn't look right to me to my untrained
eye, it looks a lot further south than that. The 92.5W looks O.K. though.

[TYNI]

No offense meant on this end. Just different opinions is all. Recon suggests closed low and the RBG seems to indicate it as well. I may be wrong and it may be elongated...just my opinion.

No offense taken! RGB shows some circulation, just a bit less than I expect to call a TS. I went back and looked at the RGB for Maria, and I guess it's my untrained eye, but I see the closed circulation with her.

[KWT]

Well, the afore mentioned coordinates for the CoC of 23.5N doesn't look right to me to my untrained
eye, it looks a lot further south than that. The 92.5W looks O.K. though.

I think any circulation probably is weak, the main convection is to the south of the center from the looks of things.

[ronjon]

18z GFS splits off a piece of vorticity to the NE that heads toward the FL panhandle. Now thats having it both ways.

18z GFS

[craptacular]

I see no circulation at all with this storm at the moment... just some scattered convection...

No circulation? Look at the NHC satellite pages/Nate/RBG loop.

Well, the afore mentioned coordinates for the CoC of 23.5N doesn't look right to me to my untrained
eye, it looks a lot further south than that. The 92.5W looks O.K. though.

The aforementioned 23.5N was for an upper-level low, not the center of Nate. Look just north of 20. The NHC pegged the CoC at 20.2 N.

[lonelymike]

Must have been what AFMOB was talking about earlier. Another win for the GFS

[MGC]

Just don't see how Nate is going to move into the ridge over Mexico.....MGC

[Aric Dunn]

Actually taking a look at it again this evening. It appears the center is being pulled / reforming right on the edge of the convection to the south. almost fully covered.

[South Texas Storms]

18z GFS Ensembles are much further north than the operational run. They are closer to what the Euro shows.

[wxman57]

I'm not expecting any of Nate's moisture to reach much into Texas. Probably not at all.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm not expecting any of Nate's moisture to reach much into Texas. Probably not at all.

Wxman, I really don't like how you are always the bearer of bad news for us Texans...

[clfenwi]

18Z HWRF

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM NATE 15L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 7

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -92.40 LAT: 20.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -92.10 LAT: 20.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -92.10 LAT: 20.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -92.10 LAT: 20.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -92.30 LAT: 20.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 67.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -92.50 LAT: 20.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -92.70 LAT: 20.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -92.80 LAT: 20.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 972.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -92.80 LAT: 21.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 969.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 78.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -92.70 LAT: 21.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -92.80 LAT: 21.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 969.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -92.70 LAT: 22.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -92.70 LAT: 22.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -92.80 LAT: 22.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 84.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -92.90 LAT: 23.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -93.20 LAT: 23.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -93.60 LAT: 23.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 83.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -94.10 LAT: 23.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -94.60 LAT: 23.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 94.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -95.00 LAT: 23.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 959.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -95.60 LAT: 23.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 93.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -96.10 LAT: 23.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 957.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 94.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.



loop

[clfenwi]

18Z GFDL, final position is just east of Tampico, Mexico

HOUR: .0 LONG: -92.31 LAT: 20.13 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.20
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -91.82 LAT: 20.13 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.27 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.82
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -91.68 LAT: 20.25 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.40 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.41
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -91.80 LAT: 20.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.41 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.51
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -91.70 LAT: 20.19 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.94 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.93
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -91.36 LAT: 20.22 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.31
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -91.54 LAT: 20.54 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.84
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -91.77 LAT: 20.94 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.93
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -91.92 LAT: 21.12 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.98 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.94
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -92.03 LAT: 21.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.63 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.89
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -92.54 LAT: 21.78 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.10 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.92
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -92.82 LAT: 21.91 MIN PRESS (hPa): 972.92 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.95
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -92.95 LAT: 22.16 MIN PRESS (hPa): 969.56 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.54
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -93.22 LAT: 22.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 969.24 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.50
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -93.64 LAT: 22.64 MIN PRESS (hPa): 969.15 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.16
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -94.05 LAT: 22.84 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 92.24
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -94.48 LAT: 23.01 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.69 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.68
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -95.01 LAT: 23.03 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.54 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.72
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -95.65 LAT: 22.86 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.75 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.50
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -96.14 LAT: 22.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.97 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 97.14
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -96.78 LAT: 22.67 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):102.25
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -97.48 LAT: 22.32 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.70 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.34




Loop

[bella_may]

Well I hope it doesn't come here.we got enough rain with Lee!!