ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Stephanie]

you guys what should i expect tonight or tomorrow i'm in Santiago DR this place is the North central Region ?? please someone tell me something.....it was raining all day now it has stopped but since it's strenghtening and it's a category 2 what then for Santiago...

From what I can tell, you are being side-swiped by Irene. You still could get rain from Irene from her rain bands but she is moving away from you. She shouldn't come any further south, let's put it that way.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230141
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 22 20110823
013100 2111N 06811W 6967 03171 //// +080 //// 113052 052 040 001 01
013130 2111N 06813W 6967 03174 //// +080 //// 112052 053 040 000 01
013200 2111N 06815W 6967 03170 //// +080 //// 110054 055 041 000 01
013230 2111N 06818W 6967 03172 //// +085 //// 110051 052 041 000 01
013300 2111N 06820W 6970 03169 //// +085 //// 108049 050 042 000 01
013330 2111N 06822W 6967 03169 //// +082 //// 105050 051 042 001 01
013400 2111N 06825W 6966 03172 //// +083 //// 103050 051 042 001 01
013430 2112N 06827W 6967 03170 //// +085 //// 103050 050 044 001 01
013500 2112N 06829W 6968 03168 //// +084 //// 103051 052 042 001 01
013530 2112N 06832W 6967 03169 //// +080 //// 104053 053 043 001 01
013600 2112N 06834W 6968 03168 //// +080 //// 102052 052 043 000 01
013630 2112N 06837W 6966 03171 //// +084 //// 101049 050 045 000 01
013700 2112N 06839W 6967 03169 //// +086 //// 097047 047 044 001 01
013730 2112N 06841W 6967 03168 //// +084 //// 094048 048 044 002 01
013800 2112N 06844W 6967 03165 //// +083 //// 093047 047 044 001 01
013830 2112N 06846W 6969 03167 //// +082 //// 093047 047 044 002 01
013900 2112N 06848W 6967 03167 //// +082 //// 095048 048 046 002 01
013930 2113N 06851W 6967 03168 //// +080 //// 096047 048 046 004 01
014000 2113N 06853W 6968 03165 //// +083 //// 095046 046 048 004 01
014030 2113N 06855W 6966 03167 //// +081 //// 093046 046 049 004 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[jlauderdal]

Watching the Weather Channel. It seems that they are brushing off South Florida (miami/keys). There talking New York City for God's sakes!!!!

focus your attention on something other than weather channel, there is plenty here to keep you better informed

twc with cantore and norcross has been really good tonight.

norcorss definitely knows his stuff and cantore has seen plenty of tropical activity first hand...in fact, is there anyone that witnesses more severe weather than him

[SNOW_JOKE]

Making good use of the Puerto Rican sub-oceanic trench which is just underneath the Hurricane's core right now. A drop-off from surface asl to -28,232 ft deep. Obviously only surface SSTs will be effecting Irene, but a little tectonic/geography interests thrown in currently.

[StarmanHDB]

Watching the Weather Channel. It seems that they are brushing off South Florida (miami/keys). There talking New York City for God's sakes!!!!

focus your attention on something other than weather channel, there is plenty here to keep you better informed

I wouldn't totally knock TWC, but I do agree with "jlauderdal" that you can learn plenty more than what TWC will ever tell you by paying attention to what goes on here....lots of incredible information from lots of very knowledgeable people.

As for trying to appreciate just how difficult it is to forecast tracks, imagine a huge aquarium whose water level is many various depths each with many various degrees of temperature with some areas being very warm while other areas are very cold. Now imagine taking a large spoon and using that spoon to stir an area of that aquarium's warmer region in a vigorous counterclockwise motion while at the same time dropping a bit of food coloring in the middle of the vortex you just created. Can you tell where that vortex is going to travel? Granted, this is a highly simplistic example, but now you understand with what they have to contend. This written, I highly doubt that any responsible meteorologist would ever "brush off" South Florida as a possible landfall.

[HurrMark]

This is looking eerily similar to many other storms that have undergone RI in the last few years...I think (not official) that the NHC is quite conservative in their forecast, and there is no reason why this should not be a category four hurricane in the next 24-36 hours. The hot tower has become quite impressive over the last couple of hours.

[StarmanHDB]

Watching the Weather Channel. It seems that they are brushing off South Florida (miami/keys). There talking New York City for God's sakes!!!!

focus your attention on something other than weather channel, there is plenty here to keep you better informed

I wouldn't totally knock TWC, but I do agree with "jlauderdal" that you can learn plenty more than what TWC will ever tell you by paying attention to what goes on here....lots of incredible information from lots of very knowledgeable people.

As for trying to appreciate just how difficult it is to forecast tracks, imagine a huge aquarium whose water level is many various depths each with many various degrees of temperature with some areas being very warm while other areas are very cold. Now imagine taking a large spoon and using that spoon to stir an area of that aquarium's warmer region in a vigorous counterclockwise motion while at the same time dropping a bit of food coloring in the middle of the vortex you just created. Can you tell where that vortex is going to travel? Granted, this is a highly simplistic example, but now you understand with what meteorologists have to contend. This written, I highly doubt that any responsible meteorologist would ever "brush off" South Florida as a possible landfall.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230151
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 23 20110823
014100 2113N 06858W 6967 03167 //// +081 //// 093044 045 048 007 01
014130 2113N 06900W 6967 03167 //// +085 //// 086042 043 048 007 01
014200 2113N 06902W 6967 03166 //// +085 //// 082044 045 049 006 01
014230 2113N 06904W 6966 03166 //// +089 //// 079045 045 049 007 01
014300 2113N 06907W 6967 03168 //// +090 //// 081044 045 049 008 01
014330 2113N 06909W 6968 03165 //// +093 //// 086045 045 048 007 01
014400 2113N 06911W 6967 03168 //// +094 //// 090042 044 049 003 01
014430 2114N 06914W 6966 03167 //// +095 //// 091042 043 047 001 01
014500 2114N 06916W 6967 03167 //// +093 //// 091043 043 048 001 01
014530 2114N 06918W 6967 03169 //// +093 //// 090044 044 050 000 01
014600 2114N 06920W 6966 03170 //// +095 //// 090044 044 049 000 01
014630 2114N 06923W 6966 03169 //// +095 //// 090045 045 046 001 01
014700 2114N 06925W 6967 03166 //// +095 //// 087044 045 047 000 01
014730 2114N 06927W 6966 03165 //// +096 //// 086041 042 045 001 01
014800 2114N 06930W 6969 03167 //// +095 //// 086041 041 046 000 01
014830 2114N 06932W 6966 03167 //// +095 //// 085040 040 046 000 01
014900 2114N 06934W 6967 03168 //// +091 //// 084042 043 048 000 01
014930 2115N 06937W 6967 03167 //// +090 //// 084043 043 048 000 05
015000 2115N 06939W 6967 03167 //// +092 //// 081043 043 046 000 01
015030 2115N 06941W 6967 03168 //// +093 //// 081044 044 045 000 01
$$
;

[stormreader]

This is looking eerily similar to many other storms that have undergone RI in the last few years...I think (not official) that the NHC is quite conservative in their forecast, and there is no reason why this should not be a category four hurricane in the next 24-36 hours. The hot tower has become quite impressive over the last couple of hours.

Wouldn't be out of the question for it to be a solid cat 3 tomorrow morning. Could easily be 125-130 mph tomorrow morning I think.

[sunnyday]

I'm hearing that the models are moving east, and then I hear they are leaning west a bit. Please tell me which is correct. Thank you. 8-

[HurrMark]

Watching the Weather Channel. It seems that they are brushing off South Florida (miami/keys). There talking New York City for God's sakes!!!!

They are probably talking about New York because it (along with the rest of the East Coast) is in play...this probably will not be shunted out at this latitude like most storms tend to do, and if the track deviates slightly eastward (like the GFS suggests), it could have significant consequences. And even if it moves inland, it could still experience TS conditions, so it may be worth mentioning the possible impact this coming weekend. Most of the attention should be on FL-NC at this point, however.

[johngaltfla]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes


Look how she's expanding...wow!

I've seen this movie before; it looks alot like Floyd II.

God help us if it heads for the mainland. Pray for a recurve.

[SNOW_JOKE]

Looks like a eye is already starting to form on the WV feed, with a drier central core. Going to be a interesting morning watching the newest vis image coming through.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230201
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 24 20110823
015100 2115N 06943W 6969 03166 //// +095 //// 080042 042 046 002 01
015130 2115N 06946W 6967 03168 //// +095 //// 082043 043 047 000 01
015200 2115N 06948W 6969 03168 //// +095 //// 082042 043 045 001 01
015230 2115N 06950W 6969 03169 //// +094 //// 077044 045 043 000 01
015300 2115N 06953W 6969 03168 //// +095 //// 075046 046 043 000 01
015330 2115N 06955W 6967 03170 //// +095 //// 074045 046 043 001 01
015400 2115N 06957W 6969 03172 //// +098 //// 071045 045 042 000 01
015430 2115N 06959W 6965 03177 //// +096 //// 070045 046 040 000 01
015500 2115N 07002W 6969 03169 //// +099 //// 070044 045 040 000 01
015530 2116N 07004W 6969 03173 //// +093 //// 069047 047 039 000 01
015600 2116N 07006W 6967 03174 //// +091 //// 069049 049 038 000 01
015630 2116N 07009W 6965 03177 //// +090 //// 069050 050 036 000 01
015700 2116N 07011W 6968 03173 //// +084 //// 069050 050 036 000 01
015730 2116N 07013W 6965 03179 //// +078 //// 071051 051 036 000 01
015800 2116N 07016W 6969 03178 //// +077 //// 069053 055 036 000 01
015830 2116N 07018W 6971 03174 //// +079 //// 069053 055 037 000 01
015900 2116N 07020W 6965 03178 //// +088 //// 066051 051 035 000 01
015930 2116N 07023W 6969 03177 //// +091 //// 065051 051 036 000 01
020000 2116N 07025W 6965 03185 //// +095 //// 062047 048 /// /// 05
020030 2114N 07026W 6967 03187 //// +095 //// 064045 045 /// /// 05
$$
;

[CronkPSU]

I'm hearing that the models are moving east, and then I hear they are leaning west a bit. Please tell me which is correct. Thank you. 8-

models moved east til the 6PMish runs came through, they had the new data in and moved west

[stormhunter7]

Everyone did see the last VDM... Irene now has a Closed Eyewall of 35nm

[Jag95]

Looks like a eye is already starting to form on the WV feed, with a drier central core. Going to be a interesting morning watching the newest vis image coming through.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

I think so too. Wouldn't be surprised to see that eye clear out pretty soon.

[HURAKAN]