ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[tailgater]

It's starting to be hard to find the center now. I'm not watching it closely but it looks like it could open up to a weak wave if this keeps up.
The tiny center does so up well on this PIC.

[cycloneye]

Outflow boundaries spitting out from Ophelia is a definite sign of weakening.

[wxman57]

Definitely nowhere near 55 kts now, and those 55kt winds last night were only over a tiny area NE of the center in the heavier squalls. General wind flow around Ophelia is closer to 25-30 kts with maybe some 40-45 kt winds in the squalls to the NE.

[tobol.7uno]

Fish storm...

[tobol.7uno]

Intensity forecasts...

[tobol.7uno]

GFS Ensemble now on board with the rest of the models.

[tobol.7uno]

Weakening! The circulation has been exposed all day, and looks to be broad, may not even be closed, convection well to the northeast of the center. I think that wind shear may overtake Ophelia. Although I must say that the exposed center has become more defined over the past hour or so.

[wxman57]

As I always say, the center is always much easier to find once we get all that nasty convection out of the way...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2011

...OPHELIA REMAINS DISORGANIZED...LIKELY TO WEAKEN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 48.9W
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

[wxman57]

That ASCAT pass the NHC mentions ("several hours ago" ) as the reason for keeping Ophelia at 55 kts was at 13Z. Ophelia has weakened considerably since then. Unless they have some new data that isn't available online yet.

[drezee]

That ASCAT pass the NHC mentions ("several hours ago" ) as the reason for keeping Ophelia at 55 kts was at 13Z. Ophelia has weakened considerably since then. Unless they have some new data that isn't available online yet.

I I would use a old JB quote: The NHC normally "forecasts the upgrade/downgrade before they issue the advisory to do so..." not my words

[chrisjslucia]

Off topic I know but WHERE is Michael (Ivanhater)?! The season and especially the models forum is so quiet without him!

[Fego]

Weakening in process.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/2345 UTC 13.9N 49.0W T1.5/1.5 OPHELIA -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Look at the dry air awaiting to the west of Ophelia.

[OURAGAN]

AT NRL 13,8N / 49,3W, 1000mb, 45KTS

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 49.9W
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[bexar]

Hilary shames Ophelia now.

while Hilary is bombing out Ophelia is struggling at 45 KTs

welcome to 2011

[Epsilon_Fan]

45 kts? It looks like a darn remnant low right now...

[bexar]

doesn't look like a TS anymore.

[Cranica]

With that pathetic satellite presentation, I could see them pulling the plug at 11 tomorrow with visible images.